Adrian Farner Rogne

• Rogne, Adrian Farner & Salvanes, Kari Vea (2026). Kjønnsforskjeller i karriereutvikling etter fødsel av første barn. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning (TfS). 67(1), s. 1–30. doi: 10.18261/tfs.67.1.6. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Vi analyserer utviklingen i arbeidsmarkedsutfall etter fødsel av første barn for norske kvinner og menn som fikk sitt første barn mellom 2015 og 2021. Målet er å beskrive endringene og kjønnsforskjellene i arbeidsmarkedsutfall knyttet til overgangen til foreldreskap og å undersøke om disse henger sammen med jobb-bytter i retning av mer familievennlige jobber etter fødsel blant kvinner. I tråd med tidligere forskning finner vi en sterk nedgang i sysselsetting og inntekt blant kvinner etter første fødsel, noe som vedvarer i hele måleperioden på 5 år etter fødsel. Samlet sett tyder funnene på at redusert inntekt i hovedsak forklares av redusert sysselsetting som kan være drevet av permisjoner eller midlertidige karriereavbrudd. Det kan også delvis forklares av redusert arbeidstid og timelønn. Vi finner en økning i andelen sysselsatte kvinner som er ansatt i offentlig sektor etter fødsel, som typisk regnes for å være mer familievennlig enn privat sektor. Analysene tyder på at dette er drevet av at det er flere i privat enn i offentlig sektor som ikke er i arbeid etter fødsel. Vi finner noen tegn til at kvinner endrer yrke i retning av mer familievennlige yrker. Snarere enn en markant endring etter fødsel av første barn skjer dette gjennom en gradvis tilpasning over tid.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Knutsen, Tora Kjærnes & Modalsli, Jørgen (2026). A college on every cape: gender equality, gender segregation and local college openings. European Sociological Review. 42(4), s. 655–674. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcaf060. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Fauske, Agnes & Hart, Rannveig Kaldager (2025). Educational Expansions and Fertility: Evidence from Norwegian College Reforms. European Journal of Population. 41(1). doi: 10.1007/s10680-025-09737-7. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Previous research has pointed to educational expansions and increased educational attainment among women as an important factor contributing to reductions in fertility levels and changes in family formation patterns in the second half of the twentieth century. We investigate one potential mechanism that may have contributed to these developments—the establishment of local colleges providing access to higher education for broader segments of the population. We study the establishment of regional colleges in Norway 1973–83. Taking advantage of population-wide administrative register data, historical data sources and recent developments in difference-in-differences methodology, we employ an event study design to assess the impact of local colleges on cohort fertility and age-specific fertility outcomes, as well as age at marriage and regional mobility as potential mechanisms. Our findings suggest that access to local colleges did not impact fertility, family formation or mobility to any substantial degree.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Borgen, Solveig Topstad & Nordrum, Erlend Ingridsønn (2025). School Segregation and Native Flight: Evidence from School Catchment Area Borders. European Societies. 27(3), s. 433–467. doi: 10.1162/euso_a_00021. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Although extensively theorized, determining the mechanisms that produce ethnic or racial segregation in schools and neighborhoods has proven difficult. We investigate one potential mechanism behind ethnic segregation; native flight from schools. In contexts where school enrollment is determined primarily by geographic proximity to schools, Native or White parents with a preference for schools with low minority concentrations may choose to move away from schools with higher minority concentrations among students, contributing to both residential and school segregation. Using detailed, population-wide, geo-coded register data on families and school catchment areas for elementary schools in Oslo, Norway, we investigate whether native parents move away from schools with higher shares of students with non-Western immigrant backgrounds. We first show that native origin families systematically move away from schools with high shares of students with non-Western immigrant backgrounds. Employing a Geographic Regression Discontinuity design, exploiting the fact that catchment area borders sort neighboring children into different schools, our results indicate that such moves may be causally linked to local school characteristics, not just their neighborhoods. This may contribute to segregation in schools and neighborhoods. However, the results are ambiguous and sensitive to model specifications, and more research is needed to draw firm conclusions.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner & Frisli, Siri (2025). Educational expansion reforms and intergenerational educational mobility in Norway. Social Forces. s. 1–25. doi: 10.1093/sf/soaf101. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The latter half of the 20th century was marked by a massive expansion of higher educational systems in many Western countries. This development provided greater educational opportunities, resulted in a marked increase in educational attainment, and has been attributed as an important factor behind increased intergenerational educational mobility. Most previous studies of these developments are based on analyses of aggregate trends in educational attainment and mobility and overlook the geographical dimension of educational expansions. The geographic location of colleges and the local availability of higher educational institutions may have had important impacts on local patterns of intergenerational educational mobility. We study the impacts of major educational expansion reforms that took place between 1969 and 1993 in Norway and resulted in a massive decentralization of higher educational opportunities. Combining recent developments in differences-in-differences methodology, detailed data on the establishment and upgrading of such institutions, and population-wide register data on social origins and educational attainment, we study the effects of the establishment and upgrading of local colleges on educational mobility. Results suggest that these improvements in local educational opportunities had little to no impact on intergenerational educational mobility locally. We discuss our findings in light of the Norwegian welfare state context.

• Hootegem, Arno Van; Rogne, Adrian Farner; Cros, Caroline Tveter; Røgeberg, Ole Jørgen & Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde (2025). Social origins and socioeconomic outcomes: a combined twin and adoption study. European Sociological Review. 41(5), s. 793–807. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcaf029. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Parents and children tend to have similar socioeconomic status (SES). Sociological theory has often emphasized the role of social mechanisms in intergenerational transmission, including the influence of the broader rearing environment as well as parental investments and aid, but often not allotted an important role to genetics. Accumulating evidence suggests that genetics play an important role in the transmission of SES from parents to children. Yet, estimates differ substantially across data sets, measures and methods. Using two research designs that account for potential genetic confounding, and high-quality data from Norway, we estimate the strength of the intergenerational social transmission of a range of SES indicators. By triangulating data and designs, we obtain estimates that are more robust to idiosyncratic modelling assumptions. Measures of Norwegian parents’ socioeconomic position predict their children’s socioeconomic outcomes, but purely social mechanisms only account for a fifth of the total explained variance in intergenerational transmission.

• Hootegem, Arno Van; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde (2024). Heritability of class and status: Implications for sociological theory and research. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility. 92. doi: 10.1016/j.rssm.2024.100940. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Most individual-level outcomes of interest to sociologists are indirectly influenced by genetics, including socioeconomic outcomes like education, income, wealth, and occupational status. Despite this knowledge, an integration of sociological theories of class and status with the research literature on genetic heritability is largely lacking, and no previous studies have investigated the role of genetics specifically for class attainment – a central concept in sociology. To amend this, we estimate how much variation in such positions can be attributed to genetic and environmental factors in roughly 5000 Norwegian twin pairs. The results suggest that the variability in class and status attainment is influenced by genetics to a non-negligible degree, while shared environmental factors play a modest role as well. This is in line with previous findings using genetically informed designs to study other socioeconomic outcomes. Our study suggests that in addition to social environments, variation in class and status attainment can partly be explained by genetics.

• Thomas, Michael; Syse, Astri; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Gleditsch, Rebecca (2022). Assessing the Accuracy of National Population Projections: A Case Study of Norway. Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. 56, s. 31–64. doi: 10.23979/fypr.109057. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Few producers of official population projections provide regular evaluations of past projection inaccuracies. This paper assesses deviations between the projected and registered total population for Norway (1996–2018), as well as deviations in the age structure, total fertility rate and number of births, period life expectancy at birth and number of deaths, and net international migration. Projected life expectancy was consistently lower than the real development. Few systematic deviations were observed for fertility up to 2009, but thereafter fertility has been consistently overprojected. However, the deviations between projected and realised trends in births and deaths have been relatively small as compared to those for net international migration. The projections produced between 1996–2005 underestimated long-term population growth due primarily to the unforeseen increase in immigration following EU expansion in 2004. More recent projections contain no consistent under- or overprojection of net migration and the deviations for the total population have been moderate.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner & Syse, Astri (2021). Corrigendum to “The Effect of Retirement on Male Mortality. Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Norway”. European Sociological Review. 37(3). doi: 10.1093/esr/jcaa072. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Stonawski, Marcin Jan; Rogne, Adrian Farner; Christiansen, Henning; Bang, Henrik & Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde (2021). Ethnic segregation and native out-migration in Copenhagen. European Urban and Regional Studies. doi: 10.1177/09697764211039183. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  In this article, we study how the local concentration of ethnic minorities relates to the likelihood of out-migration by natives in Copenhagen, the capital of Denmark. In US studies, a high or increasing proportion of racial or ethnic minorities in inner-city neighborhoods is seen as an important motivation for White middle-class families’ out-migration to racially and ethnically homogeneous suburbs. The relatively egalitarian Scandinavian setting offers a contrasting case, where inner cities are less deprived and where minority groups primarily consist of immigrants and the children of immigrants who have arrived over the past few decades. We use population-wide, longitudinal administrative data covering a 12-year period, and measures of individualized neighborhoods based on exact coordinates for place of residence, to examine whether out-migration is associated with minority concentrations in the Copenhagen area. Our results largely support the presence of a native out-migration mobility pattern, in contrast to much existing literature. We also show that responses to increasing minority concentrations vary across the life course and between natives and children of immigrants.

• Haandrikman, Karen; Costa, Rafael; Malmberg, Bo; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Sleutjes, Bart (2021). Socio-economic segregation in European cities. A comparative study of Brussels, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Oslo and Stockholm. Urban Geography. doi: 10.1080/02723638.2021.1959778. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The purpose of this study is to compare socioeconomic segregation patterns and levels in Brussels, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Oslo, and Stockholm with uniform measurements. Previous research has been hampered by conceptual and methodological shortcomings. We use harmonized datasets containing geocoded indicators based on a nearest-neighbors approach. Our analyses offer an unprecedented comparison of patterns and levels of socio-spatial inequalities in European capitals at multiple scales. Using maps, segregation indices and percentile plots, we find that for all cities, the segregation of the rich is much stronger than the segregation of the poor. Macro-scale poverty segregation is most prominent in Stockholm and Brussels, and quite low in Amsterdam, while macro-scale affluence segregation is most pronounced in Oslo. At micro-scales, Brussels and Stockholm stand out with very high local poverty concentrations, indicating high levels of polarization. We interpret differences in the light of spatial inequalities, welfare regimes, housing systems, migration and area-based interventions.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Pedersen, Willy & Soest, Tilmann von (2020). Intelligence, alcohol consumption, and adverse consequences. A study of young Norwegian men. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. 49(4), s. 411–418. doi: 10.1177/1403494820944719. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Research suggests that intelligence is positively related to alcohol consumption. However, some studies of people born around 1950, particularly from Sweden, have reported that higher intelligence is associated with lower consumption and fewer alcohol-related problems. We investigated the relationships between intelligence, alcohol consumption, and adverse consequences of drinking in young men from Norway (a neighboring Scandinavian country) born in the late 1970s. Methods: This analysis was based on the population-based Young in Norway Longitudinal Study. Our sample included young men who had been followed from their mid-teens until their late 20s (n = 1126). Measures included self-reported alcohol consumption/intoxication, alcohol use disorders (AUDIT), and a scale measuring adverse consequences of drinking. Controls included family background, parental bonding, and parents’ and peers’ drinking. Intelligence test scores—scaled in 9 “stanines” (population mean of 5 and standard deviation of 2)—were taken from conscription assessment. Results: Men with higher intelligence scores reported average drinking frequency and slightly fewer adverse consequences in their early 20s. In their late 20s, they reported more frequent drinking than men with lower intelligence scores (0.30 more occasions per week, per stanine, age adjusted; 95% CI: 0.12 to 0. 49). Intelligence was not associated with intoxication frequency at any age and did not moderate the relationships between drinking frequency and adverse consequences. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the relationship between intelligence and drinking frequency is age dependent. Discrepancies with earlier findings from Sweden may be driven by changes in drinking patterns.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Andersson, Eva K.; Malmberg, Bo & Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde (2019). Neighbourhood Concentration and Representation of Non-European migrants: New results from Norway. European Journal of Population. s. 1–13. doi: 10.1007/s10680-019-09522-3. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  In a previous study, Andersson et al. (A comparative study of segregation patterns in Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden: neighbourhood concentration and representation of non-European migrants. Eur J Popul 34:1–25, 2018) compared the patterns of residential segregation between non-European immigrants and the rest of the population in four European countries, using the k-nearest neighbours approach to compute comparable measures of segregation. This approach relies on detailed geo-coded data and can be used to assess segregation levels at different neighbourhood scales. This paper updates these findings with results from Norway. Using similar data and methods, we document both similarities and striking differences between the segregation patterns in Norway and Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden. While the segregation patterns in Norway at larger scales are roughly comparable to those found in Denmark, but with higher concentrations of non-European immigrants in the most immigrant-dense large-scale neighbourhoods, the micro-level segregation is much lower in Norway than in the other countries. While an important finding by Andersson et al. (2018) was that segregation levels at the micro-scale of 200 nearest neighbours fell within a narrow band, with a dissimilarity index between 0.475 and 0.512 in the four countries under study, segregation levels at this scale are clearly lower in Norway, with a dissimilarity index of 0.429. We discuss possible explanations for these patterns.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Pedersen, Willy & Bakken, Anders (2019). Immigration and the decline in adolescent binge drinking. Drug and Alcohol Dependence. 203, s. 35–43. doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2019.05.031. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Background Adolescent alcohol consumption has fallen in most Western countries over the past two decades, while immigrants and children of immigrants from low-consumption countries constitute a growing proportion of teenagers in many Western nations. We investigate the extent to which immigrants and children of immigrants have contributed to the decline in adolescent heavy episodic drinking in Oslo, the capital of Norway. Methods We use repeated cross-sectional survey data on adolescents in grades 9-11 in Oslo (aged around 14–16, N = 54,474) from 1996 to 2018. We use data on heavy episodic drinking/intoxication in the past 12 months (dichotomized), immigrant background, sex and grade. We decompose the trend into components attributable to changes in the demographic composition of the adolescent population (by immigrant background, grade and sex), and to changes in drinking patterns within different groups. Confidence intervals (CIs) are obtained by bootstrap resampling. Results The proportion of adolescents with immigrant backgrounds increased from 21% to 35% over the time span. The proportion reporting having been intoxicated fell from 42% to 25%. Most of the decline stems from reduced heavy episodic drinking in the majority population, accounting for 70.8% of the reduction (95% CI: 67.5–74.2). The increased proportion of adolescents with an immigrant background accounts for 21.4% of the decline (95% CI: 19.2–23.8). Conclusions An increasing proportion of immigrants and children of immigrants with low alcohol consumption explains one-fifth of the decline in the prevalence of adolescent heavy episodic drinking in Oslo.

• Larsen, Edvard Nergård; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Birkelund, Gunn Elisabeth (2018). Perfect for the Job? Overqualification of Immigrants and their Descendants in the Norwegian Labor Market. Social Inclusion. 6(3), s. 78–103. doi: 10.17645/si.v6i3.1451. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Compared to the majority population, studies have shown that non-western immigrants are more likely to work in jobs for which they are overqualified. These findings are based on coarse measures of jobs, and an important question is how sensitive these findings are to the definition of jobs. By using detailed information from Norwegian register data 2014, we provide a methodological innovation in comparing individuals working in the same occupation, industry, sector, firm, and municipality. In this way, we measure the degree of overqualification among workers within more than 653,000 jobs. We differentiate between immigrants and their descendants originating from Western Europe, the New EU countries, other Western countries, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Africa and Asia (except MENA countries), and South and Central America, and compare their outcomes with the majority population holding the same jobs. We find that immigrants from all country of origin groups are more likely to be overqualified compared to the majority population and to descendants of immigrants. However, the prevalence of overqualification decreases with time since immigration.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner & Syse, Astri (2018). The Effect of Retirement on Male Mortality. Quasi-experimental Evidence from Norway. European Sociological Review. 34(5), s. 501–517. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcy023. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  On average, people who retire earlier die sooner, partly because poor health is an important reason for early retirement. Several theories also predict that retirement is detrimental to health and increases mortality, and that retirement should affect people in different occupations differently. Yet, there is apparently no consensus about the causal relationship between retirement and mortality. We treat a Norwegian pension reform that lowered retirement eligibility age by 3 years in 1973 as a natural experiment. The reform affected virtually the entire elderly working population. We estimate the long-term effect of retirement age and the short-term effect of retirement eligibility using instrumental variables and difference-in-differences methods. The results show that neither earlier retirement nor retirement eligibility affect male mortality substantially. Analyses by educational level and occupational groups show no occupational or educational differences in the effect of retirement on mortality. We also argue that the 1973 reform serves as a critical case, a situation where we should be able to identify an effect if there were one. In other words, this study provides strong evidence that retirement does not have a causal effect on male mortality.

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Wentzel, Mirjam & Østbakken, Kjersti Misje (2025). Alt blir bra? Koronapandemiens konsekvenser for likestilling i arbeidslivet. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Denne rapporten undersøker om koronapandemien påvirket ulikheter mellom kvinner og menn, og mellom innvandrere og norskfødte, på ulike områder i arbeidslivet.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner & Salvanes, Kari Vea (2025). Deltid. Kjønnsforskjeller og utvikling, 2015–2022. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  I dette notatet presenterer vi oppdaterte tall for utviklingen i deltidsarbeid i personers hovedarbeidsforhold i perioden 2017–2022. Utvalget er avgrenset til personer i alderen 20–62 og omfatter personer som er registrert som lønnsmottakere per 15. mars hvert år. Personer som er midlertidig fraværende grunnet permisjon, ulønnet fravær eller lignende, er ikke definert som i arbeid. Andelen som er registrert med kort deltidsstilling (mindre enn eller lik 50 prosent) i sitt hovedarbeidsforhold, har holdt seg forholdsvis stabil i perioden 2017–2022, på rundt 11,8–12,5 prosent for kvinner og 6–6,5 prosent for menn. Blant kvinner har andelen som jobber fulltid økt fra 2017 til 2022, samtidig som andelen som jobber lang deltid (mellom 50 og 100 prosent) har gått ned – fra 15,6 prosent i 2017 til 13,5 prosent i 2022. Disse generelle trendene gjelder uavhengig av sektor og type arbeidstidsordning (ordinær vs. skift) eller om personene har barn, og vi finner også at andelen i fulltidsarbeid har økt blant kvinner med barn. Blant menn er andelen som jobber deltid, forholdsvis stabil i samme periode, men andelen som jobber fulltid, har gått opp, og andelen som ikke jobber har gått ned. Både korte og lange deltidsstillinger er vanligere blant kvinner, men i næringer og yrker der mange kvinner har deltidsstillinger, er det også typisk flere menn som har deltidsstillinger. Forekomsten av deltidsarbeid varierer systematisk med alder. Første del av 20-årene er en alder preget av høy forekomst av korte deltidsstillilinger, men forekomsten reduseres gradvis når overgangen til lange deltidsstillinger og fulltidsstillinger overtar mot slutten av 20-årene, etter hvert som flere fullfører sine utdanningsløp. I 30-årene etablerer det seg markante kjønnsforskjeller, hvor menn i betydelig høyere grad jobber i fulltidsstillinger enn kvinner. Ettersom det ikke er de samme kohortene vi følger over tid, kan trendene vi finner reflektere både alderseffekter, men også kohorteffekter – altså at forekomsten av deltidsarbeid varierer mellom kohorter. Når vi studerer utviklingen i deltidsarbeid for de samme fødselskullene i en seksårsperiode hvor vi kan følge dem, ser vi at for kvinner er det en markant økning i andelen som jobber fulltid, kohort for kohort. Dette ser ut til å være drevet av en høyere yrkesdeltakelse blant yngre fødselskull av kvinner. For menn er det ingen slike kohort-trender. Både deltidsarbeid og fulltidsarbeid er vanligere blant mødre enn blant barnløse kvinner, men disse forskjellene kan dels tilskrives aldersforskjeller mellom mødre og barnløse. De kan også dels skyldes ulik sammensetning av gruppene.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner (2024). Assessing theories and mechanisms in sociology: Insights from empirical studies on segregation, education, fertility, and class. Universitetet i Oslo. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  How can we assess theories and test theoretical mechanisms in sociology and the social sciences? This thesis presents five articles attempting to answer difficult sociological research questions using methods drawn from economics and behavior genetics, to assess theories and proposed mechanisms in the sociological research literature. These relate to the effects of segregated schools on native flight, the impact of local educational institutions on gender equality, social mobility and fertility patterns, and the role of genetic heritability in processes of class attainment. The articles represent a common approach to social science; critical rationalism, combined with the counterfactual approach to causality and causal inference, and a critical approach to theory.

• Brekke, Jan-Paul; Damsa, Dorina; Evertsen, Kathinka Fossum; Hansen, Vibeke Wøien; Liden, Hilde & Paasche, Erlend [Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2024). Tilrettelegging for integrering av flyktninger i Norge. Organisering, tiltak og erfaringer. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Hvordan kan norske myndigheter best legge til rette for integrering av flyktninger? De siste årene har norske kommuner måttet finne løsninger som passer til stadig nye grupper flyktninger. Denne studien viser hvor man lykkes godt og hvor det kan være behov for justeringer.

• Hoen, Maria Forthun; Reisel, Liza; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Salvanes, Kari Vea (2024). Ulik lønn for likt arbeid? Lønnsforskjeller mellom kvinner og menn, 2015–2022. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Lønnsforskjellene mellom kvinner og menn består. I perioden vi studerer (2015–2022), har den gjennomsnittlige forskjellen i timelønn ligget nesten uendret på rundt 13 prosent. En viktig forklaring er at kvinner og menn jobber i ulike deler av arbeidsmarkedet med ulikt lønnsnivå. Vi finner en lønnsforskjell på åtte prosent mellom kvinner og menn som utfører samme arbeid – altså som jobber i samme sektor, næring og yrke, har like lang utdanning og erfaring og samme hel-/deltidstilknytning. Sammenligner vi i tillegg like kvinner og menn med samme arbeidsgiver, er forskjellen seks prosent. En betydelig andel av lønnsgapet skyldes at mannsdominerte deler av arbeidsmarkedet ofte har høyere timelønn enn kvinnedominerte. Vi viser hvordan lønnsforskjellene varierer mellom ulike sektorer, næringer, utdanningsgrupper, yrkesgrupper og arbeidsmarkedsregioner. Vi finner at kvinner i gjennomsnitt har lengre utdanning enn menn, men innenfor fagfelt som gir lavere lønn. Lønnsgapet mellom kvinner og menn med like lang utdanning er derfor større enn blant alle kvinner og menn. Når vi ser på forklaringene på lønnsforskjellene, kan de deles i to. Godt over halvparten skyldes at kvinner og menn fordeler seg ulikt i arbeidsmarkedet og har ulik utdanningslengde, erfaring og hel-/deltidsarbeid. Resten skyldes at observerbart like kvinner og menn får ulik lønn. Ulik avlønning for de samme kjennetegnene kan imidlertid også skyldes forskjeller i kjennetegn som ikke er med i modellen vår. Vi finner at lønnsforskjellene gradvis øker med alder, og at lønnsgapet er større blant personer med barn enn uten barn. Lønnsforskjellen mellom mødre og fedre er rundt tre ganger så stor (11–12 prosent) som mellom kvinner og menn uten barn (3–4 prosent). Lønnsgapet blant foreldre er like stort blant dem med større barn som med små barn, og det øker med antall barn. Til slutt undersøker vi mulighetene for å måle lønnsforskjellene mellom kvinner og menn som utfører arbeid av lik verdi. Vi diskuterer og begrunner mulige metoder for å måle verdien til et arbeid, basert på kjennetegn ved yrker, føringer i nasjonalt og internasjonalt lovverk og forsøk i andre land. Vi bruker sentrale, objektive og generelle yrkeskjennetegn, og kombinerer dem til de fem hovedfaktorene kompetanse, ansvar, psykiske belastninger, fysiske anstrengelser og fysisk krevende arbeidsforhold. Hvert yrke får en skår (tallverdi) på hver faktor som dermed definerer yrkets relative verdi. Deretter lager vi grupper av likeverdige yrker basert på faktorskårene. Vi finner betydelige lønnsforskjeller mellom likeverdige kvinnedominerte og mannsdominerte yrker – større enn mellom kvinner og menn som utfører samme arbeid. Lønnsforskjellene ligger veldig nær estimater fra andre land, blant annet Sverige (Harrisman, Johansson, & Trollvik, 2023). Det er imidlertid en rekke utfordringer med å måle lønnsforskjeller for arbeid av lik verdi, blant annet fordi det innebærer å ta valg som dels er av normativ og ideologisk karakter. Vi diskuterer disse utfordringene og illustrerer hvor følsomme målene på lønnsforskjellene er for ulike definisjoner og ulik vekting av de fem hovedfaktorene. Vi er derfor varsomme med å komme med et fasitsvar på hvordan arbeid av lik verdi bør måles, og hva som er lønnsforskjellen mellom kvinner og menn som utfører arbeid av lik verdi.

• Dommermuth, Lars; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Syse, Astri (2022). The cash-for-care reform and immigrant fertility. Fewer babies of poorer families? Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Cash-for care policies are contested in many contexts, as they represent an incentive for childrearing over work that may reduce labour market participation, especially among immigrant women. From 1 July 2017, immigrants (both the mother and the father) from outside the European Economic Area must have at least 5 years of residence in Norway to be entitled to cash-for-care benefits. Previous research indicates that this reform did not lead to increased labour market participation of mothers and fathers treated by the reform. In this article, we examine whether the changes in the cash-forcare benefits policy have resulted in a substantive change in income and if the reform had an impact on the childbearing behaviour among those affected by the reform. Our descriptive analyses indicate no change in employment rates and household income. To detect possible changes in fertility, we employ a Difference-in-Difference approach, in which we compare the treatment group with four comparison groups. Overall, we find no substantial effect of the cash-for-care reform on childbearing behaviour.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner & Syse, Astri (2017). Framtidens eldre i by og bygd. Befolkningsframskrivinger, sosiodemografiske mønstre og helse. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Hvordan er den eldre befolkningen i Norge om 20-25 år fram i tid? Har de god eller dårlig helse, hvor bor de, hva slags utdanning har de? Dette og flere områder er beskrevet i en ny forskningsrapport. Rapporten beskriver den geografiske fordelingen og variasjonen i den eldre befolkningen i dag, og gjør antakelser om hvordan dette kan tenkes å utvikle seg framover mot 2040. Antakelsene er basert på observerte trender, hovedsakelig fra de siste ti år, og Statistisk sentralbyrås befolkningsframskrivinger. Dersom framskrivingen viser seg å reflektere den faktiske utviklingen kan dette få konsekvenser for kommunens ressurstilgang og -behov. Ressurssterke eldre med høy utdanning Analysene viser at etter hvert som yngre generasjoner trer inn i de eldres rekker, vil utdanningsnivået blant eldre øke. Utdanning er en god indikator på hvor ressurssterk man er, vi kan derfor forvente en klart mer ressurssterk eldre befolkning i framtiden. Dette kan innebære at framtidens eldre kan komme til å være mer selvstendige og i bedre stand til å håndtere enkelte utfordringer i hverdagen. Eldre har i gjennomsnitt bedre økonomi enn yngre mennesker, men det er mer usikkert om disse forskjellene vil vedvare. De eldres økonomiske ressurser vil også trolig være ujevnt fordelt i landet, med de implikasjonene det kan tenkes å få for framtidige eldres økonomiske handlingsrom. Flere sykdommer, men takler sykdom bedre Hvordan eldre har det i framtiden vil avhenge mye av utviklingen i helsen deres. Rapporten skisserer tre mulige framtidsscenarioer. Basert på utviklingen i helsen de siste ti årene kan se ut til at eldre til nå ikke har fått færre år med sykdommer enn før – kanskje snarere flere. Likevel ser det ut til at de klarer seg bedre med disse sykdommene enn tidligere. Dette kan henge sammen med bedre medisinsk behandling, bedrede fysiske omgivelser og teknologi som tilrettelegger for at eldre kan klare seg selv, og at eldre i dag har mer utdanning enn eldre hadde før i tiden. Store geografiske forskjeller i antall eldre Rapporten viser hvordan enkelte geografiske områder kan få en relativt beskjeden vekst i andelen eldre framover, og således være i en fordelaktig situasjon med hensyn til viktige sosiodemografiske kjennetegn i befolkningen, som utdanning, inntekt, gjeld, formue, innvandringskjennetegn, familiesituasjon og helse. Andre områder vil derimot kunne få en større økning i andelen eldre, og situasjonen på disse områdene kan by på utfordringer for kommunene. Rapporten er laget av Statistisk sentralbyrå på oppdrag fra Helse- og omsorgsdepartementet.

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• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Larsen, Edvard Nergård; Grødem, Anne Skevik & Kitterød, Ragni Hege (2026). Too old for the job? Two preregistered experiments on age bias in hiring. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Larsen, Edvard Nergård; Grødem, Anne Skevik & Kitterød, Ragni Hege (2025). Alder ingen hindring? To forhåndsregistrerte eksperimenter om aldersdiskriminering. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Reisel, Liza; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Seehuus, Sara (2025). Gender and long-term trends in educational attainment, income and returns to education in Norway. SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/q5cb8_v1. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This study addresses the economic returns to education among men and women in Norway, during five decades of changing and widening gender disparities in educational attainment. We ask how gender differences in educational attainment and returns have contributed to change and persistence in the gender income gap, and whether young men have started trailing behind due to women’s relative gains in higher education. While rising real incomes have contributed to a narrowing relative income gap, the absolute gap has decreased more slowly. In the past decade, both real incomes and the gender income gap have stagnated. Our results show that while both men and women in Norway have increased their education levels, women’s gains have been mainly in higher education, while men’s gains have disproportionately been in vocational upper secondary education. Contrary to the situation in the US and other liberal market economies, income growth among men with vocational education in Norway has recently outpaced every other group, resulting in a decreasing college premium, particularly among men. Women’s relative gains in higher education are partly offset by their lower incomes at all education levels, and the relatively strong income growth among men with vocational degrees. Decomposition analyses confirm these patterns.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Knutsen, Tora Kjærnes & Modalsli, Jørgen (2025). A college on every cape: Gender equality, gender segregation and local college openings. SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/xej64. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The expansion of higher educational systems in Western countries in the latter half of the 20th century is central to the reversal of the gender gap in education. In Norway, major reforms starting in the late 1960s aimed at making higher education more accessible for large segments of the population. This occurred through the establishment, upgrading, and gradual expansion of local colleges across the country, especially in female-dominated fields associated with work in expanding welfare sectors. Previous research has suggested that the gendered profile of educational expansions contributed to the cementing of horizontal gender segregation patterns in education and the labor market. We shed light on these processes using new and detailed data on the establishment and upgrading of higher educational institutions between 1969 and 1993. Linking these to individual-level register data, we study how regional variation in educational opportunities affected the educational attainment and field of study choices of young women and men, using an event study approach. While increased access to college education was a prerequisite for the reversal of the gender gap, our results suggest that the location of colleges had, at most, a very modest impact on local educational attainment and gendered field of study choices.

• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Fauske, Agnes & Hart, Rannveig Kaldager (2025). Educational expansions and fertility: Evidence from Norwegian college reforms. SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/dkt8a. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Reisel, Liza; Rogne, Adrian Farner; Salvanes, Kari Vea & Seehuus, Sara Marie Jorunn (2024). Are Gender Gaps in Education Leaving Less Educated Men Behind in the Labor Market? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Borgen, Solveig Topstad & Nordrum, Erlend Ingridsønn (2024). School Segregation and Native Flight. Evidence from School Catchment Area Borders. SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/xykdg. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Hoen, Maria Forthun; Reisel, Liza; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Salvanes, Kari Vea (2024). Hva er lønnsforskjellene mellom kvinner og menn? Tallenes tale er uklar. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rogne, Adrian Farner & Frisli, Siri (2024). Educational expansion reforms and intergenerational educational mobility in Norway. SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/athxq. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Hootegem, Arno Van; Rogne, Adrian Farner; Cros, Caroline Tveter; Røgeberg, Ole Jørgen & Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde (2024). Social origins and socioeconomic outcomes: A combined twin and adoption study. SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/y65ux. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Hootegem, Arno Van; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde (2023). Heritability of Class: Implications for Theory and Research on Social Mobility. SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/mncet. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Dommermuth, Lars; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Syse, Astri (2022). Botidskrav i kontantstøtteordningen ser ikke ut til å ha påvirket fødselstallene blant innvandrere. SSB analyse. 2022(7). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Hermansen, Are Skeie; Hundebo, Pål Oskar; Wessel, Terje; Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde & Birkelund, Gunn Elisabeth (2022). Finnes det “svenske tilstander” i Norge? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gleditsch, Rebecca Folkman; Rogne, Adrian Farner; Syse, Astri & Thomas, Michael J. (2021). The accuracy of Statistics Norway’s national population projections. Discussion Papers. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rogne, Adrian Farner; Pedersen, Willy & Bakken, Anders (2019). Innvandring har gitt mindre ungdomsfyll. s. 37–37. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Larsen, Edvard Nergård; Rogne, Adrian Farner & Birkelund, Gunn Elisabeth (2018). Perfect for the Job? Overqualification of Immigrants and their Descendants in the Norwegian Labor Market. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde; Rogne, Adrian Farner; Birkelund, Gunn Elisabeth; Hermansen, Are Skeie & Skardhamar, Torbjørn (2018). Ethnic Neighborhood Segregation and Residential Mobility Dynamics: Evidence from Norwegian administrative registers 1993-2013. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Syse, Astri & Rogne, Adrian Farner (2018). Man dør ikke av å pensjonere seg. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rogne, Adrian Farner (2016). Hvor godt treffer befolkningsframskrivingene? Økonomiske analyser. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rogne, Adrian Farner & Tønnessen, Marianne (2014). Hvor godt treffer befolkningsframskrivingene for kommunene? Økonomiske analyser. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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