Johannes Bergh

• Bergh, Johannes & Hesstvedt, Stine (2026). Kjønnsgap i stemmegivning: En tredje bølge? In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The modern gender gap in voting, in which men are more likely to vote for center-right parties than women and women tend to vote more for center-left parties, reached a new high in Norway in the 2025-election. The gender gap has never been larger in the close to 70-year history of the Norwegian National Election Study. The gap is especially large among young, Generation Z voters. We find that generational replacement contributes to a rise in the gender gap over time. This suggests that the gap may keep rising in the years to come. Though there are differences between men and women in their views on gender roles and gender equality, these attitudes are not the main drives of gender differences in voting. Rather, attitudinal differences regarding economic issues such as taxes and public spending, as well as immigration policy, accounts for much of the gender gap in voting.

• Bergh, Johannes; Hesstvedt, Stine; Karlsen, Rune & Lunde, Therese (2026). Dagsorden og sakseierskap. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. p. 133–154. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter is about political issues in the 2025 election. The most important issues for Norwegian voters in the election, staring with the most important, were taxes, health care, foreign and defense policy, other economic issues, climate/environmental issues, immigration and education. Foreign policy and defense policy rose dramatically in importance since the last election in 2021. The last time these issues were high on the agenda was in the 1980s. Climate change and environmental issues have dramatically declined in importance, whereas economic issues were top of mind for voters in 2025. The two winners in the election, the Progress Party and the Labor Party, have high levels of issue ownership of economic issues. The Progress Party has gained in issue ownership on a number of issues since the last election, while the Conservative Party has lost.

• Aardal, Bernt; Bergh, Johannes & Hesstvedt, Stine (2026). Ideologi og polarisering. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. p. 71–108. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The chapter studies the ideological positions of Norwegian voters in connection with the 2025-election. The analyses build on several previous studies from the Norwegian National Election Study that map the ideological political landscape in Norway over time. Norwegian politics is multidimensional. A factor analysis reveals 6 ideological dimensions on which voters hold relatively consistent opinions. They are 1) an economic left-right scale, 2) a climate/ environmental policy scale, 3) an immigration policy scale, 4) a global-national orientation scale, 5) a religious-secular scale and 6) a center-periphery scale. We find evidence of an ideological rightwing shift in the Norwegian electorate from 2021 to 2025; voters are on average moving in the direction of parties on the right on several of these dimensions. We also see evidence of increased ideological polarization in the electorate.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Finseraas, Henning (2026). Valgdeltakelse, politikk og mobilisering. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. p. 375–391. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Voter turnout in the 2025 parliamentary election increased by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous election, reaching 80 percent – the highest level in any parliamentary election since 1989. Drawing on data from the Norwegian National Election Study, this chapter discusses possible political explanations for this increase. The analysis focuses in particular on voters who did not participate in 2021 but were mobilized in 2025 and compares them with voters who turned out in both elections. There are reasons to believe that intermittent voters have weaker ties to political parties and are more easily mobilized by campaign strategies, the question of government formation, or the political issues that come to the forefront during the campaign. A central question in this chapter is therefore whether there are indications that the issues emphasised during the election campaign contributed to mobilization, and whether this mobilization exhibits ideological or political bias.

• Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Karlsen, Rune (2026). Skiftende preferanser: Velgeroverganger ved stortingsvalget 2025. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. p. 155–171. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Norwegian voters are less loyal to political parties and more likely to switch vote between elections than in earlier years. In the 2025 parliamentary election, 39 percent of all voters changed their vote from the previous election in 2021 – this includes voters who took part in both elections. The level of volatility is even higher when including those who switched in or out of the “no vote” group: 55 percent. The two winners in the election, the Progress Party and the Labor Party, both won over voters that supported the Center Party in 2021. Young voters and especially young women tend to switch their vote more often than others. Tactical voting played a role in the election, but we see no evidence that it determined the balance of power in Parliament.

• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2026). Høyrebølge, men en rødgrønn seier. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. p. 11–26. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The 2025 Norwegian parliamentary (Storting) election was a win for the governing Labor Party. The five center-left parties barely retained their majority in Stortinget, thus enabling Prime Minister Støre of the Labor Party to continue governing. The election was also a win for the right-wing populist Progress Party, whose support surged to a record high. This book is an in-depth analysis of the election, but also of Norwegian politics and voter behavior, generally. This introduction provides an overview of the outcome of the election and some main trends in Norwegian politics. It also outlines the rest of the book's 21 chapters.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Bergh, Johannes (2026). Tilbake på velgernes dagsorden? Utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk ved stortingsvalget 2025. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. p. 237–259. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter examines the role of foreign and security policy in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election. It shows that these issues were high on voters’ agenda after several decades of low salience, reflecting a more unsettled geopolitical context. The specific issues that mattered varied between voter groups. The Israel–Palestine conflict was especially important on the left, while defense policy was more prominent among center-right voters. The chapter also shows that conflict patterns differed across issues: support for Ukraine and strengthening the Norwegian defense were marked by broad agreement, whereas attitudes towards Israel and the United States followed clearer left–right divisions. Overall, foreign and security policy had limited independent importance for vote choice when studied as positional issues. However, these issues also mattered through a valence logic, by shaping voters’ assessments of competence, credibility, and governing capacity.

• Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum; Hesstvedt, Stine; Karlsen, Rune & Magin, Melanie (2026). Konflikt og mobilisering: En ny fase i norsk politikk? In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. p. 511–524. doi: 10.23865/cdf.296. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This concluding chapter summarizes the main findings of the book and discusses what explains the outcome of the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election. The chapter highlights five central explanations: i) an ideological shift to the right, ii) increased voter turnout with partisan consequences, iii) the growing importance of economic concerns, iv) the role of foreign and security policy, and v) the media’s influence on voter’s political priorities. The chapter concludes by discussing what the 2025 election tells us about broader trends in Norwegian politics in the 2020s.

• Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (2026). The 2025 Norwegian election. West European Politics. 49(5), p. 1370–1382. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2026.2646662. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Kleven, Øyvin (2026). Social conservatism and changing party preferences among immigrants in Norway. Politics. 46(4), p. 834–855. doi: 10.1177/02633957251405201. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The voting patterns of immigrants in Western European countries have for decades tilted towards centre-left parties – a phenomenon referred to as an ‘iron rule’. Evidence from recent elections is suggestive of a breakup of this pattern. Are migrant voters shifting towards parties on the right, and if so, why? We study this question using quality panel survey data from the Norwegian local elections of 2019 and 2023 with uniquely large samples of immigrants, second-generation Norwegians, as well as natives. The 2023 election was a big win for the right. We test whether shifting voter allegiances of voters with immigrant or second-generation backgrounds can be explained by social conservatism and religiosity. Results indicate that social conservatism among religiously active voters is not the main cause of this shift. Rather, pocketbook issues such as taxes are the main driver. The voting patterns of migrants seem to be aligning more with those of native voters, compared to what we have seen in previous studies.

• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2025). Voting Behaviour in Norway: Social Structure, Ideology, and Issue Ownership. In Kolltveit, Kristoffer; Allern, Elin Haugsgjerd; Braut-Hegghammer, Målfrid & Rasch, Bjørn Erik (Ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Norwegian Politics. Oxford University Press. p. 258–282. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This handbook provides a comprehensive examination of Norway’s political institutions, electoral politics, public policymaking, and international relations. As the introductory chapter highlights, Norway is a highly consolidated, homogeneous, corporatist, and consensus-orientated democracy having faced rapid economic growth, significant government access to massive oil revenues, deindustrialization, public-sector expansion, increasing cultural pluralism, and economic inequality, as well as growing party system fragmentation and the decline of the once dominant Social Democratic Party. Each chapter offers foundational knowledge about the present Norwegian system while presenting state-of-the-art overviews of key issues and findings drawn from the most relevant research in their respective fields. Additionally, the chapters provide original analyses of more specialized topics or trace historical developments and overarching trends. The handbook is designed primarily for scholars and students specializing in the covered topics, but it is also intended to serve a secondary readership that includes politicians, journalists, and other individuals interested in gaining a deeper understanding of Norwegian politics. The authors, selected for their in-depth knowledge and expertise as well as their proven track record of publishing research in highly ranked international outlets, offer valuable insights into the different aspects of Norwegian politics. Although the primary focus is on research within political science, contributions from disciplines such as public law, history, and education science are also included. This diverse set of authors brings extensive expertise and presents the chapters in an accessible manner, making this handbook an indispensable resource for understanding Norwegian politics.

• Granö, Sofi & Bergh, Johannes (2025). Does local context matter for individual level turnout? Analysing the effect of the social context in the neighbourhood, in Norwegian elections. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. p. 1–22. doi: 10.1080/17457289.2025.2549116. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The purpose of this paper is to study how the social composition of a neighbourhood affects an individual’s propensity to vote. Numerous studies have looked at aggregate level contextual effects on turnout, where e.g. ethnic composition, social inequality, and educational attainment in the area have been shown to affect participation. We add to existing research in three ways. (1) While previous research mostly studies national and regional level variation, we study a smaller and more immediate context around the voter: the local neighbourhood (the smallest geographic unit available in official Norwegian statistics, known as grunnkrets). (2) We use individual level data from the Norwegian electoral roll, with validated voting and numerous other social background variables. (3) While most previous studies are cross-sectional, we use panel data from three elections to study how changes in the social context affect a voter’s propensity to vote. Our findings suggest that the contextual effects are highly contingent on individual level resources and characteristics. We find that educational attainment of people in the neighbourhood, income inequality, unemployment, occupation (student), household type (children), mean age, and immigrants’ share of the population all affect propensity to vote in national elections.

• Bergh, Johannes & Strømsnes, Kristin (2025). Et levende demokrati blant manntallsførte samer: Om deltakelse i og mellom valg. In Saglie, Jo; Berg-Nordlie, Mikkel & Pettersen, Torunn (Ed.), Sametingsvalget 2021: Et partisystem i endring?. Cappelen Damm AS. p. 135–154. doi: 10.23865/cdf.247.ch6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Sametingsvalget 2021: Et partisystem i endring? tar for seg sametingspolitikken i Norge – særlig det som skjedde rundt valget i 2021, men også de lange linjene i samepolitikken. Datagrunnlaget er velgerundersøkelsene som har blitt gjennomført ved hvert sametingsvalg siden 2009, men også andre kilder som informantintervjuer. Ved sametingsvalget i 2021 ble noen velkjente mønstre fra tidligere valg videreført, men noen tydelige brudd oppstod også. Etter valget framsto Sametingets partisystem som radikalt endret: mens Norske Samers Riksforbund og Arbeiderpartiet tidligere hadde vært de to største partiene, ble Nordkalottfolket denne gangen nest størst. Dette innebar også en polarisering – det ble større avstand og skarpere tone mellom de to største partiene. Gjennom åtte kapitler dekker Sametingsvalget 2021: et partisystem i endring? denne utviklingen. Boka åpner med et innføringskapittel om 2021-valget og hvordan man kan forstå det i et historisk perspektiv, og fortsetter med ett kapittel om hvert av de tre største partiene, med grundige diskusjoner av partienes utvikling og analyser av deres velgergrunnlag. Et eget kapittel tar for seg de geografiske skillelinjene i norsk samepolitikk, som kan sies å drive en del av endringene i partisystemet. To kapitler handler om politisk deltakelse i og mellom valg: et overblikkskapittel, og et kapittel som går nærmere inn på unge velgeres motivasjon for å delta i valg. Det siste kapitlet tar for seg hvilke grupper blant samene som opplever mest hets og diskriminering, også med et blikk på partienes velgergrupper.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2025). Hva skjer med førstegangsvelgerne? Valgdeltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2023. In Saglie, Jo; Segaard, Signe Bock & Christensen, Dag Arne (Ed.), Lokalvalgene 2023: maktforskyvning og normalisering. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 71–95. doi: 10.23865/cdf.251.ch3. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Based on data from the electoral roll for all voters, we find significant variation in turnout among different social groups. Voters with only primary education have the lowest turnout, and the gap between educational groups has increased. The increased differences between educational groups are primarily because turnout among those with the lowest education has declined. Women vote more than men, and these differences are greatest among the youngest. Voter turnout among voters with an immigrant background decreased in 2023, and much of the overall decline in voter turnout can be attributed to this voter group. The chapter also looks at the voter turnout of first-time voters (18-year-olds). On average, the turnout level among 18-year-olds is relatively high, but there are large variations. In the group of young people who are neither working nor in education, the turnout is as low as 25 per cent. Conversely, there are groups of young people with significantly higher turnout than the average. Over 70 per cent of high school students graduating in general studies voted in the election. Thus, there are also significant social biases in voter turnout among the young, which, among other things, are reflected in differences between various study programs. We also look at the effect of a campaign from Amedia (’Ditt valg 2023’) where students received free access to the company’s local newspapers through their schools during the election campaign period. We do not find that this measure had an effect on turnout.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Finseraas, Henning (2025). Voting alone: Early voting and turnout in couples. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 96. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102960. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Low-turnout groups have less knowledge and understanding of politics. Therefore, their decision to vote may depend more on their family/partner, in which case voting is more of a social than an individual act. The increased use of early voting makes voting more individualized, and we ask if that has a detrimental effect on the propensity to vote in certain groups. If the partner votes prior to election day does that influence the turnout decision of the other partner? Based on administrative voter data covering the entire Norwegian population over several elections, we find that low-propensity voters in couples are demobilized by a partner's early vote, whereas, if anything, the opposite is true for high-propensity voters. There is no demobilization effect in a placebo analysis of couples who divorce between two elections, which suggests that demobilization among couples is not purely driven by selection into early voting.

• Bergh, Johannes & Aalberg, Toril (2023). Regjeringsskifter og regjeringsslitasje - velgernes vurderinger og preferanser. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 30–44. Full text in Research Archive
• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Bergh, Johannes (2023). Explaining the Surge of the Populist Radical Right: A Time-Series Analysis of the Effects of Immigration and the Economy in Norway. Political Behavior. doi: 10.1007/s11109-023-09887-6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Populist radical right parties have become major forces in most Western democracies. Previous research has provided conflicting evidence on whether their electoral support can be explained by two structural developments: economic decline and increased immigration. Using time-series regression and almost 30 years of aggregated monthly polling data, we perform a novel test of the effects of economic decline and immigration on aggregate support for the Norwegian Progress Party. We find that the most beneficial time-periods for this party seem to be those of rising immigration and a booming economy. However, our findings also suggest that the effect of rising immigration is halted when the party holds government office. Thus, voter mobilization based on anti-immigration messages may represent a challenge for the Norwegian Progress Party and potentially other such parties going forward as they may become victims of their own success.

• Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Karlsen, Rune (2023). Stortingsvalget 2021: Velgerne går mot venstre. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 13–29. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2023). Valgdeltakelse, forhåndsstemmegivning og familiens betydning for politisk deltakelse. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 229–246. Full text in Research Archive
• Hesstvedt, Stine; Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt Olav (2023). Ideologi og polarisering ved stortingsvalget 2021. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 142–179. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2023). Konklusjon: Politikk i urolige tider. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 334–339. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Hesstvedt, Stine & Karlsen, Rune (2023). Sakseierskap og dagsorden ved stortingsvalget 2021. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 45–74. Full text in Research Archive
• Fladmoe, Audun & Bergh, Johannes (2022). The use of adjustment weights in voter surveys. Correcting for panel attrition and nonresponse can produce less accurate estimates of voting behavior. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 78. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102486. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Declining response rates make it harder to justify survey data as adequately representative. Adjustment weighting is often used to address this problem, but the premise of that approach is that people within a specific social category who respond to a survey are representative of those that do not. This paper compares selfreported voting in a low response panel survey and a “gold standard” national election survey, with the actual election result in the Norwegian parliamentary election in 2017, and estimate the effects of various inverse probability weights. The results indicate that the panel sample becomes less accurate in predicting the election result when weighted for age than without the use of such a weight. Young adults who respond to surveys may not be representative of this age group as a whole, especially in low response panel surveys.

• Aardal, Bernt & Bergh, Johannes (2022). The 2021 Norwegian election. West European Politics. p. 1522–1534. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2062136. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Storting election of September 2021 signalled the end of eight years in office for of the centre-right government led by Premier Erna Solberg. During this period, different constellations of parties had been in power: first the Conservatives and the Progress Party, later the Liberal Party and finally the Christian Democrats joined the coalition. However, due to policy disagreements, particularly with the Liberals and the Christian Democrats, the Progress Party left the coalition in 2020, just a year ahead of the election. Climate and immigration policies were at the core of the disagreements. At the 2021 election, the five centre-left (or red-green) parties won the majority of seats and votes, but did not succeed in establishing a majority government. Instead, the Labour Party and the Centre Party formed a minority government, supported by the Socialist Left Party. The overriding issue at the election was climate and environmental concerns. Somewhat unexpectedly, the Green Party did not fare particularly well at the election, and fell short of the four percent threshold for adjustment seats by the tiniest margin. Data from the Norwegian National Election Study shows that the Greens only received 11 per cent of the climate vote, while more than 60 per cent voted for other red-green parties. Social inequality was also high on the agenda, in particular by left of centre voters. The number of effective parties rose from 5.5 to 6.4, increasing the fractionalisation of the party system, which may be worrying if it continues.

• Bergh, Johannes & Christensen, Dag Arne (2022). Getting out the vote in different electoral contexts: the effect of impersonal voter mobilization techniques in middle and high salience Norwegian elections. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. doi: 10.1080/17457289.2022.2051149. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article reports on two sets of field experiments testing text messaging (SMS) among native Norwegian voters and live phone calls among young voters eligible to vote in their first election. The two sets of experiments are done in both local and national elections. Most previous studies of election salience and voter mobilization use data from countries with generally lower levels of turnout than in Northern Europe (including Norway). This article addresses how the effectiveness of voter mobilization varies by election salience, in a generally high-salience political context. We find the two experiments to be more effective in low/middle salience elections, with turnout around 60 percent, than in high salience elections with turnout higher than 75 percent.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2021). Mobiliseringsvalget 2019: Hadde kommunereformen noen betydning? In Saglie, Jo; Segaard, Signe Bock & Christensen, Dag Arne (Ed.), Lokalvalget 2019: Nye kommuner - nye valg?. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 87–115. doi: 10.23865/noasp.134.ch4. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Denne antologien handler om de mange lokalvalgene som ble holdt rundt om i Norge 9. september 2019. Med utgangspunkt i velgerundersøkelsene som er gjennomført ved hvert lokalvalg siden 1995, tar boken gjennom ti kapitler for seg dels valg, velgeratferd, valgkamp og valgutfall, og dels politisk deltakelse og politisk tillit mellom valgene. Det er i kommunene flest innbyggere har anledning til å delta i politikkutformingen, og lokalnivået spiller ofte en viktig rolle i den enkeltes hverdagsliv. Hensikten med boken er derfor også å forstå hvordan lokaldemokratiet fungerer mellom valgene. Lokalvalget i 2019 var preget av høy valgdeltakelse, mobilisering og protest gjennom fokus på politiske saker som bompenger, klima og kommunereform. Kommunereformen var ikke bare valgkamptema, men en sentral rammebetingelse for lokalvalget i 2019. Kommunesammenslåing er derfor et gjennomgående tema i boken. Ett emne er hva innbyggerne mener om kommunereformen og dens mulige konsekvenser. Flere kapitler utforsker sammenslåingenes betydning for ulike sider ved lokaldemokratiet: lokale partisystemer, valgdeltakelse, personstemmegivning, partienes nominasjoner, og representasjon i kommunestyrene. Samlet sett er antologien en statusrapport for lokaldemokratiet i det første valget etter kommunereformen. Boken henvender seg til alle som er interessert i utviklingen av det norske lokaldemokratiet, men særlig til studenter, forskere, journalister og politisk aktive.

• Arnesen, Sveinung; Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Aardal, Bernt (2021). Support for electoral system reform among voters and politicians: Studying information effects through survey experiments. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 71. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102313. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Does information about the consequences of proposals to change the Norwegian parliamentary electoral system influence voters’ and politicians’ attitudes towards the system? Is the willingness to accept change greater among voters/politicians who “lose” under the present electoral system? These questions are illuminated using empirical data from two identical survey experiments, with responses from both voters and politicians about 1) increased proportionality between parties (more seats for smaller parties) and 2) increased geographical proportionality (stronger representation for the more populous counties). The results show that being informed about the consequences of the proposals has a major effect on voters’ and politicians’ attitudes. This applies especially to the question of increased proportionality between parties, where feedback was particularly negative from respondents who were told that the proposal might weaken the larger parties’ representation and make it more difficult to establish viable governments. The responses to the question about increased proportionality between parties were also influenced by partisanship; politicians who belonged to or voters who voted for one of the smaller parties favour increased proportionality. We also find that there is limited support for the proposal to distribute parliamentary seats according to the number of inhabitants in the counties, and this support is further reduced when the respondents are informed that the measure will increase representation from the more populous parts of the country.

• Saglie, Jo; Bergh, Johannes; Gitlesen, Jens Petter & Rommetvedt, Hilmar (2021). Hva skjedde ved valget? Nasjonale trender og lokale variasjoner. In Saglie, Jo; Segaard, Signe Bock & Christensen, Dag Arne (Ed.), Lokalvalget 2019: Nye kommuner - nye valg?. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 27–61. doi: 10.23865/noasp.134.ch2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The aim of this chapter is to provide a broad overview of national trends and local variations at the 2019 local elections – the first elections to be held in the new, merged municipalities and counties. Looking at the nationwide results, the government parties as well as the Labour Party suffered losses, while the other opposition parties – especially the Centre Party – were the winners. While welfare policy has been high on the voter agenda in previous elections, the environment and climate change were the most important issues this time, especially among young voters. The voter agenda nevertheless varied between municipalities. Climate and the environment were, like the issue of toll roads, most important in the cities. In many peripheral districts, on the other hand, amalgamation of municipalities and other centralizing public sector reforms were significant issues. The centre-periphery dimension is still important in Norwegian politics, and it has contributed to the Centre Party’s gains – particularly in a number of former Labour Party strongholds in northern Norway. Local conditions also contribute to variation. Looking at results from individual municipalities, local deviations from the national trend have increased. Moreover, an increasing share of voters says that local issues were important for their vote.

• Hesstvedt, Stine; Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2021). Kampen om dagsorden: et historisk tilbakeblikk på stortingsvalgene 1957–2017. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning (TfS). 62(3), p. 273–292. doi: 10.18261/ISSN.1504-291X-2021-03-04. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Valgkamper blir gjerne omtalt som en «kamp om dagsorden» (Valen, 1999). Hvilke saker som opptar velgerne, og hvorvidt politikere kan å overbevise velgere om at de har de beste politiske løsningene, er tett forbundet med valgresultatet. I et demokratisk perspektiv er det også avgjørende at partiene evner å presentere politiske løsninger på saksfelt som velgerne opplever som viktige for deres ve og vel (Dahl, 2000). Mens valgene i etterkrigsårene handlet om gjenreising etter krigen og utbygging av velferdsstaten, har store samfunnsendringer som velstandsvekst, utdanningseksplosjon, globalisering og innvandring presset frem nye stridsspørsmål og endret velgernes prioriteringer. Når vi på sensommeren i 2021 går inn i årets valgkamp, er bakteppet en lang periode med pandemi og unntakstilstand samt stor oppmerksomhet om distriktspolitikk og sentraliseringsreformer. Hvordan vil den se ut i forhold til andre valg? I denne forskningskommentaren setter vi årets valgkamp i en historisk kontekst ved å spørre: Hva har vært viktige saker for norske velgere siden andre verdenskrig? Kjennetegnes den norske dagsorden av stabilitet eller endringer fra valg til valg? Hvilke partier nyter tillit på saker som figurerer høyt på den politiske dagsorden, og hvordan endrer dette seg over tid? Det finnes få studier som har undersøkt velgernes dagsorden i norsk etterkrigstid sett under ett (men se Bjørklund, 2020). Ved hjelp av data fra stortingsvalgundersøkelsene identifiserer og diskuterer vi fire hovedtyper av saker som har opptatt velgere i Norge. Vi peker på de «glemte» sakene som har forsvunnet fra dagsorden over tid – som boligpolitikk og forsvarspolitikk; de «nye» sakene som har blitt viktigere i valgkampene i den senere tid, som innvandring og klima; og de «tidløse sakene» som har stått på dagsorden i mer eller mindre hele 60-årsperioden, som skattepolitikk og eldreomsorg. Vi tar også for oss en sak som har vært svært viktig for utviklingen i norsk politikk, men som er i en kategori for seg selv: spørsmålet om norsk medlemskap i Den europeiske union (EU). Til slutt undersøker vi velgernes tillit til partiene i disse sakene og studerer sakseierskap i de senere periodene (1997–2017), da spørsmål om best politikk på ulike politikkområder ble inkludert i valgundersøkelsen. Underveis diskuterer vi hva slags betydning dagsorden og sakseierskap har hatt for partienes oppslutning og stemmegivning. Til grunn for gjennomgangen ligger tverrsnittsdata fra stortingsvalgundersøkelsene for perioden 1957 til 2017. Helt siden 1957 har Valgforskningsprogrammet ved Institutt for samfunnsforskning, først i samarbeid med Norsk Gallup og siden 1977 i samarbeid med Statistisk sentralbyrå, stilt et landsrepresentativt utvalg av norske velgere spørsmål om hva som var de viktigste sakene for deres stemmegivning. I tillegg har prosjektet siden 1997 stilt spørsmål om sakseierskap – nemlig om hvilke partier velgerne mener har best politikk på enkelte saksfelt.

• Eichhorn, Jan & Bergh, Johannes (2021). Lowering the Voting Age to 16 in Practice: Processes and Outcomes Compared. Parliamentary Affairs. 74(3), p. 507–521. doi: 10.1093/pa/gsab019. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Research into the possible consequences of lowering the voting age to 16 used to be rather speculative in nature, as there were few countries that had implemented earlier enfranchisement. This has changed over the past decade. We now have a range of countries in different locations, mostly in Europe and South America, where 16- and 17-year-olds can vote in some or all elections. In many of those places empirical research has given us insights into the experiences of young people and the impact of those changes on political discussions. However, so far these studies have largely been conducted individually in each country, which makes comparisons difficult. This article summarises the key insights from empirical research across countries with lower voting ages. It identifies common patterns, but also highlights differences. Overall, the impact appears to not be negative and often positive in terms of political engagement and civic attitudes. However, the comprehensiveness of effects varies. The article offers some possible frameworks to understand differences, in particular by reflecting on the processes that led to voting franchise changes, but also indicates where gaps in knowledge remain, and what sort of research would be required to produce systematically comparable results.

• Bergh, Johannes; Steen-Johnsen, Kari & Ødegård, Guro (2021). Det politiske generasjonsgapet. In Ødegård, Guro & Pedersen, Willy (Ed.), UNGDOMMEN. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 337–360. doi: 10.23865/noasp.142.ch15. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In the last few years, there has been a rise in political activism among young people across the democratic world. We have seen them protesting against racism and demanding stricter climate policies. This chapter deals with political participation, values and the political agenda of young people in Norway over the last 20 years. Have there been changes over time, perhaps linked to digitalization and globalization, during this period? Have these developments led to a political generation gap between young people, adults and the elderly? Our analyses do indeed reveal an increasing age gap in which young people have different political preferences than persons in the older age groups. While these differences are greater now than at any other point in the last 20 years, they still remain moderate. Young people hold more radical positions on climate policy, they are more liberal concerning immigration, and they are somewhat to the right of the adult population when it comes to economic policy. Voter turnout and other forms of political participation have increased among people under the age of 30. Younger people are more prone to mobilize for political activism on digital platforms through their social networks than people in the older age groups are. Using perspectives from the sociology of generations, we discuss the implications of our findings for the political mobilization of young people in a digital future.

• Bergh, Johannes & Saglie, Jo (2021). Politisk avstand ved sametingsvalg: En kartlegging av det samiske ideologiske landskapet i Norge. In Saglie, Jo; Berg-Nordlie, Mikkel & Pettersen, Torunn (Ed.), Sametingsvalg: Tilhørighet, deltakelse, partipolitikk. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 181–204. doi: 10.23865/noasp.137.ch7. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In this chapter, we explore the ideological and political landscape of Sámi electoral politics. Which ideological and political cleavages are important in Sámi politics, and how do these cleavages manifest themselves in voting patterns and party differences? We use the Sámi election surveys from 2013 to 2017. The analysis describes a Sámi political landscape with small ideological and political differences, where primarily the Progress Party stands out. Voters who favour this party are far from other party voters on the central issue of Sámi self-determination, and there is a mutually frosty relationship between Progress Party voters and other voters. On some issues, Conservative Party voters are in an intermediate position between the Progress Party voters and the rest, and voters for the Nordkalottfolket party also have a somewhat different profile. However, the differences between the remaining parties are less clear. This also applies to the two main competitors, the NSR and the Labour Party, and the political distances found in our survey questions cannot explain the pattern of coalition formation in the Sámi Parliament. The relatively small distances between the largest parties can be advantageous in dealing outwardly with the Norwegian state. Internally, however, small political distances can blur the political landscape in the eyes of the voters and make it difficult to choose between parties.

• Bergh, Johannes & Saglie, Jo (2021). Passive innmeldte: Om hjemmesitterne ved sametingsvalg. In Saglie, Jo; Berg-Nordlie, Mikkel & Pettersen, Torunn (Ed.), Sametingsvalg: Tilhørighet, deltakelse, partipolitikk. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 165–179. doi: 10.23865/noasp.137.ch6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The 2017 Sámi parliamentary elections saw an increase in turnout (measured in percent) for the first time since 2005. Although voter registration had increased, the number of votes increased even more. However, considering that one must register in the electoral roll to vote, 30 percent non-voters is a significant proportion. In this chapter, we use the voter survey to describe the non-voters. Regarding institutional factors, the analyses confirm the findings in Owren’s chapter: Although most of the electorate did not find it difficult to vote in the Sámi parliamentary elections, the exception was non-voters living in municipalities where only advance voting is allowed. Regarding individual factors, political resources matter. People with less education were especially overrepresented among the non-voters. Motivation is also important, and the non-voters were naturally less interested in politics in general and Sámi politics in particular. Those who joined the electoral roll to influence Sámi politics were seldom non-voters. On the other hand, those who signed up to express their Sámi identity were almost equally represented among the voters and non-voters. Although an instrumental motive for registration leads to high turnout, an expressive motive does not hinder electoral participation. We also find that non-voters to a lesser extent felt that their voice mattered or that there were political alternatives that represented their views. On the other hand, voters and non-voters did not differ substantially regarding perceived political differences between the parties and lists.

• Saglie, Jo; Mörkenstam, Ulf & Bergh, Johannes (2020). Political Cleavages in Indigenous Representation: The Case of the Norwegian and Swedish Sámediggis. Nationalism & Ethnic Politics. 26(2), p. 105–125. doi: 10.1080/13537113.2020.1754555. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Using Lipset and Rokkan’s cleavage theory in an Indigenous context, the article compares political cleavages in internal Sámi politics in Norway and Sweden. The authors discuss the historical legacies of each country’s policies toward the Sámi and subsequent development of party systems before using survey data to analyze cleavages within the Sámi electorates. The analysis shows a prominent cleavage in Sámi politics in Norway regarding the extent of Sámi self-determination, whereas the main cleavage in Sweden can be found in the category-split between reindeer herders and other Sámi created by state policy. Contemporary cleavages in Indigenous politics may, thus, be deeply rooted in nation-building processes.

• Ødegård, Guro; Bergh, Johannes & Saglie, Jo (2020). Why Did Young Norwegians Mobilize: External Events or Early Enfranchisement? In Eichhorn, Jan & Bergh, Johannes (Ed.), Lowering the Voting Age to 16: Learning from Real Experiences Worldwide. Palgrave Macmillan. p. 189–210. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Since the terrorist attacks in Norway in July 2011, there has been a general rise in political participation among young Norwegians. This was evident just a few weeks after the attack, when turnout among first-time voters (the age group 18–21) went up 11 percentage points in the local elections (to 46%). In those September 2011 elections, the voting age was lowered from 18 to 16 in a selected group of 20 municipalities. Turnout was also quite high among 16- and 17-year-olds (58%). This level of participation has remained stable among young voters in later elections. Relying on quantitative data on turnout by age, membership in political youth parties and qualitative interviews with first-time voters, the chapter discusses how three different mechanisms—life cycle, generational and period effects—may explain this mobilization. The authors find strong life-cycle effects which account for stable differences between age groups.

• Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (2020). Norsk politikk siden 1945. In Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (Ed.), Valg og politikk siden 1945. Velgere, institusjoner og kritiske hendelser i norsk politisk historie. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 13–37. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag & Matland, Richard (2020). Inviting immigrants in: Field experiments in voter mobilization among immigrants in Norway. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 66. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102160. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper reports on a randomized field experiment testing three direct mail mobilization appeals among immigrants in the 2015 Norwegian Local Elections. The three letters all included a general encouragement to vote in addition to practical information about voting. One paragraph was varied to present different mobilization messages. They were: 1) a message guaranteeing ballot secrecy. 2) a message with consistent prescriptive and descriptive norms emphasizing the importance of immigrant participation and that participation has been increasing. 3) a message with inconsistent prescriptive and descriptive norms emphasizing the importance of immigrant participation, but noting immigrant participation has been low. All three letters increased turnout among both first time voters and previously eligible voters. The effect is strongest, 5.8 percentage points, among those who were eligible to vote for the first time. Control group turnout was 20.9 percent. Among previously eligible immigrant voters there is an average treatment effect of 3.3 percentage point from a baseline of 40.2 percent turnout. In comparison to previous GOTV mail studies, these are very strong effects, far exceeding the typical response among low propensity voters. GOTV letters can therefore be an effective way to mobilize immigrant voters to participate in host country elections.

• Bergh, Johannes & Christensen, Dag Arne (2019). Sporadiske velgere eller permanente hjemmesittere? In Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Ed.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 223–236. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Matland, Richard E. (2019). When is a reminder enough? Text message voter mobilization in a European context. Political Behavior. p. 1–21. doi: 10.1007/s11109-019-09578-1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Sending text messages reminding people to vote has only been examined as a mobilization tool in three studies, two of them done in the United States. The results from these studies are mixed. We investigate this tool’s effectiveness using a field experiment in a different context, municipal elections in Norway. We find strong mobilization effects among groups traditionally low in participation (immigrants and youth voters). Young native Norwegians show an intent-to-treat (ITT) effect of 4.58% points, foreign nationals who have recently established Norwegian residency show an ITT effect of 2.93% points, and among immigrants who have lived in Norway for 7 years or more the treatment effect is 2.7% points. Even among native Norwegian voters over 30, with a baseline turnout of 73%, text messages generate a 0.96% points increase in turnout.

• Arnesen, Sveinung; Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Aardal, Bernt (2019). Påvirker det å bli informert om konsekvenser av endringer i stortingvalgordningen velgernes holdninger til den? En surveyeksperimentell tilnærming. Norsk statsvitenskapelig tidsskrift. 35(2), p. 62–76. doi: 10.18261/issn.1504-2936-2019-02-01. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Påvirker informasjon om konsekvenser av forslag om å endre stortingsvalgordningen velgernes holdninger til valgordningen? Er endringsvilligheten større blant velgere som «taper» med den nåværende valgordningen? Spørsmålene belyses med bakgrunn i empiri fra tre survey-eksperimenter om 1) økt partimessig proporsjonalitet (bedre mandatuttelling for mindre partier), 2) økt geografisk proporsjonalitet (sterkere representasjon av de folkerike fylkene) og 3) økt innslag av personvalg. Resultatene viser at informasjon om konsekvenser har svært stor betydning for spørsmålet om økt partimessig proporsjonalitet. Respondenter som fikk informasjon om at forslaget kan svekke representasjonen for de større partiene, og gjøre det vanskeligere å etablere styringsdyktige regjeringer, er spesielt negative. Svarene på spørsmålet om økt partimessig proporsjonalitet er også betinget av hvorvidt respondentene selv stemte på et av de mindre partiene i stortingsvalget i 2017. Det er småpartivelgerne som ønsker en mer proporsjonal valgordning. Vi finner også at det er begrenset oppslutning om forslaget om å fordele stortingsrepresentantene etter antall innbyggere i fylkene. Oppslutningen reduseres ytterligere når respondentene blir informert om det styrker representasjonen til de folkerike valgdistriktene. Et flertall støtter videre forslaget om økt personvalg, og oppslutninger øker noe når respondentene opplyses om at det vil styrke deres egen innflytelse over hvem som blir valgt inn på Stortinget.

• Bjørklund, Tor & Bergh, Johannes (2019). Når kjempene faller: om svekkelsen av sosialdemokratiske partier. In Allern, Elin Haugsgjerd; Saglie, Jo & Østerud, Øyvind (Ed.), Makt og opposisjon : De politiske partiene som demokratisk paradoks. Universitetsforlaget. p. 86–100. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  "Makt og opposisjon" diskuterer partienes rolle i det norske demokratiet. Hva ved partiene fungerer relativt bra i Norge, og hva fungerer mindre godt? Boka tar for seg de norske partienes utforming og virke både i sivilsamfunnet og i storting og regjering, sett i et internasjonalt perspektiv. "Makt og opposisjon" inneholder både fagartikler og essays. I første del presenterer ledende forskere status og bidrar med ny forskning på hver sine felt, og de diskuterer partienes bidrag til å fremme ulike demokratiske verdier og demokratiaspekter. I andre del skriver et knippe tidligere og nåværende politikere samt én erfaren journalist og politisk kommentator om mange av de samme temaene, basert på egne erfaringer. Slik får leseren kjennskap til hvordan problemstillingene fortoner seg for dem som selv er en del av eller jobber tett på det politiske liv, og vi får gode eksempler på hvordan partienes utfordringer fortoner seg i den politiske hverdagen.

• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2019). Politisk dagsorden og sakseierskap ved stortingsvalget i 2017. In Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Ed.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 27–43. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2019). Regjeringsvalget 2017 – politisk polarisering i synet på regjeringen. In Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Ed.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 178–200. Full text in Research Archive
• Aardal, Bernt; Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2019). Politiske stridsspørsmål, ideologiske dimensjoner og stemmegivning. In Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Ed.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 44–80. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (2019). Stortingsvalget 2017 - borgerlig valgseier, men velgerne går mot venstre. In Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Ed.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 11–26. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (2019). En samlet modell for stemmegivning. In Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Ed.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. p. 237–254. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Dahlberg, Stefan; Mörkenstam, Ulf & Saglie, Jo (2018). Participation in indigenous democracy: Voter turnout in Sámi parliamentary elections in Norway and Sweden. Scandinavian Political Studies. 41(4), p. 263–287. doi: 10.1111/1467-9477.12129. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article compares and analyzes voter turnout in the 2013 elections to the Sámi parliaments in Norway and Sweden, using data from voter surveys. Is voting in these elections motivated by the same factors that explain turnout in national parliamentary elections? First, the study showed that a common election day for national and Sámi elections is an important reason for the higher turnout in Norway. Second, involvement in Sámi society was the most important factor for explaining turnout in both countries. General political resources and motivation had some explanatory power in Norway, but not in Sweden. This possibly reflects a more far-reaching difference between Sámi politics in Norway and Sweden. In Norway, the Sámi electorate seems to be more politically integrated in the national polity, and the institutional ties between Sámi and national politics are stronger. This may be explained in part by the historical legacy of each state’s policy.

• Winsvold, Marte; Ødegård, Guro & Bergh, Johannes (2018). Young councillors — influential politicians or youth alibi? Representation. 53(3-4), p. 297–311. doi: 10.1080/00344893.2018.1434232. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Based on a survey of young councillors in 20 Norwegian municipalities, the paper studies the relation between the councillors’ sense of political efficacy, their role perception and their motivation to continue with politics. The results indicate that those feeling they are expected to represent youth or who are nominated because of their age feel less influential than others. Influence in own party group and being acknowledged by established politicians seem to be important for the motivation to continue with politics.

• Aardal, Bernt & Bergh, Johannes (2018). Elections in Context : The 2017 Norwegian Election. West European Politics. 41(5), p. 1208–1216. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2017.1415778. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Although the Storting election of 11 September 2017 reduced the number of seats backing the incumbent conservative government, it still gave the two governing parties and their supporting centre-right parties a parliamentary majority. Thus, Prime Minister Solberg’s premiership will continue after the election. In the previous period, the government could secure a parliamentary majority with either of the two centrist parties; the Liberal Party or the Christian Democrats. After the 2017 election, they will need the support of both parties to secure a majority, unless they can get help from one or more of the centre-left opposition parties. When Solberg formed her government back in 2013, the populist right-wing Progress Party entered government for the first time. Even Progress Party leaders feared that they would lose support from anti-establishment voters. Poor turnout at the 2015 local election did not bode well. However, the Progress Party did far better in the 2017 national elections and lost only 1.1 percentage points and two seats compared with the 2013 election. A major success factor for the Progress Party was the attention given to immigration issues during the election campaign (see below). At the previous election, in 2013, the Green Party won a seat for the first time, increasing the number of parties in parliament from seven to eight. In 2017, the far-left Red Party increased the number of parties from eight to nine. Despite the re-election of the incumbent government, the election signalled a shift to the left, even to the left of the Labour Party.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Matland, Richard E. (2017). "Hei! Har du stemt? Hvis ikke, kan du ennå rekke det." : Kan påminnelser øke valgdeltakelsen? In Saglie, Jo & Christensen, Dag Arne (Ed.), Lokalvalget 2015 - et valg i kommunereformens tegn?. Abstrakt forlag. p. 79–94. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Det er først og fremst i kommunene at innbyggerne får anledning til å påvirke utformingen av politikk, og det er her den nasjonale velferdspolitikken blir omgjort til praktisk politikk. Men det norske kommunelandskapet er mangfoldig, og spenner fra storbyer til små utkantkommuner. Rammene for innbyggernes deltakelse og innflytelse er dermed ganske ulike. Denne boken gir en bred oversikt over det norske lokaldemokratiet anno 2015. Bokens utgangspunkt er lokalvalget 2015. Mens lokalvalget i 2011 ble gjennomført i en helt spesiell situasjon rett etter terrorangrepet den 22. juli, var mye tilbake til det normale i 2015. Valget kan likevel vise seg å være et viktig vannskille – spesielt i småkommunene. Et viktig bakteppe for 2015-valget var utvilsomt kommunereformen. Da valget ble holdt var det 428 kommuner i Norge. Regjeringens ambisjon er å redusere antall kommuner betydelig. Dermed kan vi gi et tidsbilde av situasjonen før reformen settes ut i livet. Boken er inndelt i fem tematiske bolker. De fire første kapitlene handler om selve valgresultatet og dekker temaer som stemmegivningen, deltakelsen i valget og betydningen av lokale lister. Deretter følger tre kapitler som går valgkampen etter i sømmene, og ser i hvilken grad partivalg, politisk interesse og oppfatninger av sakseierskap endrer seg i løpet av valgkampen. Den tredje bolken består av tre kapitler som studerer politisk deltakelse mellom valgene. Bokens fjerde bolk består av tre kapitler som studerer de unges og de eldres representasjon i lokalpolitikken. Bokens femte, og siste bolk, inneholder to kapitler, der det ene undersøker innbyggernes holdninger til kommunereformen. Det andre og avsluttende kapitlet trekker de lange linjene med bakgrunn i data fra 20 år med lokalvalgundersøkelser. Boken henvender seg til alle som er interessert i utviklingen av det norske lokaldemokratiet, men kanskje særlig til studenter, forskere, journalister og politisk aktive.

• Bergh, Johannes & Christensen, Dag Arne (2017). Hvem er hjemmesitterne? En analyse av valgdeltakelse ved tre påfølgende valg. In Saglie, Jo & Christensen, Dag Arne (Ed.), Lokalvalget 2015 - et valg i kommunereformens tegn?. Abstrakt forlag. p. 61–78. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Det er først og fremst i kommunene at innbyggerne får anledning til å påvirke utformingen av politikk, og det er her den nasjonale velferdspolitikken blir omgjort til praktisk politikk. Men det norske kommunelandskapet er mangfoldig, og spenner fra storbyer til små utkantkommuner. Rammene for innbyggernes deltakelse og innflytelse er dermed ganske ulike. Denne boken gir en bred oversikt over det norske lokaldemokratiet anno 2015. Bokens utgangspunkt er lokalvalget 2015. Mens lokalvalget i 2011 ble gjennomført i en helt spesiell situasjon rett etter terrorangrepet den 22. juli, var mye tilbake til det normale i 2015. Valget kan likevel vise seg å være et viktig vannskille – spesielt i småkommunene. Et viktig bakteppe for 2015-valget var utvilsomt kommunereformen. Da valget ble holdt var det 428 kommuner i Norge. Regjeringens ambisjon er å redusere antall kommuner betydelig. Dermed kan vi gi et tidsbilde av situasjonen før reformen settes ut i livet. Boken er inndelt i fem tematiske bolker. De fire første kapitlene handler om selve valgresultatet og dekker temaer som stemmegivningen, deltakelsen i valget og betydningen av lokale lister. Deretter følger tre kapitler som går valgkampen etter i sømmene, og ser i hvilken grad partivalg, politisk interesse og oppfatninger av sakseierskap endrer seg i løpet av valgkampen. Den tredje bolken består av tre kapitler som studerer politisk deltakelse mellom valgene. Bokens fjerde bolk består av tre kapitler som studerer de unges og de eldres representasjon i lokalpolitikken. Bokens femte, og siste bolk, inneholder to kapitler, der det ene undersøker innbyggernes holdninger til kommunereformen. Det andre og avsluttende kapitlet trekker de lange linjene med bakgrunn i data fra 20 år med lokalvalgundersøkelser. Boken henvender seg til alle som er interessert i utviklingen av det norske lokaldemokratiet, men kanskje særlig til studenter, forskere, journalister og politisk aktive.

• Mörkenstam, Ulf; Bergh, Johannes; Nilsson, Ragnhild; Saglie, Jo & Svensson, Richard (2017). Politiska skiljelinjer i den samiska väljarkåren i Norge och Sverige. In Josefsen, Eva; Mörkenstam, Ulf; Nilsson, Ragnhild & Saglie, Jo (Ed.), Ett folk, ulike valg : Sametingsvalg i Norge og Sverige. Gyldendal Akademisk. p. 195–219. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Syftet med detta kapitel är att systematiskt jämföra hur olika skiljelinjer strukturerar samisk politik i Norge och Sverige, och vi diskuterar hur dessa politiska skiljelinjer kan öka förståelsen för hur väljarkåren och partistrukturen ser ut i respektive land. Vår studie visar att de skiljelinjer som strukturerar väljarkåren och partisystemen vid val till Sametingen i Norge och Sverige ser väldigt olika ut. Den första skillnaden är en följd av den nationella politiken i ett historiskt perspektiv, där den svenska statens politik i och genom lagstiftning skapat en «kategoriklyvning» av det samiska folket – som handlar om samebyarnas inflytande och rennäringens ställning – en klyvning som inte alls präglar samepolitiken i Norge. Den andra centrala skillnaden är att det i Sverige råder en relativt stor samstämmighet inom väljarkåren om vikten av ett ökat självbestämmande, medan självbestämmande är en tydlig politisk skiljelinje i Norge. Detta är dock delvis beroende av att traditionella stortingspartier också ställer upp vid val till Sametinget i Norge och att FrP sticker ut här. Detta faktum förklarar också den tredje skillnaden, nämligen att det finns en traditionell vänster-högerdimension vid sametingsvalen i Norge, något som helt saknas på svensk sida. Vi kan dock inte utifrån vår studie dra slutsatsen att vänster-högerdimensionen är ett mer centralt element i den samepolitiska vardagen i Norge än vad den är i Sverige. Det kan vara mer rimligt att betrakta närvaron av dimensionen vänster-höger i norsk samepolitik som en följd av att de norska partierna deltar i sametingsvalet, snarare än som en reell samepolitisk skiljelinje.

• Bergh, Johannes; Dahlberg, Stefan; Mörkenstam, Ulf & Saglie, Jo (2017). Valdeltagande vid sametingsval. In Josefsen, Eva; Mörkenstam, Ulf; Nilsson, Ragnhild & Saglie, Jo (Ed.), Ett folk, ulike valg : Sametingsvalg i Norge og Sverige. Gyldendal Akademisk. p. 178–194. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Syftet med detta kapitel är att jämföra och analysera hur valdeltagandet ser ut på individnivå vid valen till Sametinget i Norge och Sverige. Vi har i huvudsak två forskningsfrågor: Vad förklarar väljarbeteendet i det svenska och norska sametingsvalen? Och vilka likheter och skillnader hittar vi vad gäller de centrala förklaringsfaktorerna? Vi vill särskilt lyfta fram två resultat. Det första är att vår studie visar att det högre valdeltagandet i Norge till stora delar är beroende av att sametings- och stortingsval sker på samma dag och i samma vallokaler. Det andra är att den samiska väljarkåren i Norge i högre grad liknar väljarkåren på nationell nivå. Till skillnad från i Sverige stämmer traditionella statsvetenskapliga förklaringsmodeller för valdeltagande. Resurser specifika för sametingsval är dock viktigare än allmänna politiska resurser i Norge, men dessa faktorer är än mer betydelsefulla för att förklara valdeltagande inom väljarkåren i Sverige, där traditionella socio-ekonomiska förklaringar inte har något förklaringsvärde. Ett skäl till detta skulle kunna vara att väljarkåren i Norge är mer politisk integrerade i det norska samhället än de samer som är registrerade i röstlängden på svensk sida.

• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2017). Sakseierskap i lokalvalgkamp. In Saglie, Jo & Christensen, Dag Arne (Ed.), Lokalvalget 2015 - et valg i kommunereformens tegn?. Abstrakt forlag. p. 113–124. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  I dette kapitlet studerer vi om valgkampen hadde noen betydning for sakseierskap og dagsorden, og om valgkampen i så fall slo positivt eller negativt ut for enkeltpartier. For å svare på disse spørsmålene bruker vi en panelundersøkelse fra valgkampen 2015 der de samme personene ble intervjuet 3 ganger. Resultatene viser at FrP tapte sakseierskap til innvandringspolitikken i løpet av valgkampen til tross for at saken var aktuell. Problemet for FrP var at saken hadde en dominerende diskurs hvor flyktningens behov for hjelp var i fokus, noe som passet dårlig med Frps restriktive linje i innvandringspolitikken. Partiet mistet trolig velgere på grunn av denne situasjonen. Videre viser resultatene at det er et betydelig potensiale for endring av dagsorden og sakseierskap i løpet av en valgkamp. Mange velgere skifter mening i løpet av den måneden valgkampen varer. På den måten ser valgkampen ut til å fylle en viktig funksjon i det norske demokratiet.

• Mörkenstam, Ulf; Dahlberg, Stefan; Bergh, Johannes & Saglie, Jo (2016). Valdeltagande, skiljelinjer och legitimitet: en jämförelse med Norge. In Dahlberg, Stefan; Mörkenstam, Ulf & Nilsson, Ragnhild (Ed.), Sametingsval : Väljare, partier och media. Santérus Förlag. p. 289–311. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  I denna bok presenteras resultat från den första väljarundersökning som genomförts i samband med val till Sametinget i Sverige: om väljare, partier och medias roll. De olika kapitlen berör alltifrån Sametingets tillkomst och politiska mandat, till valdeltagande, politiskt förtroende och om det finns några avgörande åsiktsskillnader mellan kvinnor och män.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne; Folkestad, Bjarte; Karlsen, Rune & Saglie, Jo (2016). Personvalg ved stortingsvalg? Norsk statsvitenskapelig tidsskrift. 32(3), p. 217–242. doi: 10.18261/issn.1504-2936-2016-03-01. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Denne artikkelen vurderer effekten av en eventuell innføring av reelt personvalg ved stortingsvalg. Utgangspunkt er tidligere forskning og simuleringer basert på data fra norske valg. Vi ser dels på mulige effekter på valgkamp og parlamentarisk arbeid, og dels på effekter på hvem som velges inn på Stortinget. Personvalg ved stortingsvalg kan få konsekvenser for Stortingets sammensetning, og små partier ser ut til å berøres sterkere enn store. Men omfanget vil være avhengig av den konkrete utformingen av en personvalgordning: En lav sperregrense kombinert med en mulighet til å gi mer enn én personstemme gir større spillerom for velgerinnflytelse også på listene til de større partiene. Effektene vil også være avhengig av forhold som ligger utenfor Stortingets kontroll, som i hvilken grad velgerne tar personstemmeretten i bruk og i hvilken grad kandidatene bruker muligheten til å drive personlig valgkamp.

• Karlsen, Rune & Bergh, Johannes (2016). Norway. European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. p. 199–203. doi: 10.1111/2047-8852.12141. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The main political event in Norway in 2015 was the municipal and county council elections in September. The results proved to be disappointing for the two national governing parties: the Conservative Party and right-wing populist Progress Party. The main winner of the elections was the Greens. They established themselves for the first time as a national political force by gaining representation in all parts of the country. The European refugee crisis dominated political debate in Norway for much of the year. Falling oil prices negatively affected the Norwegian economy, and prompted politicians to address economic issues in a way that they have not had to in some time.

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• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2026). Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. doi: 10.23865/cdf.296. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Norwegian politics is changing. Voters are ideologically moving towards the right. There is increased polarization. International events such as the wars in the Middle East and in the Ukraine affects Norwegian politics in ways that we have not seen in a long time. Voters’ trust in politicians is falling. Politics has become more serious than Norwegians have been used to in recent decades. At the same time, we also see stronger political engagement and a mobilization of voters who previously stood on the sidelines. The authors of the book analyze trends in Norwegian politics in connection with the 2025 Parliamentary (Storting) election. The Norwegian National Election Studies have a long history, stretching back to the 1957 parliamentary election. Data from this long time-series provide an historic backdrop for the analyses of the 2025-election. Conflict and Mobilization. An Analysis of the 2025 Norwegian Parliamentary Election provides both an introduction to and an updated analysis of Norwegian politics. The authors point in particular to five factors that help explain the outcome of the 2025 election: 1) an ideological shift to the right among voters, 2) the mobilization of previous non-voters who supported the Progress Party, 3) the increased importance of economic issues for voters’ priorities, 4) the strengthened popularity of the incumbent government before the election, not least linked to its handling of foreign and security policy, and 5) a changing media landscape, in which both patterns of media use and media content affect voters’ issue priorities and vote choice.

• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2023). Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. 344 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Eichhorn, Jan & Bergh, Johannes (2020). Lowering the Voting Age to 16: Learning from Real Experiences Worldwide. Palgrave Macmillan. 245 p. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This book explores the consequences of lowering the voting age to 16 from a global perspective, bringing together empirical research from countries where at least some 16-year-olds are able to vote. With the aim to show what really happens when younger people can take part in elections, the authors engage with the key debates on earlier enfranchisement and examine the lead-up to and impact of changes to the voting age in countries across the globe. The book provides the most comprehensive synthesis on this topic, including detailed case studies and broad comparative analyses. It summarizes what can be said about youth political participation and attitudes, and highlights where further research is needed. The findings will be of great interest to researchers working in youth political socialization and engagement, as well as to policymakers, youth workers and activists.

• Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (2020). Valg og politikk siden 1945. Velgere, institusjoner og kritiske hendelser i norsk politisk historie. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. 297 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (2019). Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. 258 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Aardal, Bernt & Bergh, Johannes (2015). Valg og velgere. En studie av stortingsvalget 2013. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. 280 p. Full text in Research Archive

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• Bergh, Johannes; Hesstvedt, Stine & Karlsen, Rune (2025). Dagsorden og sakseierskap: Stortingsvalget 2025. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Full text in Research Archive
• Christensen, Dag Arne; Holmås, Tor Helge; Nessa, Benedicte & Bergh, Johannes (2025). Tiltak for økt valgdeltakelse blant personer med innvandrerbakgrunn. NORCE Research AS. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Formålet med denne rapporten er å undersøke forklaringer på den lave valgdeltakelsen blant innvandrerne, identifisere innvandrergrupper med spesielt lav deltakelse samt å diskutere mulige tiltak for å øke deltakelsen. Vi analyser valgdeltakelsen i stortingsvalget 2021 og i kommunestyrevalget 2023 bygger på individbaserte registerdata for alle stemmeberettigede, samt en spørreundersøkelse blant et utvalg av innvandrere gjennomført i etterkant av lokalvalget i 2023. Analysene tar utgangspunkt i en litteraturgjennomgang som knytter innvandernes valgdeltakelse til både innvandrerspesifikke- (som botid og landbakgrunn), generelle individuelle- (som kjønn og alder), samt nettverksbaserte (som nabolag og familieforhold) forklaringsperspektiver. I analysene sammenlignes valgdeltakelsen blant ulike grupper av innvandrere (etter landbakgrunn og innvandringsgrunn) og innvandrernes etterkommere med majoritetsbefolkningen (norskfødte).

• Bergh, Johannes; Hesstvedt, Stine & Karlsen, Rune (2022). Dagsorden og sakseierskap ved stortingsvalget 2021. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Den politiske dagsorden og partienes troverdighet på de saksområdene som er på dagsorden er viktig for å forstå utfallet av et valg. Velgernes dagsorden referer til de sakene velgerne er opptatt av og som de mener er viktige for deres stemmegivning. Hvilke saker som dominerer velgernes dagsorden er sentralt fordi politiske partier har varierende troverdighet hos velgere på ulike saker. Dette refereres til, både i faglitteraturen og offentligheten, som partienes sakseierskap. Formålet med dette notatet er å presentere nye tall for dagsorden og sakseierskap ved stortingsvalget 2021.

• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2020). Hvilken valgordning får flest velgere til å stemme? Om sammenhengen mellom valgordninger og valgdeltakelse. (Vedlegg til NOU 2020:6 "Frie og hemmelige valg : ny valglov"). Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Matland, Richard (2018). Voter Mobilisation in a High-Turnout Context: Get Out the Vote Experiments in the 2017 Norwegian Parliamentary Election. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  What can be done to increase voter participation in elections? One possibility is to contact voters individually and try to get them to the polls. This report contains results from several experiments with “Get Out the Vote” mobilisation techniques in the Norwegian local elections of 2015 and the parliamentary election of 2017. These experiments include letters in the post, SMS text messages and phone calls to voters. The general finding is that mobilisation drives such as these are more effective in local elections where turnout is lower than in parliamentary elections. SMS text messages and letters in the post can be quite effective in mobilising low-turnout groups, such as immigrants and young voters in local elections.

• Bergh, Johannes & Saglie, Jo (2018). Personvalg ved stortingsvalg : Konsekvenser av ulike valgordninger (Vedlegg til NOU 2020:6 "Frie og hemmelige valg : ny valglov"). Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Matland, Richard E. (2016). Getting out the vote : Experiments in voter mobilization among immigrants and natives in Norway. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This report describes the results of two sets of randomized Get-Out-the-Vote experiments, testing the effectiveness of mail mobilization appeals directed at immigrants as well as SMS text messages directed at both immigrants and native voters in Norway. The results show that GOTV mobilization drives among immigrant communities can be quite effective. The same is true for GOTV campaigns directed at another low turnout group: young voters. These results indicate that the mobilization tools used in the experiments could be employed to raise turnout in future Norwegian elections.

• Bergh, Johannes (2016). Hva skjer når 16-åringer får lov til å stemme? Resultater fra evalueringene av to forsøk med nedsatt stemmerettsalder. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  I denne rapporten spør vi: Hva skjer når 16-åringer får lov til å stemme? Vi bruker resultatene fra to forsøk med stemmerett for 16-åringer i utvalgte norske kommuner (ved kommunestyrevalgene i 2011 og 2015) til å besvare spørsmålet. Det generelle bildet er at en eventuell senkning av stemmerettsalderen vil få små konsekvenser for det norske demokratiet. Konkret finner vi: • Valgdeltakelsen blant 16- og 17-åringer er overraskende høy, og ligger så vidt under deltakelsesnivået for alle velgere samlet. Den totale valgdeltakelsen blir altså uendret av at 16- og 17-åringer får stemmerett. • Vi finner ikke noen indikasjoner på at de som får stemmerett i en alder av 16 eller 17 år etablerer en vane om å stemme som gjør at deres tilbøyelighet til å delta senere i livet øker. Resultatene tyder derfor ikke på at en senket stemmerettsalder vil ha en positiv effekt på valgdeltakelsen på lang sikt, slik mange har håpet eller ønsket. • De sosiale forskjellene i valgdeltakelse som vi ser i den voksne befolkningen ser ut til å være like store blant ungdommer. • Det er kun små forskjeller i politiske preferanser og stemmegivning mellom ungdommer og voksne. • Lokalmedienes dekning av forsøket har alt overveiende vært positiv; kritiske stemmer har vært så å si fraværende. • Når stemmerettsalderen senkes så øker den politiske representasjonen av unge. Det ble valgt inn flere unge kommunestyrepolitikere som følge av forsøkene med senket stemmerettsalder.

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• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2026). Boklansering. Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Full text in Research Archive
• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Bergh, Johannes (2026). Arendalsuka - Tillitsbarometeret 2026. Full text in Research Archive
• Kierulf, Anine; Engh, Sunniva; Raklev, Are; Carlsen, Karin Cecilie Lødrup & Bergh, Johannes (2026). Når forskning blir fienden: Hvorfor trenger vi kunnskap? Full text in Research Archive
• Strømme, Simen; Wickstrøm, Kristoffer; Søvik, Kristoffer; Lippestad, Geir & Bergh, Johannes (2025). Politiske partier har lansert KI-chatboter. [Internet]. TV2. doi: https:/www.tv2.no/nyheter/innenriks/politiske-partier-har-lansert-ki-chatboter/17715092/. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Thorsen, Dag Einar; Aas, Espen & Sollund, Sigrid (2025). Taktisk stemmegivning. [TV]. NRK 1 og NRK P2 Dagsnytt atten. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2024). Norway: Political Developments and Data in 2023. Political Scandals in a Local Election Year. European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2023). Voting alone: The effect of convenience voting on the social act of voting. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes (2023). Lokalvalget 2023: Pendelen svinger mot høyre. In Kalsnes, Bente; Raknes, Ketil & Larsson, Anders Olof (Ed.), Valganalyse 2023. Høyskolen Kristiania. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne; Holmås, Tor Helge & Midtbø, Tor (2023). Immigrant turnout in the Norwegian 2021 parliamentary election: The impact of Neighbourhoods. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2022). Norway: Political Developments and Data in 2021. Victory for the Centre-Left. European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. 61(1), p. 351–361. doi: 10.1111/2047-8852.12377. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The main political event in Norway in 2021 was the Storting (parliamentary) election in September. After eight years of rule by a Conservative Party/Høyre Prime Minister, the 2021 election was a decisive win for the centre-left. However, it was a win by a fragmented group of five parties, only two of which ended up forming the new government. Despite the new large centre-left majority in Parliament, the new government, like the previous one, is a minority government. The Covid-19 pandemic dominated Norwegian life through much of 2021, with two large-scale lockdowns early in the year and in December. While the last (December) lockdown was a bit controversial, the government's handling of the pandemic was largely depoliticized. The main issues for voters in the election were environmental issues (including climate change). The pandemic did not register as an important issue among voters.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2022). Mobilizing Immigrants and Their Families to Vote: Is Political Participation Contagious? Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Rommetvedt, Hilmar; Saglie, Jo & Segaard, Signe Bock (2021). Hva kan vi lære av valget i 2019? Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2021). Field experiments in voter mobilization among immigrants in the Norwegian 2017 parliamentary election. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abstract This paper reports on a randomized field experiment testing four different direct mail mobilization appeals among naturalized citizens in the 2017 Norwegian Parliamentary Elections. It replicates a set of field experiments done in the 2015 local elections in a more salient context and with a more motivated public. All four letters include a general encouragement to vote and practical information about voting. Three of the letters include an extra paragraph presenting different mobilization messages. They were: 1) a message guaranteeing ballot secrecy. 2) a message with consistent prescriptive and descriptive norms emphasizing the importance of immigrant participation and that participation has been increasing. 3) a message with inconsistent prescriptive and descriptive norms emphasizing the importance of immigrant participation but noting immigrant participation has been low. The fourth letter (the placebo letter) included only the general encouragement and practical information about voting. As in the 2015 experiments, all letters increased turnout both among citizens who were eligible for the first time to vote and among previously eligible naturalized citizens. The strongest effects is among new citizens eligible to vote for the first time where the norm consistent letter show an treatment effect of 3.78% points, while the guarantee of privacy message show an treatment effect of 3.38% points. Among previously eligible immigrant voters, there is an average treatment effect of 2.3% points from a baseline of 55.2% turnout. We also find a small spillover effect of 1.6% points increase in turnout within two-person households.

• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2021). Norway: Political Developments and Data in 2020. European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. doi: 10.1111/2047-8852.12325. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Christensen, Dag Arne (2020). Ulikhet i innvandrernes valgdeltakelse i Norge. In Segaard, Signe Bock (Eds.), Det norske lokaldemokratiets legitimitet. Tillit, deltakelse og ulikhet. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. p. 81–95. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Hvor mye «goodwill» i form av legitimitet og folkets tillit har lokaldemokratiet, dets aktører og institusjoner egentlig å gå på? I denne rapporten belyser vi, ved hjelp av forskjellige perspektiver og et omfattende datamateriale, ulike aspekter ved politisk tillit og demokratisk legitimitet. Premisset vårt er at hvis demokratiet – og det lokale selvstyret mer spesifikt – skal fungere i praksis, må det ha oppslutning i befolkningen. På denne måten handler rapporten om grunnlaget for lokalpolitisk legitimitet og tillit, slik det ligger ikke bare i sosial og politisk (u)likhet i deltakelse og representasjon, men også i de systemer, medvirkningsstrukturer og prosesser som eksisterer i demokratiet, særlig på lokalt nivå. Rapporten retter søkelyset mot spesifikke problemstillinger knyttet til politisk og sosial (u) likhet i deltakelse og politisk tillit som så belyses gjennom empiriske analyser ut fra ulike perspektiver: innbyggerperspektiv, politikerperspektiv, systemperspektiv og prosessperspektiv. Hensikten er å forsøke å forstå generelle mønstre i utviklingen og statusen for den lokalpolitiske legitimiteten og tilliten: Hva skyldes disse mønstrene, og hvilke konsekvenser har de? Det er ikke mulig å gi entydige svar og ei heller å belyse alle årsaker og konsekvenser, men i denne rapporten vil noen av disse bli undersøkt og drøftet nærmere. Avslutningsvis samles trådene, og legitimiteten til det norske demokrati anno 2020 – og lokaldemokrati spesielt – drøftes.

• Bergh, Johannes & Saglie, Jo (2020). Politisk avstand ved sametingsvalg. Full text in Research Archive
• Saglie, Jo; Bergh, Johannes & Rommetvedt, Hilmar (2020). Hva skjedde ved valget? Nasjonale trender og lokale variasjoner. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes (2020). Stemmerett for 16-åringer øker valgdeltagelsen senere i livet. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes (2020). Hva kan 70 år med forskning på demokratiet fortelle oss? Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2020). Norway: Political Developments and Data in 2019. European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. 59(1), p. 279–285. doi: 10.1111/2047-8852.12301. Full text in Research Archive
• Haugsgjerd, Atle; Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (2019). "Folk flest" har fortsatt tillit til politikerne i Norge, men også her har demokratiet utfordringer. Full text in Research Archive
• Saglie, Jo; Bergh, Johannes & Mörkenstam, Ulf (2019). Political Cleavages in Indigenous Representation: The Case of the Norwegian and Swedish Sámediggis. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In response to indigenous demands for self-determination, Norway and Sweden both established a Sámediggi (Sámi parliament) consisting of popularly elected Sámi representatives. The political systems of these two countries are generally regarded as similar. However, the legal bases, electoral systems and party systems of the two Sámediggis vary significantly, and so does their influence and autonomy within their respective political systems. In this paper, we compare the political cleavages that structure Sámi politics within the two countries. In Sweden, the main cleavage is caused by the ‘category split’ between reindeer herders and other Sámi, created by state policy. In contrast, disagreement on the extent of Sámi self-determination seems to be a major cleavage in Norwegian Sámi politics. The left-right dimension appears to be important in Norway, but not in Sweden. This depends on the fact that national Norwegian parties participate in Norwegian Sámi elections, unlike their counterparts in Sweden.

• Saglie, Jo; Bergh, Johannes & Mörkenstam, Ulf (2018). Political Cleavages in Indigenous Representation: The Case of the Norwegian and Swedish Sámediggis. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes; Dahlberg, Stefan; Mörkenstam, Ulf & Saglie, Jo (2017). Voter Turnout in Sámi Parliamentary Elections in Sweden and Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Aardal, Bernt & Bergh, Johannes (2017). Kan vi stole på meningsmålingene? Full text in Research Archive
• Ødegård, Guro; Bergh, Johannes; Saglie, Jo & Winsvold, Marte (2016). Hva skjer når 16-åringer får lov til å stemme? Full text in Research Archive
• Ødegård, Guro; Bergh, Johannes & Saglie, Jo (2016). Why did they vote? Explaining the political mobilization of young Norwegians since 2011. Full text in Research Archive
• Bergh, Johannes & Jenssen, Anders Todal (2016). When does the economy matter? A multilevel comparative analysis of economic voting. Full text in Research Archive
• Ferwerda, Jeremy; Finseraas, Henning & Bergh, Johannes (2016). Voting Rights and Immigrant Incorporation: Evidence from Norway. Full text in Research Archive

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