Stortingsvalgundersøkelsene 2017 og 2021

• Segaard, Signe Bock & Shamshiri-Petersen, Ditte (2024). Politisk tvivl og det svære valg: De tvivlende vælgeres fortællinger. I Hansen, Kasper Møller & Stubager, Rune (Red.), Partiledernes kamp om midten. Folketingsvalget 2022. DJØF Forlag. Vis sammendrag

  Kapitlet giver et kvalitativt indblik i vælgernes politiske tvivl. Gennem en narrativ analyse af åbne valgdagbøger ført i appen “Min Valgdagbog” under valgkampen, ses der på, hvad tvivlen er forankret i, samt hvilke strategier vælgerne følger for at håndtere den og nå frem til en beslutning om, hvor krydset skal sættes. Analysen viser, at politisk tvivl er kompleks og dynamisk. Den politiske tvivl kan på den ene side skabe frustration i form af en følelse af krydspres, politisk hjemløshed, politikerlede, valgtræthed eller tyngden af valgets byrde. På den anden side kan politisk tvivl også anspore til refleksion over politiske emner, aktører og stemmeafgivelsen for netop at imødekomme den politiske frustration. De reflekterende tvivlere anvender således forskellige beslutningsstrategier med afsæt i enighed eller uenighed – eller en hensigt om at bekræfte eller udelukke beslutningsalternativer.

• Saglie, Jo (2023). Sentrum-periferi - en skillelinje i endring? I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 276–304.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Bergh, Johannes (2023). Explaining the Surge of the Populist Radical Right: A Time-Series Analysis of the Effects of Immigration and the Economy in Norway . Political Behavior. doi: 10.1007/s11109-023-09887-6. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Populist radical right parties have become major forces in most Western democracies. Previous research has provided conflicting evidence on whether their electoral support can be explained by two structural developments: economic decline and increased immigration. Using time-series regression and almost 30 years of aggregated monthly polling data, we perform a novel test of the effects of economic decline and immigration on aggregate support for the Norwegian Progress Party. We find that the most beneficial time-periods for this party seem to be those of rising immigration and a booming economy. However, our findings also suggest that the effect of rising immigration is halted when the party holds government office. Thus, voter mobilization based on anti-immigration messages may represent a challenge for the Norwegian Progress Party and potentially other such parties going forward as they may become victims of their own success.

• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2023). Konklusjon: Politikk i urolige tider. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 334–339.
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2023). Valgdeltakelse, forhåndsstemmegivning og familiens betydning for politisk deltakelse. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 229–246.
• Segaard, Signe Bock & Shamshiri-Petersen, Ditte (2023). Valgdagboken: Velgernes fortellinger om veien til det riktige partivalget. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 75–102.
• Winsvold, Marte Slagsvold; Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum; Saglie, Jo & Segaard, Signe Bock (2023). What makes people trust or distrust politicians? Insights from open-ended survey questions. West European Politics. 47(4), s. 759–783. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2023.2268459. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  High political trust is often interpreted as a sign of good democratic health, and widespread distrust as a sign of democratic ill health. However, there is little knowledge about the basis on which people make assessments about whether to trust or distrust political actors. This article develops and applies a typology for political trust judgement. Through a content analysis of 1,105 open-ended survey questions about political trust and distrust, the study finds that people tend to assess (dis)trust of politicians based on whether they see the politicians as predictable, intrinsically committed, competent and responsive. Moreover, the study finds that citizens use different judgement bases to describe trust and distrust, suggesting that the two concepts are not pure negations of each other. While predictability is the most frequently reported basis for trusting politicians, a lack of intrinsic commitment is the most frequently reported basis for distrusting politicians. This article discusses the reasons for and implications of the apparently different bases for weighing judgements on trust and distrust.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Linde, Jonas (2023). Hvilken type demokrati vil norske velgere ha? I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 180–203.
• Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Karlsen, Rune (2023). Stortingsvalget 2021: Velgerne går mot venstre. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 13–29.
• Aalberg, Toril; Karlsen, Rune & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2023). Kjønnsstereotypiske vurderinger av politisk kommunikasjon? I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 123–141.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum; Karlsen, Rune & Aalberg, Toril (2023). Nyhetsbruk og politisk kunnskap i valgkamp. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 103–122.
• Arnesen, Sveinung; Christensen, Dag Arne & Finseraas, Henning (2023). Look to Denmark or not? An experimental study of the Social Democrats’ strategic choices. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 84. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102629. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Social Democratic parties struggle to maintain their strong electoral position, as political competition has shifted from the traditional left-right dimension to the cultural dimension. This has led to a debate on what would be the most viable electoral strategy for these parties in terms of adjusting their policies. Some propose a “New Left” policy platform that combines social investment and progressive cultural policies; others an “Old Left” policy platform that combines traditional redistribution policies and social-conservative cultural policies. We conducted a survey experiment to test the effects of these two platforms on support for the Norwegian Labour party. Our results show that the New Left platform is more popular among current Labour voters and voters from competing left-wing parties, and the two policy platforms are equally popular among the total electorate.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum; Karlsen, Rune & Steen-Johnsen, Kari (2023). Uninformed or Misinformed in the Digital News Environment? How Social Media News Use Affects Two Dimensions of Political Knowledge. Political Communication. doi: 10.1080/10584609.2023.2222070. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This article examines how the use of social media for news affects citizens’ knowledge about politics and current affairs. We employ a two-dimensional perspective on political knowledge and investigate how factual political knowledge, confidence in that knowledge, and misinformation, understood as the mismatch between factual political knowledge and confidence in knowledge, are related to social media news consumption. While earlier studies have suggested a negative relationship between social media news consumption and factual knowledge, there are indications that social media use may give people a general sense of being informed, even when they are not. Such general subjective knowledge might, however, differ from confidence in retrieved facts. Drawing on a two-wave panel study from Norway, we find evidence of a negative relationship between social media news consumption and both dimensions of knowledge. Notably, however, we do not find that social media news use leads to confidence in incorrect beliefs, suggesting that the digital media environment produces an uninformed, but not an overconfident, misinformed news audience.

• Aardal, Bernt Olav & Oscarsson, Henrik (2023). Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. Christian Democratic parties and religious voting. I Montero, José Ramon; Segatti, Paolo & Calvo, Kerman (Red.), Religious Voting in Western Democracies. Oxford University Press. s. 525–548. doi: 10.1093/oso/9780198807858.003.0019. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Segaard, Signe Bock & Shamshiri-Petersen, Ditte (2022). How to Collect Voters’ Perceptions of Election Campaigns? Examining Digital Platforms for Qualitative Diary Postings. Metode & Forskningsdesign. Vis sammendrag

  Diary postings are responses to real-world events, actors and processes that de facto exist and can be identified. This article explores the conditions of capturing voter behaviour and voters’ perceptions of election campaigns by methodologically testing innovative digital instruments for qualitative diary data collection (an app for mobile devices and a webform). We do this in light of three criteria: participant engagement, data relevance and participants’ personal involvement. Based on a real-world methodological experiment in the Fall of 2019 during the Norwegian local election campaign, we found that the app promotes more engagement as to frequency of diary postings, while the webform promoted more comprehensive postings. Concerning participants with different socio-demographic and political profiles, both platforms ensured data relevance in the sense that data match the concepts to be studied: voter behaviour and perception of election campaign. Moreover, both facilitated personal involvement and reflections. The article concludes with a reflection on the potential contribution of the diary method in election studies.

• Fladmoe, Audun & Bergh, Johannes (2022). The use of adjustment weights in voter surveys. Correcting for panel attrition and nonresponse can produce less accurate estimates of voting behavior. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 78. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102486. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Declining response rates make it harder to justify survey data as adequately representative. Adjustment weighting is often used to address this problem, but the premise of that approach is that people within a specific social category who respond to a survey are representative of those that do not. This paper compares selfreported voting in a low response panel survey and a “gold standard” national election survey, with the actual election result in the Norwegian parliamentary election in 2017, and estimate the effects of various inverse probability weights. The results indicate that the panel sample becomes less accurate in predicting the election result when weighted for age than without the use of such a weight. Young adults who respond to surveys may not be representative of this age group as a whole, especially in low response panel surveys.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (2022). Election Campaigns, News Consumption Gaps, and Social Media: Equalizing Political News Use When It Matters? The International Journal of Press/Politics. doi: 10.1177/19401612221112014. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We investigate how inequalities in political media use develop throughout election campaigns, and in particular whether social media use helps counterbalance traditional news consumption gaps. Using a four-wave individual-level panel survey of the Norwegian 2017 national election campaign, we run a series of latent growth models to investigate whether differences in news consumption based on gender, age, education, and political interest increase or decrease during campaigns. We find that news consumption gaps are either stable or converge throughout the campaign. Importantly, social media provides political information to those groups that use traditional media channels the least and thereby reduce overall gaps in political media consumption. In this way, election campaigns, to some extent, equalize inequalities in political news consumption when it matters the most.

• Langsæther, Peter Egge; Goubin, Silke & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2022). Subverted expectations and social democratic austerity: How voters’ reactions to policies are conditional on the policy-implementing actor. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 80. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102529. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  It is well-established that voters care about policies when they go to the voting booth. However, we argue that voters' reaction to the policies are conditional on the actor implementing them. Voters have different expectations towards political parties regarding the policies they are expected to implement, and subverted expectations can have electoral consequences. This is particularly the case when they are related to issues central to the party's ideological agenda. We supply experimental evidence of this in the case of social-democratic austerity policies: Left-wing voters punish social democrats much more for implementing such policies than they punish a mainstream right party for the same actions. Our findings have important implications for several ongoing debates in the literature such as the demise of social democratic parties in the wake of the Great Recession, the interplay between parties and citizens, as well as the general effect of austerity on electoral outcomes.

• Aardal, Bernt & Bergh, Johannes (2022). The 2021 Norwegian election. West European Politics. s. 1522–1534. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2062136. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The Storting election of September 2021 signalled the end of eight years in office for of the centre-right government led by Premier Erna Solberg. During this period, different constellations of parties had been in power: first the Conservatives and the Progress Party, later the Liberal Party and finally the Christian Democrats joined the coalition. However, due to policy disagreements, particularly with the Liberals and the Christian Democrats, the Progress Party left the coalition in 2020, just a year ahead of the election. Climate and immigration policies were at the core of the disagreements. At the 2021 election, the five centre-left (or red-green) parties won the majority of seats and votes, but did not succeed in establishing a majority government. Instead, the Labour Party and the Centre Party formed a minority government, supported by the Socialist Left Party. The overriding issue at the election was climate and environmental concerns. Somewhat unexpectedly, the Green Party did not fare particularly well at the election, and fell short of the four percent threshold for adjustment seats by the tiniest margin. Data from the Norwegian National Election Study shows that the Greens only received 11 per cent of the climate vote, while more than 60 per cent voted for other red-green parties. Social inequality was also high on the agenda, in particular by left of centre voters. The number of effective parties rose from 5.5 to 6.4, increasing the fractionalisation of the party system, which may be worrying if it continues.

• Bergh, Johannes & Christensen, Dag Arne (2022). Getting out the vote in different electoral contexts: the effect of impersonal voter mobilization techniques in middle and high salience Norwegian elections. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. doi: 10.1080/17457289.2022.2051149. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This article reports on two sets of field experiments testing text messaging (SMS) among native Norwegian voters and live phone calls among young voters eligible to vote in their first election. The two sets of experiments are done in both local and national elections. Most previous studies of election salience and voter mobilization use data from countries with generally lower levels of turnout than in Northern Europe (including Norway). This article addresses how the effectiveness of voter mobilization varies by election salience, in a generally high-salience political context. We find the two experiments to be more effective in low/middle salience elections, with turnout around 60 percent, than in high salience elections with turnout higher than 75 percent.

• Skorge, Øyvind Søraas (2021). Mobilizing the Underrepresented: Electoral Systems and Gender Inequality in Political Participation. American Journal of Political Science (AJPS). s. 1–15. doi: 10.1111/ajps.12654. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  To study the political mobilization of underrepresented groups, this article examines the effect of electoral systems on gender equality in voting. Theoretically, I argue that replacing a plurality electoral system with proportional representation (PR) gives party elites greater incentives to mobilize women to vote in all but the most competitive districts under plurality rule. Yet, they need to tap into women's networks to succeed with such mobilizing efforts. Empirically, I isolate the causal effect of PR by studying an imposed shift from plurality to PR in Norwegian municipalities. Using a difference-in-differences design, I estimate that the move from plurality to PR substantially decreased gender inequality in voting. The effect is most pronounced in previously uncompetitive municipalities and where women's networks are present. This study thus demonstrates how the social environment conditions the effect of democratic institutions on the political participation of marginalized groups.

• Karlsen, Rune & Aalberg, Toril (2021). Social Media and Trust in News: An Experimental Study of the Effect of Facebook on News Story Credibility. Digital Journalism. 11(1), s. 144–160. doi: 10.1080/21670811.2021.1945938. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Arnesen, Sveinung; Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Aardal, Bernt (2021). Support for electoral system reform among voters and politicians: Studying information effects through survey experiments. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 71. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102313. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Does information about the consequences of proposals to change the Norwegian parliamentary electoral system influence voters’ and politicians’ attitudes towards the system? Is the willingness to accept change greater among voters/politicians who “lose” under the present electoral system? These questions are illuminated using empirical data from two identical survey experiments, with responses from both voters and politicians about 1) increased proportionality between parties (more seats for smaller parties) and 2) increased geographical proportionality (stronger representation for the more populous counties). The results show that being informed about the consequences of the proposals has a major effect on voters’ and politicians’ attitudes. This applies especially to the question of increased proportionality between parties, where feedback was particularly negative from respondents who were told that the proposal might weaken the larger parties’ representation and make it more difficult to establish viable governments. The responses to the question about increased proportionality between parties were also influenced by partisanship; politicians who belonged to or voters who voted for one of the smaller parties favour increased proportionality. We also find that there is limited support for the proposal to distribute parliamentary seats according to the number of inhabitants in the counties, and this support is further reduced when the respondents are informed that the measure will increase representation from the more populous parts of the country.

• Hesstvedt, Stine; Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2021). Kampen om dagsorden: et historisk tilbakeblikk på stortingsvalgene 1957–2017. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 62(3), s. 273–292. doi: 10.18261/ISSN.1504-291X-2021-03-04. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Valgkamper blir gjerne omtalt som en «kamp om dagsorden» (Valen, 1999). Hvilke saker som opptar velgerne, og hvorvidt politikere kan å overbevise velgere om at de har de beste politiske løsningene, er tett forbundet med valgresultatet. I et demokratisk perspektiv er det også avgjørende at partiene evner å presentere politiske løsninger på saksfelt som velgerne opplever som viktige for deres ve og vel (Dahl, 2000). Mens valgene i etterkrigsårene handlet om gjenreising etter krigen og utbygging av velferdsstaten, har store samfunnsendringer som velstandsvekst, utdanningseksplosjon, globalisering og innvandring presset frem nye stridsspørsmål og endret velgernes prioriteringer. Når vi på sensommeren i 2021 går inn i årets valgkamp, er bakteppet en lang periode med pandemi og unntakstilstand samt stor oppmerksomhet om distriktspolitikk og sentraliseringsreformer. Hvordan vil den se ut i forhold til andre valg? I denne forskningskommentaren setter vi årets valgkamp i en historisk kontekst ved å spørre: Hva har vært viktige saker for norske velgere siden andre verdenskrig? Kjennetegnes den norske dagsorden av stabilitet eller endringer fra valg til valg? Hvilke partier nyter tillit på saker som figurerer høyt på den politiske dagsorden, og hvordan endrer dette seg over tid? Det finnes få studier som har undersøkt velgernes dagsorden i norsk etterkrigstid sett under ett (men se Bjørklund, 2020). Ved hjelp av data fra stortingsvalgundersøkelsene identifiserer og diskuterer vi fire hovedtyper av saker som har opptatt velgere i Norge. Vi peker på de «glemte» sakene som har forsvunnet fra dagsorden over tid – som boligpolitikk og forsvarspolitikk; de «nye» sakene som har blitt viktigere i valgkampene i den senere tid, som innvandring og klima; og de «tidløse sakene» som har stått på dagsorden i mer eller mindre hele 60-årsperioden, som skattepolitikk og eldreomsorg. Vi tar også for oss en sak som har vært svært viktig for utviklingen i norsk politikk, men som er i en kategori for seg selv: spørsmålet om norsk medlemskap i Den europeiske union (EU). Til slutt undersøker vi velgernes tillit til partiene i disse sakene og studerer sakseierskap i de senere periodene (1997–2017), da spørsmål om best politikk på ulike politikkområder ble inkludert i valgundersøkelsen. Underveis diskuterer vi hva slags betydning dagsorden og sakseierskap har hatt for partienes oppslutning og stemmegivning. Til grunn for gjennomgangen ligger tverrsnittsdata fra stortingsvalgundersøkelsene for perioden 1957 til 2017. Helt siden 1957 har Valgforskningsprogrammet ved Institutt for samfunnsforskning, først i samarbeid med Norsk Gallup og siden 1977 i samarbeid med Statistisk sentralbyrå, stilt et landsrepresentativt utvalg av norske velgere spørsmål om hva som var de viktigste sakene for deres stemmegivning. I tillegg har prosjektet siden 1997 stilt spørsmål om sakseierskap – nemlig om hvilke partier velgerne mener har best politikk på enkelte saksfelt.

• Eichhorn, Jan & Bergh, Johannes (2021). Lowering the Voting Age to 16 in Practice: Processes and Outcomes Compared. Parliamentary Affairs. 74(3), s. 507–521. doi: 10.1093/pa/gsab019. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Research into the possible consequences of lowering the voting age to 16 used to be rather speculative in nature, as there were few countries that had implemented earlier enfranchisement. This has changed over the past decade. We now have a range of countries in different locations, mostly in Europe and South America, where 16- and 17-year-olds can vote in some or all elections. In many of those places empirical research has given us insights into the experiences of young people and the impact of those changes on political discussions. However, so far these studies have largely been conducted individually in each country, which makes comparisons difficult. This article summarises the key insights from empirical research across countries with lower voting ages. It identifies common patterns, but also highlights differences. Overall, the impact appears to not be negative and often positive in terms of political engagement and civic attitudes. However, the comprehensiveness of effects varies. The article offers some possible frameworks to understand differences, in particular by reflecting on the processes that led to voting franchise changes, but also indicates where gaps in knowledge remain, and what sort of research would be required to produce systematically comparable results.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle; Hesstvedt, Stine & Karlsen, Rune (2021). Increased media choice and political knowledge gaps: A comparative longitudinal study of 18 established democracies 1995-2015. Political Communication. 38(6), s. 731–750. doi: 10.1080/10584609.2020.1868633. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We investigate the often-stated, but disputed claim in the political science and political communication literature that increasing media choice widens inequalities in political knowledge. The assumption is that in a high-choice media environment, the politically interested will consume more news while the uninterested will avoid such content, leading, in turn, to widening differences in political knowledge. Although previous studies show that high media choice increases political knowledge gaps in the United States, comparative longitudinal evidence is currently lacking. To fill this gap, we draw on data from four rounds of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. Overall, we do not find general support for the high-choice knowledge gap thesis. In most countries, there is no indication that inequality in political knowledge has increased over time. Building on recent insights from political communication research, we question key assumptions of the high choice knowledge gap thesis.

• Hopmann, David Nicolas & Karlsen, Rune (2021). Elections and political communication in the Nordic countries. I Skogerbø, Eli; Ihlen, Øyvind; Kristensen, Nete Nørgaard & Nord, Lars W. (Red.), Power, communication, and politics in the Nordic countries. Nordicom. s. 219–240.
• Karlsen, Rune; Lütz, Georg & Öhberg, Patrik (2020). Candidate Campaigns in Comparative Perspective. I De Winter, Lieven; Karlsen, Rune & Schmitt, Hermann (Red.), Parliamentary Candidates Between Voters and Parties: A Comparative Perspective. Routledge. s. 78–96.
• Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (2020). Norsk politikk siden 1945. I Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (Red.), Valg og politikk siden 1945. Velgere, institusjoner og kritiske hendelser i norsk politisk historie. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 13–37.
• Saglie, Jo & Allern, Elin Haugsgjerd (2020). Et åpnere partisystem? I Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (Red.), Valg og politikk siden 1945. Velgere, institusjoner og kritiske hendelser i norsk politisk historie. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 182–194.
• Segaard, Signe Bock; Rose, Lawrence E & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2020). Politisk tillit i Norge – tegn til økende sosiale forskjeller? I Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (Red.), Valg og politikk siden 1945. Velgere, institusjoner og kritiske hendelser i norsk politisk historie. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 124–137.
• De Winter, Lieven; Karlsen, Rune & Schmitt, Hermann (2020). Introduction. Candidates, parties and voters in representative democracies . I De Winter, Lieven; Karlsen, Rune & Schmitt, Hermann (Red.), Parliamentary Candidates Between Voters and Parties: A Comparative Perspective. Routledge.
• De Winter, Lieven; Karlsen, Rune & Schmitt, Hermann (2020). Conclusion and perspectives. I De Winter, Lieven; Karlsen, Rune & Schmitt, Hermann (Red.), Parliamentary Candidates Between Voters and Parties: A Comparative Perspective. Routledge. s. 217–225.
• Aalberg, Toril (2020). Medienes betydning for valg og politikk i Norge. I Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (Red.), Valg og politikk siden 1945. Velgere, institusjoner og kritiske hendelser i norsk politisk historie. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 195–208.
• Saglie, Jo; Mörkenstam, Ulf & Bergh, Johannes (2020). Political Cleavages in Indigenous Representation: The Case of the Norwegian and Swedish Sámediggis. Nationalism & Ethnic Politics. 26(2), s. 105–125. doi: 10.1080/13537113.2020.1754555. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Using Lipset and Rokkan’s cleavage theory in an Indigenous context, the article compares political cleavages in internal Sámi politics in Norway and Sweden. The authors discuss the historical legacies of each country’s policies toward the Sámi and subsequent development of party systems before using survey data to analyze cleavages within the Sámi electorates. The analysis shows a prominent cleavage in Sámi politics in Norway regarding the extent of Sámi self-determination, whereas the main cleavage in Sweden can be found in the category-split between reindeer herders and other Sámi created by state policy. Contemporary cleavages in Indigenous politics may, thus, be deeply rooted in nation-building processes.

• Segaard, Signe Bock & Saglie, Jo (2020). A gender-generation gap in political representation? The contingent impact of preference voting in Norwegian municipal elections. Local Government Studies. 47(1), s. 145–165. doi: 10.1080/03003930.2020.1797691. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The article analyses the impact of preference votes on the gender balance in municipal councils in Norway, and to what extent this impact varies with candidates’ age, party and local context. We compare actual representation with a hypothetical closed-list outcome. The analyses show that both local political representation and the impact of preference votes are characterised by a gender-generation gap. Older women are underrepresented, while young women are represented on equal terms with young men. Young female candidates benefit from preference voting in larger municipalities, whereas the older generation of women loses out in both large and small municipalities. In conclusion, we argue that an intersectionality approach should pay more attention to variables other than ethnicity, including age and local context. Moreover, research on gender and political representation should take into account a gender-generation perspective.

• Ødegård, Guro; Bergh, Johannes & Saglie, Jo (2020). Why Did Young Norwegians Mobilize: External Events or Early Enfranchisement? I Eichhorn, Jan & Bergh, Johannes (Red.), Lowering the Voting Age to 16: Learning from Real Experiences Worldwide. Palgrave Macmillan. s. 189–210. Vis sammendrag

  Since the terrorist attacks in Norway in July 2011, there has been a general rise in political participation among young Norwegians. This was evident just a few weeks after the attack, when turnout among first-time voters (the age group 18–21) went up 11 percentage points in the local elections (to 46%). In those September 2011 elections, the voting age was lowered from 18 to 16 in a selected group of 20 municipalities. Turnout was also quite high among 16- and 17-year-olds (58%). This level of participation has remained stable among young voters in later elections. Relying on quantitative data on turnout by age, membership in political youth parties and qualitative interviews with first-time voters, the chapter discusses how three different mechanisms—life cycle, generational and period effects—may explain this mobilization. The authors find strong life-cycle effects which account for stable differences between age groups.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag & Matland, Richard (2020). Inviting immigrants in: Field experiments in voter mobilization among immigrants in Norway. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 66. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102160. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This paper reports on a randomized field experiment testing three direct mail mobilization appeals among immigrants in the 2015 Norwegian Local Elections. The three letters all included a general encouragement to vote in addition to practical information about voting. One paragraph was varied to present different mobilization messages. They were: 1) a message guaranteeing ballot secrecy. 2) a message with consistent prescriptive and descriptive norms emphasizing the importance of immigrant participation and that participation has been increasing. 3) a message with inconsistent prescriptive and descriptive norms emphasizing the importance of immigrant participation, but noting immigrant participation has been low. All three letters increased turnout among both first time voters and previously eligible voters. The effect is strongest, 5.8 percentage points, among those who were eligible to vote for the first time. Control group turnout was 20.9 percent. Among previously eligible immigrant voters there is an average treatment effect of 3.3 percentage point from a baseline of 40.2 percent turnout. In comparison to previous GOTV mail studies, these are very strong effects, far exceeding the typical response among low propensity voters. GOTV letters can therefore be an effective way to mobilize immigrant voters to participate in host country elections.

• Christensen, Dag Arne (2020). Stortingsvalgordningen: Mellom partiinteresser og geografi. I Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (Red.), Valg og politikk siden 1945. Velgere, institusjoner og kritiske hendelser i norsk politisk historie. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 169–180. Vis sammendrag

  Kapitlet starter med en kort historisk gjennomgang av utformingen av stortingsvalgordningen hva angår forholdsmessig representasjon både av politiske partier og valgdistrikter. Så undersøkes utviklingen i den partimessige proporsjonaliteten og dens betydning for partisystemet. Her sammenliknes Norge med utviklingen i Sverige, Danmark og Finland (alle med forholdstallsvalg). Deretter diskuteres distriktsrepresentasjonen på Stortinget, noe som har blitt ytterligere aktuelt med bakgrunn i at Stortinget i juni 2017 vedtok en ny regional inndeling der 11 fylker har erstattet de tidligere 19 fylkene som utgjør valgdistriktene ved stortingsvalg. Den nye regioninndelingen har skapt et press for tilsvarende endringer av valgdistriktsinndelingen (Flo, 2020). Det sistnevnte spørsmålet var sentralt i mandatet til valglovutvalget som overleverte sin innstillig våren 2020

• Aardal, Bernt (2019). Styring eller representasjon: et partisystem i endring. I Allern, Elin Haugsgjerd; Saglie, Jo & Østerud, Øyvind (Red.), Makt og opposisjon : De politiske partiene som demokratisk paradoks. Universitetsforlaget. s. 70–85. Vis sammendrag

  "Makt og opposisjon" diskuterer partienes rolle i det norske demokratiet. Hva ved partiene fungerer relativt bra i Norge, og hva fungerer mindre godt? Boka tar for seg de norske partienes utforming og virke både i sivilsamfunnet og i storting og regjering, sett i et internasjonalt perspektiv. "Makt og opposisjon" inneholder både fagartikler og essays. I første del presenterer ledende forskere status og bidrar med ny forskning på hver sine felt, og de diskuterer partienes bidrag til å fremme ulike demokratiske verdier og demokratiaspekter. I andre del skriver et knippe tidligere og nåværende politikere samt én erfaren journalist og politisk kommentator om mange av de samme temaene, basert på egne erfaringer. Slik får leseren kjennskap til hvordan problemstillingene fortoner seg for dem som selv er en del av eller jobber tett på det politiske liv, og vi får gode eksempler på hvordan partienes utfordringer fortoner seg i den politiske hverdagen.

• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2019). Regjeringsvalget 2017 – politisk polarisering i synet på regjeringen. I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 178–200.
• Arnesen, Sveinung; Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Aardal, Bernt (2019). Påvirker det å bli informert om konsekvenser av endringer i stortingvalgordningen velgernes holdninger til den? En surveyeksperimentell tilnærming. Norsk Statsvitenskapelig Tidsskrift. 35(2), s. 62–76. doi: 10.18261/issn.1504-2936-2019-02-01. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Påvirker informasjon om konsekvenser av forslag om å endre stortingsvalgordningen velgernes holdninger til valgordningen? Er endringsvilligheten større blant velgere som «taper» med den nåværende valgordningen? Spørsmålene belyses med bakgrunn i empiri fra tre survey-eksperimenter om 1) økt partimessig proporsjonalitet (bedre mandatuttelling for mindre partier), 2) økt geografisk proporsjonalitet (sterkere representasjon av de folkerike fylkene) og 3) økt innslag av personvalg. Resultatene viser at informasjon om konsekvenser har svært stor betydning for spørsmålet om økt partimessig proporsjonalitet. Respondenter som fikk informasjon om at forslaget kan svekke representasjonen for de større partiene, og gjøre det vanskeligere å etablere styringsdyktige regjeringer, er spesielt negative. Svarene på spørsmålet om økt partimessig proporsjonalitet er også betinget av hvorvidt respondentene selv stemte på et av de mindre partiene i stortingsvalget i 2017. Det er småpartivelgerne som ønsker en mer proporsjonal valgordning. Vi finner også at det er begrenset oppslutning om forslaget om å fordele stortingsrepresentantene etter antall innbyggere i fylkene. Oppslutningen reduseres ytterligere når respondentene blir informert om det styrker representasjonen til de folkerike valgdistriktene. Et flertall støtter videre forslaget om økt personvalg, og oppslutninger øker noe når respondentene opplyses om at det vil styrke deres egen innflytelse over hvem som blir valgt inn på Stortinget.

• Bergh, Johannes & Christensen, Dag Arne (2019). Sporadiske velgere eller permanente hjemmesittere? I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 223–236.
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Matland, Richard E. (2019). When is a reminder enough? Text message voter mobilization in a European context. Political Behavior. s. 1–21. doi: 10.1007/s11109-019-09578-1. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Sending text messages reminding people to vote has only been examined as a mobilization tool in three studies, two of them done in the United States. The results from these studies are mixed. We investigate this tool’s effectiveness using a field experiment in a different context, municipal elections in Norway. We find strong mobilization effects among groups traditionally low in participation (immigrants and youth voters). Young native Norwegians show an intent-to-treat (ITT) effect of 4.58% points, foreign nationals who have recently established Norwegian residency show an ITT effect of 2.93% points, and among immigrants who have lived in Norway for 7 years or more the treatment effect is 2.7% points. Even among native Norwegian voters over 30, with a baseline turnout of 73%, text messages generate a 0.96% points increase in turnout.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle & Kumlin, Staffan (2019). Konsensus om den norske velferdsstaten? I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 201–222.
• Aardal, Bernt & Syrstad, Tor Gaute (2019). Følelser og politikk. I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 156–177.
• Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (2019). En samlet modell for stemmegivning. I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 237–254.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle; Karlsen, Rune & Aalberg, Toril (2019). Velgere i valgkamp – forsterkes politiske forskjeller? . I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 81–102.
• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2019). Politisk dagsorden og sakseierskap ved stortingsvalget i 2017. I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 27–43.
• Aardal, Bernt; Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2019). Politiske stridsspørsmål, ideologiske dimensjoner og stemmegivning. I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 44–80.
• Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (2019). Stortingsvalget 2017 - borgerlig valgseier, men velgerne går mot venstre. I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 11–26.
• Aalberg, Toril; Maurer, Peter & Karlsen, Rune (2019). Populistiske holdninger i norsk valgkamp. I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 103–130.
• Bjørklund, Tor & Bergh, Johannes (2019). Når kjempene faller: om svekkelsen av sosialdemokratiske partier. I Allern, Elin Haugsgjerd; Saglie, Jo & Østerud, Øyvind (Red.), Makt og opposisjon : De politiske partiene som demokratisk paradoks. Universitetsforlaget. s. 86–100. Vis sammendrag

  "Makt og opposisjon" diskuterer partienes rolle i det norske demokratiet. Hva ved partiene fungerer relativt bra i Norge, og hva fungerer mindre godt? Boka tar for seg de norske partienes utforming og virke både i sivilsamfunnet og i storting og regjering, sett i et internasjonalt perspektiv. "Makt og opposisjon" inneholder både fagartikler og essays. I første del presenterer ledende forskere status og bidrar med ny forskning på hver sine felt, og de diskuterer partienes bidrag til å fremme ulike demokratiske verdier og demokratiaspekter. I andre del skriver et knippe tidligere og nåværende politikere samt én erfaren journalist og politisk kommentator om mange av de samme temaene, basert på egne erfaringer. Slik får leseren kjennskap til hvordan problemstillingene fortoner seg for dem som selv er en del av eller jobber tett på det politiske liv, og vi får gode eksempler på hvordan partienes utfordringer fortoner seg i den politiske hverdagen.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle (2019). Moderation or radicalisation? How executive power affects right-wing populists’ satisfaction with democracy. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 57, s. 31–45. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.09.008. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Aardal, Bernt & Bergh, Johannes (2018). Elections in Context : The 2017 Norwegian Election. West European Politics. 41(5), s. 1208–1216. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2017.1415778. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Karlsen, Rune & Aardal, Bernt (2016). Political values count but issue ownership decides? How stable and dynamic factors influence party set and vote choice in multiparty systems. International Political Science Review. 37(2), s. 261–276. doi: 10.1177/0192512114558456. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This article addresses the relationship between latent predispositions and political campaign communication. We propose that political values are decisive in a voter’s calculation of which parties she may consider voting for, constituting his or her party set. Furthermore, we argue that the theory of issue ownership contributes to explaining the choice of party within the party set. In addition to investigating salient single issue ownership, we relate issue ownership to parties presenting voters with comprehensive policy packages and study the effect of cumulative issue ownership, that is, issue ownership in several policy areas. We test the hypotheses using data from the Norwegian Election Study of 2009. Our findings support our expectations: stable elements affect which parties are included in the party set, and issue ownership affect the choice between the parties within the set. However, political values also affect the choice between parties in the set. Finally, our data show that cumulative issue ownership has a greater effect than issue ownership of one particularly salient issue. The final section of the article discusses the implications for the theory of issue ownership in general and the model presented in this article in particular.

• Karlsen, Rune & Bergh, Johannes (2016). Norway. European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. s. 199–203. doi: 10.1111/2047-8852.12141. Vis sammendrag

  The main political event in Norway in 2015 was the municipal and county council elections in September. The results proved to be disappointing for the two national governing parties: the Conservative Party and right-wing populist Progress Party. The main winner of the elections was the Greens. They established themselves for the first time as a national political force by gaining representation in all parts of the country. The European refugee crisis dominated political debate in Norway for much of the year. Falling oil prices negatively affected the Norwegian economy, and prompted politicians to address economic issues in a way that they have not had to in some time.

• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne; Folkestad, Bjarte; Karlsen, Rune & Saglie, Jo (2016). Personvalg ved stortingsvalg? Norsk Statsvitenskapelig Tidsskrift. 32(3), s. 217–242. doi: 10.18261/issn.1504-2936-2016-03-01. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Denne artikkelen vurderer effekten av en eventuell innføring av reelt personvalg ved stortingsvalg. Utgangspunkt er tidligere forskning og simuleringer basert på data fra norske valg. Vi ser dels på mulige effekter på valgkamp og parlamentarisk arbeid, og dels på effekter på hvem som velges inn på Stortinget. Personvalg ved stortingsvalg kan få konsekvenser for Stortingets sammensetning, og små partier ser ut til å berøres sterkere enn store. Men omfanget vil være avhengig av den konkrete utformingen av en personvalgordning: En lav sperregrense kombinert med en mulighet til å gi mer enn én personstemme gir større spillerom for velgerinnflytelse også på listene til de større partiene. Effektene vil også være avhengig av forhold som ligger utenfor Stortingets kontroll, som i hvilken grad velgerne tar personstemmeretten i bruk og i hvilken grad kandidatene bruker muligheten til å drive personlig valgkamp.

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• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2023). Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. 344 s.
• De Winter, Lieven; Karlsen, Rune & Schmitt, Hermann (2020). Parliamentary Candidates Between Voters and Parties: A Comparative Perspective. Routledge. 235 s.
• Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (2020). Valg og politikk siden 1945. Velgere, institusjoner og kritiske hendelser i norsk politisk historie. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. 297 s.
• Eichhorn, Jan & Bergh, Johannes (2020). Lowering the Voting Age to 16: Learning from Real Experiences Worldwide. Palgrave Macmillan. 245 s. Vis sammendrag

  This book explores the consequences of lowering the voting age to 16 from a global perspective, bringing together empirical research from countries where at least some 16-year-olds are able to vote. With the aim to show what really happens when younger people can take part in elections, the authors engage with the key debates on earlier enfranchisement and examine the lead-up to and impact of changes to the voting age in countries across the globe. The book provides the most comprehensive synthesis on this topic, including detailed case studies and broad comparative analyses. It summarizes what can be said about youth political participation and attitudes, and highlights where further research is needed. The findings will be of great interest to researchers working in youth political socialization and engagement, as well as to policymakers, youth workers and activists.

• Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (2019). Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. 258 s.

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• Bergh, Johannes; Hesstvedt, Stine & Karlsen, Rune (2022). Dagsorden og sakseierskap ved stortingsvalget 2021. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Den politiske dagsorden og partienes troverdighet på de saksområdene som er på dagsorden er viktig for å forstå utfallet av et valg. Velgernes dagsorden referer til de sakene velgerne er opptatt av og som de mener er viktige for deres stemmegivning. Hvilke saker som dominerer velgernes dagsorden er sentralt fordi politiske partier har varierende troverdighet hos velgere på ulike saker. Dette refereres til, både i faglitteraturen og offentligheten, som partienes sakseierskap. Formålet med dette notatet er å presentere nye tall for dagsorden og sakseierskap ved stortingsvalget 2021.

• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2020). Hvilken valgordning får flest velgere til å stemme? Om sammenhengen mellom valgordninger og valgdeltakelse. (Vedlegg til NOU 2020:6 "Frie og hemmelige valg : ny valglov"). Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

• Fladmoe, Audun (2020). Valgkampstudien 2017. Frafall, vekting og representativitet. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Haugsgjerd, Atle & Segaard, Signe Bock (2020). Politisk tillit, lokaldemokrati og legitimitet. Kunnskapsstatus og utviklingstrekk. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Vis sammendrag

  Denne rapporten, som er den første rapporten av to i regi av prosjektet Forskning på demokrati og tillit og politisk ulikhet, belyser politisk tillit ut fra en overordnet hensikt om å gi en nærmere teoretisk og empirisk forståelse av hva politisk tillit er, hva som betinger politisk tillit, og hvordan politisk tillit er fordelt mellom ulike befolkningsgrupper i Norge. Dette gjør vi på to måter. Først går vi gjennom eksisterende internasjonal og norsk forskning, for dermed å gi en oversikt over den kunnskapen som allerede finnes om politisk tillit. Deretter gjør vi en empirisk deskriptiv analyse av status og utviklingen i den norske befolkningens politiske tillit til lokaldemokratiet, dets institusjoner og aktører. At analysene har et deskriptivt siktemål, innebærer at vi legger vekt på generelle mønstre. Det betyr samtidig at det ligger utenfor denne rapportens siktemål å empirisk belyse årsaksforklaringer. Analysene i denne rapporten viser overordnet at politikere og institusjoner i det norske lokaldemokratiet nyter stor grad av tillit i befolkningen. Ser man på de gjennomsnittlige nivåene av tillit til både lokalpolitikere og institusjoner, er disse høye i en internasjonal sammenheng. Samtidig finner vi også en viss negativ endring i tillit for befolkningen som helhet over tid. Tillitsnivåene i 2019 er lavere enn i 2011 og er på omtrent samme nivå som i 2007. Videre viser analysene at tilliten til en viss grad er skjevt sosialt fordelt i befolkningen, og at enkelte befolkningsgrupper skiller seg ut med systematisk lavere tillit enn befolkningen for øvrig.

• Bergh, Johannes & Saglie, Jo (2018). Personvalg ved stortingsvalg : Konsekvenser av ulike valgordninger (Vedlegg til NOU 2020:6 "Frie og hemmelige valg : ny valglov"). Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Matland, Richard (2018). Voter Mobilisation in a High-Turnout Context: Get Out the Vote Experiments in the 2017 Norwegian Parliamentary Election. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  What can be done to increase voter participation in elections? One possibility is to contact voters individually and try to get them to the polls. This report contains results from several experiments with “Get Out the Vote” mobilisation techniques in the Norwegian local elections of 2015 and the parliamentary election of 2017. These experiments include letters in the post, SMS text messages and phone calls to voters. The general finding is that mobilisation drives such as these are more effective in local elections where turnout is lower than in parliamentary elections. SMS text messages and letters in the post can be quite effective in mobilising low-turnout groups, such as immigrants and young voters in local elections.

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• Saglie, Jo (2024). Eldre og politisk representasjon.
• Rommetvedt, Hilmar; Saglie, Jo & Segaard, Signe Bock (2024). Coalition formation in Norwegian municipalities: national blocs or local variation?
• Segaard, Signe Bock & Shamshiri-Petersen, Ditte (2023). Cross-pressured voters: The issue of environment and climate in the wealthy oil nation of Norway . Vis sammendrag

  Climate & environment has constituted a dominating political issue in many elections all over Europe the last years. Green parties have mobilised new voters, and old parties have tried to adopt a greener profile. However, there is a trade-off between a progressive approach to green transition and climate change mitigation, and a traditional (both left wing and right wing) approach to welfare and economic issues. By applying the wealthy oil nation of Norway as an extreme case, this paper aims at shedding light on the political dilemma embedded in this trade-off, and on how it is perceived by voters. Is seems plausible that a substantial number of Norwegian voters hold ambivalent attitudes towards the green transition, as it is perceived incompatible with continued (oil-based) wealth and welfare, and thus find themselves in an attitudinal cross-pressure, as they want to favour both issues. The question to be put under investigation is how Norwegian voters reflect upon the dilemma and how the cross-pressured voters reconcile their conflicting attitudes. The questions are addressed by analysing voters’ qualitative and unsolicited election diaries, collected by the app “My Election Diary” throughout the 2021 Norwegian national election campaign. The diaries allow for gaining insight into voters’ authentic, unprompted reflections on climate & environment and welfare, which both were salient issues in the campaign. This in turn contributes with a more nuanced picture of the cross-pressured and ambivalent voter

• Saglie, Jo (2023). Sentrum-periferi: en skillelinje i endring?
• Segaard, Signe Bock (2023). Signe Bock Segaard: Valgdeltagelse og tilgjengelighet: Har Norge noe å lære av Danmark? Altinget.no. Vis sammendrag

  Mister vi noe når stemmegivningen strekkes ut over mange uker? I vårt naboland, Danmark, er valgdeltagelsen på et nivå som vi i Norge bare kan beundre og kanskje bli litt misunnelige på, skriver forsker I ved Institutt for samfunnsforskning, Signe Bock Segaard.

• Hesstvedt, Stine & Saglie, Jo (2023). Centre and periphery: a changing cleavage in Norwegian politics? . Vis sammendrag

  In the literature of electoral politics, geography has been rediscovered as a political cleavage. Traditionally, the work of Lipset and Rokkan (1967) described the urban-rural cleavage as a power struggle over economic resources and national identity that cut across other cleavages. Current research, however, finds increased overlap in attitudes, depicting the rise of a green, progressive and left-leaning urban electorate and a nationalist and conservative rural population that contributes to elevated levels of polarization. This paper provides new knowledge about the development of the urban-rural cleavage in European multi-party systems over time, by analysing six decades of unique survey data from Norway, where the cleavage have been persistently vital to electoral politics. Specifically, we study changes in the attitudes of rural and urban populations towards new and old politics issues between 1957 and 2021. We also assess the changing content and saliency of the urban-rural cleavage by making use of Most Important Issue (MIP) survey questions. Overall, the paper contributes with novel insights of the development of a century-old cleavage that has again come to the fore in electoral politics.

• Hesstvedt, Stine & Saglie, Jo (2023). Cross-cutting or overlapping? The urban-rural cleavage in a historical perspective. Vis sammendrag

  In the literature of electoral politics, geography has been rediscovered as a political cleavage. Traditionally, the work of Lipset and Rokkan (1967) described the urban-rural cleavage as a power struggle over economic resources and the centre–periphery cleavage as a struggle over national identity. Both of these cut across other cleavages. Current research, however, finds increased overlap in attitudes, depicting the rise of a green, progressive and left-leaning urban electorate and a nationalist and conservative rural population that contributes to elevated levels of polarization. This paper provides new knowledge about the development of the urban-rural cleavage in European multi-party systems over time, by analysing six decades of unique survey data from Norway. We ask: How and to what extent has the urban-rural cleavage become more overlapping or cross-cutting since the 1950s and until today? Specifically, we study changes in the attitudes of rural and urban populations towards new and old politics issues between 1977 and 2021. We also assess the changing content and saliency of the urban-rural cleavage by making use of Most Important Issue (MIP) survey questions. Overall, the paper contributes with novel insights of the development of a century-old cleavage that has again come to the fore in electoral politics.

• Shamshiri-Petersen, Ditte & Segaard, Signe Bock (2022). Hvad synes du om valgkampen? Forskere beder om hjælp via ny app. videnskab.dk.
• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2022). Norway: Political Developments and Data in 2021. Victory for the Centre-Left. European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. 61(1), s. 351–361. doi: 10.1111/2047-8852.12377. Vis sammendrag

  The main political event in Norway in 2021 was the Storting (parliamentary) election in September. After eight years of rule by a Conservative Party/Høyre Prime Minister, the 2021 election was a decisive win for the centre-left. However, it was a win by a fragmented group of five parties, only two of which ended up forming the new government. Despite the new large centre-left majority in Parliament, the new government, like the previous one, is a minority government. The Covid-19 pandemic dominated Norwegian life through much of 2021, with two large-scale lockdowns early in the year and in December. While the last (December) lockdown was a bit controversial, the government's handling of the pandemic was largely depoliticized. The main issues for voters in the election were environmental issues (including climate change). The pandemic did not register as an important issue among voters.

• Segaard, Signe Bock (2021). Sådan blev Norge klar til at holde valg med høje smittetal. [Radio]. Danmarks Radio, P1 Morgen.
• Segaard, Signe Bock (2021). Demokratiet må utvikle seg i tråd med tiden . Kommunal rapport. s. 19–19.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle; Karlsen, Rune; Steen-Johnsen, Kari & Beyer, Audun (2021). Misinformed or uninformed? A panel-study of how the use of social media as a news source influences political knowledge .
• Haugsgjerd, Atle & Linde, Jonas (2021). Vehicles of democratic dissatisfaction? Populist radical right electoral success and satisfaction with democracy in Europe 1976-2019.
• Segaard, Signe Bock (2021). Det gode lokaldemokrati? Selvstyre, velferd og politisk tillit.
• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2021). Norway: Political Developments and Data in 2020. European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. doi: 10.1111/2047-8852.12325.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle (2021). En europeisk vänstersväng? Om det norska valet.
• de Blok, Lisanne & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2021). Take a Chance on Me: Experienced Risk and Political Trust.
• Segaard, Signe Bock (2021). Det må bli et klimavalg. [Avis]. Dagsavisen.
• Bergh, Johannes & Christensen, Dag Arne (2020). Ulikhet i innvandrernes valgdeltakelse i Norge. I Segaard, Signe Bock (Red.), Det norske lokaldemokratiets legitimitet. Tillit, deltakelse og ulikhet. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. s. 81–95. Vis sammendrag

  Hvor mye «goodwill» i form av legitimitet og folkets tillit har lokaldemokratiet, dets aktører og institusjoner egentlig å gå på? I denne rapporten belyser vi, ved hjelp av forskjellige perspektiver og et omfattende datamateriale, ulike aspekter ved politisk tillit og demokratisk legitimitet. Premisset vårt er at hvis demokratiet – og det lokale selvstyret mer spesifikt – skal fungere i praksis, må det ha oppslutning i befolkningen. På denne måten handler rapporten om grunnlaget for lokalpolitisk legitimitet og tillit, slik det ligger ikke bare i sosial og politisk (u)likhet i deltakelse og representasjon, men også i de systemer, medvirkningsstrukturer og prosesser som eksisterer i demokratiet, særlig på lokalt nivå. Rapporten retter søkelyset mot spesifikke problemstillinger knyttet til politisk og sosial (u) likhet i deltakelse og politisk tillit som så belyses gjennom empiriske analyser ut fra ulike perspektiver: innbyggerperspektiv, politikerperspektiv, systemperspektiv og prosessperspektiv. Hensikten er å forsøke å forstå generelle mønstre i utviklingen og statusen for den lokalpolitiske legitimiteten og tilliten: Hva skyldes disse mønstrene, og hvilke konsekvenser har de? Det er ikke mulig å gi entydige svar og ei heller å belyse alle årsaker og konsekvenser, men i denne rapporten vil noen av disse bli undersøkt og drøftet nærmere. Avslutningsvis samles trådene, og legitimiteten til det norske demokrati anno 2020 – og lokaldemokrati spesielt – drøftes.

• Winsvold, Marte; Haugsgjerd, Atle; Saglie, Jo & Segaard, Signe Bock (2020). Trust by default. What is political trust - and what is political distrust?
• Bergh, Johannes (2020). Hva kan 70 år med forskning på demokratiet fortelle oss? Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.).
• Bergh, Johannes (2020). Stemmerett for 16-åringer øker valgdeltagelsen senere i livet. Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.).
• Segaard, Signe Bock & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2020). Hvor mye tillit har vi til lokalpolitikken? Kommunal rapport.
• Aardal, Bernt & Syrstad, Tor Gaute (2019). Emosjoner og politikk.
• Segaard, Signe Bock & Saglie, Jo (2019). A gender-generation gap in political representation? The impact of preferential voting in Norwegian municipal elections. Vis sammendrag

  The article looks into gender balance in municipal councils in ‘one of the most gender equal countries in the world’: Norway. We aim to combine a gender-generation approach and an intra-state context (municipal size) perspective. We ask: what is the impact of preferential votes on gender representation, and to what extent does the impact vary between age groups and municipalities? In order to analyse representation of men and women in different generations and in municipalities of different size, we use a complete data set with all candidates (58093) for the 2015 Norwegian municipal elections. These data enable us to compare actual representation with a hypothetical closed-list outcome (elected candidates if preferential votes had not counted, and list position alone had been decisive). The analyses clearly show that political representation in local councils is not just gendered – more men than women are elected – but characterized by a gender-generation gap. Older women are underrepresented, while young women are represented on equal terms with young men. Moreover, this gender-generation gap depends on municipal size and so does the impact of the open-list system. Indeed, young female candidates benefit from preferential voting in larger municipalities, whereas the older generation of women lose in both large and small municipalities.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle; Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (2019). "Folk flest" har fortsatt tillit til politikerne i Norge, men også her har demokratiet utfordringer. Forskning.no.
• Segaard, Signe Bock (2019). Dagsrevyen - ekstra program om det danske folketingsvalg. [TV]. NRK1.
• Segaard, Signe Bock (2019). Dagsnytt18 - intervju om det danske folketingsvalg. [TV]. NRK2/ NRK P2.

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