Norwegian
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Completed project
European Strains
Project Information
This project aimed to understand:
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The current crisis in Europe and its institutional responses, stressing the interaction between politics, economic development, and social change
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The European migration, mobility, and economic growth in the light of national identities, and social and economic strains
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The economic and political feasibility of the European Social Model emphasizing how temporary shocks may create permanent institutional changes once we incorporate economic, social, and political relations
Further information:
Participants
Publications
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Barth, Erling; Finseraas, Henning; Kjelsrud, Anders & Moene, Karl Ove (Kalle)
(2023).
Openness and the welfare state: risk and income effects in protection without protectionism.
European Journal of Political Economy.
79.
doi:
10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102405.
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Have recent trends in globalization changed the positive link between trade openness and social insurance? The consensus view – that voters want better social insurance against income loss the more open the economy – is seemingly contested by the rise of new right-wing parties and the China shock. We present a theoretical framework of risk and income effects of globalization that captures the conventional view, but also shows when it will be modified: When the income effect is negative, the political support for social insurance can decline in spite of the risk effect. We construct an empirical measure of welfare state support across European regions and leverage the rapid integration of China into the world economy to show that higher import competition reduces the support for social insurance. Consistent with our framework, we use variations in employment losses between regions to decompose the overall effect of the shock into a (weak) positive risk effect and a (strong) negative income effect.
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Alpino, Matteo & Mehlum, Halvor
(2022).
Two notions of social capital.
The Journal of mathematical sociology.
p. 1–28.
doi:
10.1080/0022250X.2021.2004597.
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We propose a model that reconciles two aspects of social capital: social capital as reciprocal sharing of favors within a selected group vs. social capital as trust that lubricates transactions in societies. The core assumption is that individuals have productive potentials, e.g., innovations, that can not be put at use autonomously. However, individuals can associate in a club to match productive innovator-implementor dyads among the members. For a given club, allowing one new member has the effect of a) an increased pool of innovations and b) an increased pool of potential implementers. Whether a particular member supports the expansion of the club depends on whether she expects to be an implementor or an innovator. When expansion of membership is decided by vote, both small exclusive clubs and open clubs encompassing the whole society can emerge. The outcome depends both on the voting protocol, on the distribution of innovator and implementer skills, and on the maximal potential club size. Moreover, identical environments may generate multiple equilibrium club sizes. In which of these the society ends up depends on the initial conditions and on the voting protocol.
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Barth, Erling; Finseraas, Henning; Kjelsrud, Anders & Moene, Karl Ove
(2022).
Hit by the Silk Road: how wage coordination in Europe mitigates the China shock.
The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
doi:
10.1111/sjoe.12489.
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Coordination in collective wage setting can constrain potential monopoly gains to unions in non-traded-goods industries. Countries with national wage coordination can thus stabilize overall employment against fluctuations and shocks in the world economy. We test this argument by exploring within-country variation in exposure to competition from China in 13 European countries. Our estimates demonstrate that in countries with uncoordinated wage setting, regions with higher import exposure from China experienced a marked fall in employment, while countries with wage-coordination experienced no such employment effects. We show that our findings are robust to alternative measures of wage coordination, industry classifications, and trade exposure.
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Barth, Erling; Moene, Karl Ove (Kalle) & Pedersen, Axel West
(2021).
Rising Inequality in the Egalitarian Nordics.
In Fischer, Georg & Strauss, Robert (Ed.),
Europe's Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality.
Oxford University Press.
p. 219–246.
doi:
10.1093/oso/9780197545706.003.0006.
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The chapter demonstrates that while the Nordic countries remain relatively affluent and egalitarian, inequality of disposable household income has been on the rise over the past 30 years. The increase in income inequality and relative income poverty has been strongest in Sweden and more modest in the three other countries. In Sweden, and, to a lesser extent, in Finland and Denmark, a reduced role for social transfers among the working age population has contributed to a decline in relative income levels enjoyed by the bottom quintile. Often in the wake of serious macro-economic downturns, politicians have reduced the generosity of social transfers to improve labour market incentives. Even if these reforms have had the intended effect on employment, the increase in earnings has not been sufficient to replace the loss of social transfers.
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Chang, Yongsung; Hong, Jay H.; Karabarbounis, Marios; Wang, Yicheng & Zhang, Tao
(2021).
Income volatility and portfolio choices.
Review of economic dynamics.
44,
p. 65–90.
doi:
10.1016/j.red.2021.04.004.
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Based on administrative data from Statistics Norway, we find economically significant shifts in households’ financial portfolios around individual structural breaks in labor-income volatility. According to our estimates, when income risk doubles, households reduce their risky share of financial assets by 5 percentage points, thus tempering their overall risk exposure. We show that our estimated risky share response is consistent with a standard portfolio choice model augmented with idiosyncratic, time-varying income volatility.
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Marginson, Paul & Dølvik, Jon Erik
(2020).
Northern European Collective Wage Bargaining in the Face of Major Political-Economic Challenges: Common and Differing Trajectories.
Transfer - European Review of Labour and Research.
26(4),
p. 383–398.
doi:
10.1177/1024258920937961.
Full text in Research Archive
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Bratsberg, Bernt; Dawes, Christopher; Kotsadam, Andreas; Lindgren, Karl-Oskar; Öhrvall, Richard & Oskarsson, Sven
[Show all 7 contributors for this article]
(2020).
Birth Order and Voter Turnout.
British Journal of Political Science.
doi:
10.1017/S0007123419000826.
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Previous studies have stressed the role of a child's family environment for future political participation. This field of research has, however, overlooked that children within the same family have different experiences depending on their birth order. First-borns spend their first years of life without having to compete over their parents' attention and resources, while their younger siblings are born into potential rivalry. We examine differences in turnout depending on birth order, using unique population-wide individual level register data from Sweden and Norway that enables precise within-family estimates. We consistently find that higher birth order entails lower turnout, and that the turnout differential with respect to birth order is stronger when turnout is lower. The link between birth order and turnout holds when we use data from four other, non-Nordic countries. This birth order effect appears to be partly mediated by socio-economic position and attitudinal predispositions.
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Bratsberg, Bernt; Røed, Knut & Raaum, Oddbjørn
(2020).
Excess Churn in Integrated Labor Markets.
Journal of Population Economics.
doi:
10.1007/s00148-020-00795-1.
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The 2004 and 2007 enlargements of the EU Single Market gave western European firms a new source of labor consisting of foreign workers willing to work for pay below that of native workers. As a job in one of Europe’s high-income countries also entails coverage in a more generous welfare and social insurance system, the migrant reservation wage may lie below the opportunity cost of their labor. This represents an externality: Employers and migrant workers can pass some of the remuneration cost onto the welfare state, and have an incentive to agree on a lower wage the higher is the expected payoff from future welfare state transfers. Once employment is obtained – and welfare state entitlements secured – the reservation wage of migrant labor is likely to rise. The firm will in turn have an incentive to replace existing migrant employees with new migrant workers willing to accept lower pay. This paper studies empirically the turnover of employees in Norwegian private-sector firms, and shows how turnover relates to the firm’s share of migrant labor. We identify what we label excess churn as labor reallocation within firms that involves the simultaneous flow from employment to unemployment insurance and hiring of similar replacement workers. We find that there is more excess churn in firms with a higher fraction of migrant workers from the new EU countries.
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Hoen, Maria Forthun
(2020).
Immigration and the Tower of Babel: Using language barriers to identify individual labor market effects of immigration.
Labour Economics.
65.
doi:
10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101834.
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This paper introduces a novel approach to estimating immigration impacts on natives’ labor market outcomes. Differential language requirements across occupations serve as an arguably exogenous source of variation during the large and sudden immigration surge to Norway after the enlargements of the European labor market in 2004 and 2007. Migrant inflow into occupations is instrumented with occupations’ required level of (Norwegian) language skills. Administrative register data allow for a rich set of individual-level outcomes. Comparing workers in occupations with different language requirements, I find that a one percentage point increase in the share of Eastern European workers reduced native workers’ labor earnings by 0.75 percent. I further find adverse employment effects and evidence of skill-upgrading, but largely no other form of worker mobility among treated individuals. In particular, young woŕkers were hit in the wage dimension and old workers in the employment dimension. The results are highly robust.
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Bratsberg, Bernt; Raaum, Oddbjørn & Røed, Knut
(2019).
Social Insurance Design and the Economic Integration
of Immigrants.
In Calmfors, Lars & Gassen, Nora Sánchez (Ed.),
Integrating immigrants into the Nordic labour markets.
Nordisk ministerråd.
p. 133–158.
doi:
10.6027/Nord2019-024.
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Social insurance design balances equality and social security against moral hazard. We
discuss whether the optimal balance is influenced by immigration and point to two potential reasons. First, immigrant labour supply might be particularly sensitive to social
insurance parameters. Second, social insurance generosity may directly impact migrant
inflows. We provide evidence for both mechanisms. Still, we do not find that such evidence defends reduced social insurance generosity or tighter regulations on migration.
Instead, we call for a more activity-oriented social insurance policy. Activation requirements in the Norwegian social assistance programme seem to reduce immigrant welfare dependency and raise immigrant employment.
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Bratsberg, Bernt; Raaum, Oddbjørn & Røed, Knut
(2018).
Job Loss and Immigrant Labour Market Performance.
Economica.
85(337),
p. 124–151.
doi:
10.1111/ecca.12244.
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While integration policies typically focus on labour market entry, we present evidence showing that immigrants from low-income countries tend to have more precarious jobs, and face more severe consequences of job loss, than natives. For immigrant workers in the Norwegian private sector, the probability of job loss in the near future is more than twice that of native workers. Using corporate bankruptcy filings for identification, we find that the adverse effects of job loss on future employment and earnings are twice as large for immigrant employees from low-income source countries.
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Brochmann, Grete & Dølvik, Jon Erik
(2018).
The welfares state and international migration. The European challenge.
In Greve, Bent (Eds.),
Routledge Handbook of the Welfare State, Second Edition.
Routledge.
p. 508–521.
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The chapter gives an overview of the main issues related to the situation of adult persons with disabilities in society. This includes key concepts, perspectives and empirical facts related to the diverse life courses of persons with disabilities, and the main types of efforts by various actors, including disabled people themselves, to achieve social recognition, equal participation and the legal and material conditions for independent living and personal fulfilment for persons with disabilities.
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Dølvik, Jon Erik & Marginson, Paul
(2018).
Cross-sectoral coordination and regulation of wage determination in northern Europe: Divergent responses to multiple external pressures.
European journal of industrial relations.
doi:
10.1177/0959680118790820.
Full text in Research Archive
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Müller, Torsten; Dølvik, Jon Erik; Ibsen, Christian Lyhne & Schulten, Thorsten
(2018).
The manufacturing sector: Still an anchor for pattern bargaining within and across countries?
European journal of industrial relations.
24(4),
p. 357–372.
doi:
10.1177/0959680118790817.
Full text in Research Archive
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Dølvik, Jon Erik & Marginson, Paul
(2018).
Guest Editors Special Issue of European Industrial Relations
Vol 24, Issue 4 p.319-425, Collective Wage Regulation in Northern Europe under Strain.
European journal of industrial relations.
24(4),
p. 319–425.
doi:
10.1177/0959680118790820.
Full text in Research Archive
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Brekke, Jan-Paul & Staver, Anne Balke
(2018).
The renationalisation of migration policies in times
of crisis: the case of Norway.
Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies.
44(13),
p. 2163–2181.
doi:
10.1080/1369183X.2018.1433026.
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ABSTRACT
Securing collective action in the field of asylum regulation is high on the European political agenda. In this article, we look at one country’s partial pullback from the regional cooperation during the high influx of asylum seekers in 2015. We use Norway as a
case to analyse the challenges to common European asylum
regulations and the drivers of a region-wide tendency of what we call renationalisation. Against this background, we seek to contribute to the discussion on the dynamics of Europeanisation and the future of the Common European Asylum System. While the Europeanisation of migration policies has been well covered in the literature, tendencies of renationalisation have been less so.
To contribute to the knowledge base, we create a typology of the drivers of renationalisation. These drivers include necessary political and institutional preconditions, resource limitations, triggers, expectations and aspects of time.
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Barth, Erling; Davis, James Creece; Freeman, Richard & Kerr, Sari Pekkala
(2017).
Weathering the Great Recession: Variation in Employment Responses, by Establishments and Countries.
The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences.
3(3),
p. 50–69.
doi:
10.7758/rsf.2017.3.3.03.
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This paper finds that U.S. employment changed differently relative to output in the Great Recession and recovery
than in most other advanced countries or in the United States in earlier recessions. Instead of hoarding
labor, U.S. firms reduced employment proportionately more than output in the Great Recession, with
establishments that survived the downturn contracting jobs massively. Diverging from the aggregate pattern,
U.S. manufacturers reduced employment less than output while the elasticity of employment to gross
output varied widely among establishments. In the recovery, growth of employment was dominated by job
creation in new establishments. The variegated responses of employment to output challenges extant models
of how enterprises adjust employment over the business cycle
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
Migrasjonskrisen: Høyreradikale responser.
Internasjonal Politikk.
74(2),
p. 1–9.
doi:
10.17585/ip.v74.457.
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Over en million asylsøkere ankom Europa i 2015, mer enn det dobbelte fra det foregående år.1 En av de mange og sammensatte årsakene til økningen er de langvarige konfliktene i Midtøsten, Nord-Afrika og Sentral-Asia.2 Spesielt i Syria har den brutale borgerkrigen siden 2011 ført til forskyvning av sivilbefolkningen i stor skala. Hovedproblemet i Europa er den ulike distribusjonen av asylsøkere blant EU-medlemsland og en ukoordinert respons på en av de verste humanitære krisene siden andre verdenskrig. Land som Tyskland og Sverige har mottatt et stort antall asylsøkere mens flere østeuropeiske land har avvist det fransk-tyske kvoteforslaget som fordeler byrden blant medlemsland. Fra å være vennlig innstilte og berørt av medierte bilder, har europeere flest blitt mer kritiske til immigrasjon (Europaparlamentet 2015). Mangfoldet av politiske responser og intensiteten av følelser rundt krisen vitner om polarisering av europeisk politikk. Denne artikkelen analyserer høyrepopulistiske og høyreradikale responser på tvungen migrasjon3 til Europa med et særskilt fokus på Ungarn og Tyskland. Dette er to land som representerer ytterpunkter i Europas politiske håndtering av migrasjonskrisen. Diskurser hvor kategorien «migrant fra muslimske land» blir presentert som en fiende av nasjonen kommer til uttrykk både i høyreradikale partier, borgerverngrupper og anti-Islam-bevegelser som Pegida, men har også beveget seg fra den politiske ytterkanten til mainstream. Behovet for grensekontroll blir rammet inn som en eksistensiell kamp hvor det siviliserte, kristne Europa må beskytte seg mot det usiviliserte muslimske Østen.
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Brekke, Jan-Paul; Røed, Marianne & Schøne, Pål
(2016).
Reduction or deflection? The effect of asylum policy on interconnected asylum flows.
Migration Studies.
5(1),
p. 65–96.
doi:
10.1093/migration/mnw028.
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In 2015 Europe experienced an almost unprecedented number of asylum arrivals. The result was a revitalization of both the political and academic debates on the relationship between asylum policies and arrivals. In this article we study the core of this debate, namely the effects of asylum policy on asylum flows. We examine what recent European history of asylum regimes and arrivals tells us. The policy changes are examined both with regard to their direct effect on the flows to the country that made the changes, and with regard to their impact on the inflows to other countries. Finally, we analyze the policy effect on the total outflow from the sending countries. The findings clearly suggest that both a direct effect and a deflection effect are at work. The results also indicate that stricter asylum policies in the destination clusters reduce the total outflow of asylum seekers.
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Barth, Erling; Finseraas, Henning; Kjelsrud, Anders Grøn & Moene, Karl Ove (Kalle)
(2021).
Does the Rise of China Lead to the Fall of European Welfare States?
IZA Institute of Labor Economics.
Full text in Research Archive
Show summary
Have recent trends in globalization changed the positive link between trade openness and social insurance? The consensus view - that voters want better social insurance against income loss the more open the economy - is seemingly contested by the rise of populism and the China shock. We present a theoretical framework of risk and income effects of globalization that captures the conventional view, but also shows when it will be modified:
When the income effect is negative, the political support for social insurance can decline in spite of the risk effect. We construct an empirical measure of welfare state support across European regions and leverage the rapid integration of China into the world economy to show that higher import competition reduces the support for social insurance. Consistent with our framework, we decompose the overall effect of the shock into a (weak) positive risk effect and a (strong) negative income effect
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Barth, Erling; Finseraas, Henning; Kjelsrud, Anders Grøn & Moene, Karl Ove (Kalle)
(2020).
Hit by the Silk Road: How Wage Coordination in Europe Mitigates the China Shock.
IZA – Institute of Labor Economics.
Full text in Research Archive
View all works in NVA
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Ulltveit-Moe, Karen Helene; Moxnes, Andreas; Raaum, Oddbjørn & Bratsberg, Bernt
(2017).
Opening the floodgates: Immigration and structural change.
Full text in Research Archive
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Ulltveit-Moe, Karen Helene
(2017).
Diskusjon om Theresa Mays kunngjøring om hard Brexit.
[Radio].
Dagsnytt 18, NRK.
Full text in Research Archive
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
The borders of hospitality: selecting kin and enemies in times of protracted displacement.
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
Radicalisation in response to the refugee crisis and consequences for prevention policies.
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
The migration crisis in Europe: radicalisation and implications for CVE Communications.
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
Korleis preger 1956 dagens Ungarn? Høgre og venstresida fortel sine versjonar av oppstanden i Ungarn.
[Radio].
NRK P2 Ekko.
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
Hegraseminaret- Midtøsten i krise og folkevandringene mot Europa.
[Journal].
Stjørdalsnytt.
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
Gamle og nye fiendebilder: nasjonalisme som respons på tvungen migrasjon til Europa.
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
Nationalist responses to forced migration: case studies from England and Hungary.
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
Samtale med forskar Cathrine Moe Thorleifsson.
[TV].
NRK2.
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Show summary
Økonomiske kriser og folkevandringar både internt i Europa , men og frå utsida av kontinentet har ført til sterke nasjonalistiske responsar rundt om i heile Europa. Grenser blir stengde, høgreradikale parti veks fram i mange land og nasjonane kranglar om flykningekvotar og fri flyt av arbeidskraft. Kva tenker folk på gata om sin eigen situasjon, i England og i Ungarn? Vi møter sosialantropologen Cathrine Moe Thorleifsson i samtale med forskingsjournalist Olav Høgetveit. (5:5)
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
Impact of the current migrant crisis on Europe and the world: Challenges and future scenarios related to extremism, polarisation and terror attacks.
Full text in Research Archive
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
Våpenglad nasjonalist kan bli Østerrikes nye president.
[Journal].
Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.).
Full text in Research Archive
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Thorleifsson, Cathrine Moe
(2016).
Europa mot høyre.
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Oppslutningen om høyreekstreme og høyrepopulistiske partier øker i Europa.
I mange land erobrer det som tidligere var små nisjepartier langt ute på høyresiden plass i nasjonalforsamlinger og regjeringer. Jobbik i Ungarn, Gyllent Daggry i Hellas, Frihetspartiet i Nederland og Sverigedemokratene i vårt naboland. Hva er det egentlig som skjer? Dreier folkeopinionen mot høyre? Blir politikken mer ekstrem i begge retninger? Eller er det fløypartiene som tilpasser seg for å fange opp en stadig mer misfornøyd velgermasse?
I panelet som skal oppklare dette for oss, sitter:
Cathrine Thorleifsson, Postdoktor
Sosialantropologisk Institutt og C-REX – Senter for ekstremismeforskning
Jacob Aasland Ravndal, stipendiat ved Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt og C-REX – Senter for ekstremismeforskning
Sindre Bangstad, forsker ved KIFO (Institutt for kirke- , religions- og livssynsforskning), med rasisme og islamofobi som spesialfelt
Moderator er Ingrid Brekke, Aftenposten
Arrangementet er et samarbeid mellom Nobels Fredssenter og C-REX Senter for ekstremismeforskning ved Universitetet I Oslo.
Debatten er gratis og åpen for alle.
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Research topics:
labour market,
migration and integration
Published
Aug. 19, 2014 10:09 AM
- Last modified
June 10, 2026 12:21 PM
