Om Valgforskningsprogrammet

• Segaard, Signe Bock & Shamshiri-Petersen, Ditte (2024). Politisk tvivl og det svære valg: De tvivlende vælgeres fortællinger. I Hansen, Kasper Møller & Stubager, Rune (Red.), Partiledernes kamp om midten. Folketingsvalget 2022. DJØF Forlag. Vis sammendrag

  Kapitlet giver et kvalitativt indblik i vælgernes politiske tvivl. Gennem en narrativ analyse af åbne valgdagbøger ført i appen “Min Valgdagbog” under valgkampen, ses der på, hvad tvivlen er forankret i, samt hvilke strategier vælgerne følger for at håndtere den og nå frem til en beslutning om, hvor krydset skal sættes. Analysen viser, at politisk tvivl er kompleks og dynamisk. Den politiske tvivl kan på den ene side skabe frustration i form af en følelse af krydspres, politisk hjemløshed, politikerlede, valgtræthed eller tyngden af valgets byrde. På den anden side kan politisk tvivl også anspore til refleksion over politiske emner, aktører og stemmeafgivelsen for netop at imødekomme den politiske frustration. De reflekterende tvivlere anvender således forskellige beslutningsstrategier med afsæt i enighed eller uenighed – eller en hensigt om at bekræfte eller udelukke beslutningsalternativer.

• Saglie, Jo (2023). Sentrum-periferi - en skillelinje i endring? I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 276–304.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Bergh, Johannes (2023). Explaining the Surge of the Populist Radical Right: A Time-Series Analysis of the Effects of Immigration and the Economy in Norway . Political Behavior. doi: 10.1007/s11109-023-09887-6. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Populist radical right parties have become major forces in most Western democracies. Previous research has provided conflicting evidence on whether their electoral support can be explained by two structural developments: economic decline and increased immigration. Using time-series regression and almost 30 years of aggregated monthly polling data, we perform a novel test of the effects of economic decline and immigration on aggregate support for the Norwegian Progress Party. We find that the most beneficial time-periods for this party seem to be those of rising immigration and a booming economy. However, our findings also suggest that the effect of rising immigration is halted when the party holds government office. Thus, voter mobilization based on anti-immigration messages may represent a challenge for the Norwegian Progress Party and potentially other such parties going forward as they may become victims of their own success.

• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2023). Konklusjon: Politikk i urolige tider. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 334–339.
• Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Holmås, Tor Helge (2023). Valgdeltakelse, forhåndsstemmegivning og familiens betydning for politisk deltakelse. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 229–246.
• Segaard, Signe Bock & Shamshiri-Petersen, Ditte (2023). Valgdagboken: Velgernes fortellinger om veien til det riktige partivalget. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 75–102.
• Winsvold, Marte Slagsvold; Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum; Saglie, Jo & Segaard, Signe Bock (2023). What makes people trust or distrust politicians? Insights from open-ended survey questions. West European Politics. 47(4), s. 759–783. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2023.2268459. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  High political trust is often interpreted as a sign of good democratic health, and widespread distrust as a sign of democratic ill health. However, there is little knowledge about the basis on which people make assessments about whether to trust or distrust political actors. This article develops and applies a typology for political trust judgement. Through a content analysis of 1,105 open-ended survey questions about political trust and distrust, the study finds that people tend to assess (dis)trust of politicians based on whether they see the politicians as predictable, intrinsically committed, competent and responsive. Moreover, the study finds that citizens use different judgement bases to describe trust and distrust, suggesting that the two concepts are not pure negations of each other. While predictability is the most frequently reported basis for trusting politicians, a lack of intrinsic commitment is the most frequently reported basis for distrusting politicians. This article discusses the reasons for and implications of the apparently different bases for weighing judgements on trust and distrust.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Linde, Jonas (2023). Hvilken type demokrati vil norske velgere ha? I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 180–203.
• Bergh, Johannes; Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Karlsen, Rune (2023). Stortingsvalget 2021: Velgerne går mot venstre. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 13–29.
• Aalberg, Toril; Karlsen, Rune & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2023). Kjønnsstereotypiske vurderinger av politisk kommunikasjon? I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 123–141.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum; Karlsen, Rune & Aalberg, Toril (2023). Nyhetsbruk og politisk kunnskap i valgkamp. I Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Red.), Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. s. 103–122.
• Arnesen, Sveinung; Christensen, Dag Arne & Finseraas, Henning (2023). Look to Denmark or not? An experimental study of the Social Democrats’ strategic choices. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 84. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102629. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Social Democratic parties struggle to maintain their strong electoral position, as political competition has shifted from the traditional left-right dimension to the cultural dimension. This has led to a debate on what would be the most viable electoral strategy for these parties in terms of adjusting their policies. Some propose a “New Left” policy platform that combines social investment and progressive cultural policies; others an “Old Left” policy platform that combines traditional redistribution policies and social-conservative cultural policies. We conducted a survey experiment to test the effects of these two platforms on support for the Norwegian Labour party. Our results show that the New Left platform is more popular among current Labour voters and voters from competing left-wing parties, and the two policy platforms are equally popular among the total electorate.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum; Karlsen, Rune & Steen-Johnsen, Kari (2023). Uninformed or Misinformed in the Digital News Environment? How Social Media News Use Affects Two Dimensions of Political Knowledge. Political Communication. doi: 10.1080/10584609.2023.2222070. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This article examines how the use of social media for news affects citizens’ knowledge about politics and current affairs. We employ a two-dimensional perspective on political knowledge and investigate how factual political knowledge, confidence in that knowledge, and misinformation, understood as the mismatch between factual political knowledge and confidence in knowledge, are related to social media news consumption. While earlier studies have suggested a negative relationship between social media news consumption and factual knowledge, there are indications that social media use may give people a general sense of being informed, even when they are not. Such general subjective knowledge might, however, differ from confidence in retrieved facts. Drawing on a two-wave panel study from Norway, we find evidence of a negative relationship between social media news consumption and both dimensions of knowledge. Notably, however, we do not find that social media news use leads to confidence in incorrect beliefs, suggesting that the digital media environment produces an uninformed, but not an overconfident, misinformed news audience.

• Aardal, Bernt Olav & Oscarsson, Henrik (2023). Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. Christian Democratic parties and religious voting. I Montero, José Ramon; Segatti, Paolo & Calvo, Kerman (Red.), Religious Voting in Western Democracies. Oxford University Press. s. 525–548. doi: 10.1093/oso/9780198807858.003.0019. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Segaard, Signe Bock & Shamshiri-Petersen, Ditte (2022). How to Collect Voters’ Perceptions of Election Campaigns? Examining Digital Platforms for Qualitative Diary Postings. Metode & Forskningsdesign. Vis sammendrag

  Diary postings are responses to real-world events, actors and processes that de facto exist and can be identified. This article explores the conditions of capturing voter behaviour and voters’ perceptions of election campaigns by methodologically testing innovative digital instruments for qualitative diary data collection (an app for mobile devices and a webform). We do this in light of three criteria: participant engagement, data relevance and participants’ personal involvement. Based on a real-world methodological experiment in the Fall of 2019 during the Norwegian local election campaign, we found that the app promotes more engagement as to frequency of diary postings, while the webform promoted more comprehensive postings. Concerning participants with different socio-demographic and political profiles, both platforms ensured data relevance in the sense that data match the concepts to be studied: voter behaviour and perception of election campaign. Moreover, both facilitated personal involvement and reflections. The article concludes with a reflection on the potential contribution of the diary method in election studies.

• Fladmoe, Audun & Bergh, Johannes (2022). The use of adjustment weights in voter surveys. Correcting for panel attrition and nonresponse can produce less accurate estimates of voting behavior. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 78. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102486. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Declining response rates make it harder to justify survey data as adequately representative. Adjustment weighting is often used to address this problem, but the premise of that approach is that people within a specific social category who respond to a survey are representative of those that do not. This paper compares selfreported voting in a low response panel survey and a “gold standard” national election survey, with the actual election result in the Norwegian parliamentary election in 2017, and estimate the effects of various inverse probability weights. The results indicate that the panel sample becomes less accurate in predicting the election result when weighted for age than without the use of such a weight. Young adults who respond to surveys may not be representative of this age group as a whole, especially in low response panel surveys.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle & Karlsen, Rune (2022). Election Campaigns, News Consumption Gaps, and Social Media: Equalizing Political News Use When It Matters? The International Journal of Press/Politics. doi: 10.1177/19401612221112014. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We investigate how inequalities in political media use develop throughout election campaigns, and in particular whether social media use helps counterbalance traditional news consumption gaps. Using a four-wave individual-level panel survey of the Norwegian 2017 national election campaign, we run a series of latent growth models to investigate whether differences in news consumption based on gender, age, education, and political interest increase or decrease during campaigns. We find that news consumption gaps are either stable or converge throughout the campaign. Importantly, social media provides political information to those groups that use traditional media channels the least and thereby reduce overall gaps in political media consumption. In this way, election campaigns, to some extent, equalize inequalities in political news consumption when it matters the most.

• Langsæther, Peter Egge; Goubin, Silke & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2022). Subverted expectations and social democratic austerity: How voters’ reactions to policies are conditional on the policy-implementing actor. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 80. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102529. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  It is well-established that voters care about policies when they go to the voting booth. However, we argue that voters' reaction to the policies are conditional on the actor implementing them. Voters have different expectations towards political parties regarding the policies they are expected to implement, and subverted expectations can have electoral consequences. This is particularly the case when they are related to issues central to the party's ideological agenda. We supply experimental evidence of this in the case of social-democratic austerity policies: Left-wing voters punish social democrats much more for implementing such policies than they punish a mainstream right party for the same actions. Our findings have important implications for several ongoing debates in the literature such as the demise of social democratic parties in the wake of the Great Recession, the interplay between parties and citizens, as well as the general effect of austerity on electoral outcomes.

• Aardal, Bernt & Bergh, Johannes (2022). The 2021 Norwegian election. West European Politics. s. 1522–1534. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2062136. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The Storting election of September 2021 signalled the end of eight years in office for of the centre-right government led by Premier Erna Solberg. During this period, different constellations of parties had been in power: first the Conservatives and the Progress Party, later the Liberal Party and finally the Christian Democrats joined the coalition. However, due to policy disagreements, particularly with the Liberals and the Christian Democrats, the Progress Party left the coalition in 2020, just a year ahead of the election. Climate and immigration policies were at the core of the disagreements. At the 2021 election, the five centre-left (or red-green) parties won the majority of seats and votes, but did not succeed in establishing a majority government. Instead, the Labour Party and the Centre Party formed a minority government, supported by the Socialist Left Party. The overriding issue at the election was climate and environmental concerns. Somewhat unexpectedly, the Green Party did not fare particularly well at the election, and fell short of the four percent threshold for adjustment seats by the tiniest margin. Data from the Norwegian National Election Study shows that the Greens only received 11 per cent of the climate vote, while more than 60 per cent voted for other red-green parties. Social inequality was also high on the agenda, in particular by left of centre voters. The number of effective parties rose from 5.5 to 6.4, increasing the fractionalisation of the party system, which may be worrying if it continues.

• Bergh, Johannes & Christensen, Dag Arne (2022). Getting out the vote in different electoral contexts: the effect of impersonal voter mobilization techniques in middle and high salience Norwegian elections. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. doi: 10.1080/17457289.2022.2051149. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This article reports on two sets of field experiments testing text messaging (SMS) among native Norwegian voters and live phone calls among young voters eligible to vote in their first election. The two sets of experiments are done in both local and national elections. Most previous studies of election salience and voter mobilization use data from countries with generally lower levels of turnout than in Northern Europe (including Norway). This article addresses how the effectiveness of voter mobilization varies by election salience, in a generally high-salience political context. We find the two experiments to be more effective in low/middle salience elections, with turnout around 60 percent, than in high salience elections with turnout higher than 75 percent.

• Skorge, Øyvind Søraas (2021). Mobilizing the Underrepresented: Electoral Systems and Gender Inequality in Political Participation. American Journal of Political Science (AJPS). s. 1–15. doi: 10.1111/ajps.12654. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  To study the political mobilization of underrepresented groups, this article examines the effect of electoral systems on gender equality in voting. Theoretically, I argue that replacing a plurality electoral system with proportional representation (PR) gives party elites greater incentives to mobilize women to vote in all but the most competitive districts under plurality rule. Yet, they need to tap into women's networks to succeed with such mobilizing efforts. Empirically, I isolate the causal effect of PR by studying an imposed shift from plurality to PR in Norwegian municipalities. Using a difference-in-differences design, I estimate that the move from plurality to PR substantially decreased gender inequality in voting. The effect is most pronounced in previously uncompetitive municipalities and where women's networks are present. This study thus demonstrates how the social environment conditions the effect of democratic institutions on the political participation of marginalized groups.

• Karlsen, Rune & Aalberg, Toril (2021). Social Media and Trust in News: An Experimental Study of the Effect of Facebook on News Story Credibility. Digital Journalism. 11(1), s. 144–160. doi: 10.1080/21670811.2021.1945938. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Arnesen, Sveinung; Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne & Aardal, Bernt (2021). Support for electoral system reform among voters and politicians: Studying information effects through survey experiments. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 71. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102313. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Does information about the consequences of proposals to change the Norwegian parliamentary electoral system influence voters’ and politicians’ attitudes towards the system? Is the willingness to accept change greater among voters/politicians who “lose” under the present electoral system? These questions are illuminated using empirical data from two identical survey experiments, with responses from both voters and politicians about 1) increased proportionality between parties (more seats for smaller parties) and 2) increased geographical proportionality (stronger representation for the more populous counties). The results show that being informed about the consequences of the proposals has a major effect on voters’ and politicians’ attitudes. This applies especially to the question of increased proportionality between parties, where feedback was particularly negative from respondents who were told that the proposal might weaken the larger parties’ representation and make it more difficult to establish viable governments. The responses to the question about increased proportionality between parties were also influenced by partisanship; politicians who belonged to or voters who voted for one of the smaller parties favour increased proportionality. We also find that there is limited support for the proposal to distribute parliamentary seats according to the number of inhabitants in the counties, and this support is further reduced when the respondents are informed that the measure will increase representation from the more populous parts of the country.

• Hesstvedt, Stine; Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2021). Kampen om dagsorden: et historisk tilbakeblikk på stortingsvalgene 1957–2017. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 62(3), s. 273–292. doi: 10.18261/ISSN.1504-291X-2021-03-04. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Valgkamper blir gjerne omtalt som en «kamp om dagsorden» (Valen, 1999). Hvilke saker som opptar velgerne, og hvorvidt politikere kan å overbevise velgere om at de har de beste politiske løsningene, er tett forbundet med valgresultatet. I et demokratisk perspektiv er det også avgjørende at partiene evner å presentere politiske løsninger på saksfelt som velgerne opplever som viktige for deres ve og vel (Dahl, 2000). Mens valgene i etterkrigsårene handlet om gjenreising etter krigen og utbygging av velferdsstaten, har store samfunnsendringer som velstandsvekst, utdanningseksplosjon, globalisering og innvandring presset frem nye stridsspørsmål og endret velgernes prioriteringer. Når vi på sensommeren i 2021 går inn i årets valgkamp, er bakteppet en lang periode med pandemi og unntakstilstand samt stor oppmerksomhet om distriktspolitikk og sentraliseringsreformer. Hvordan vil den se ut i forhold til andre valg? I denne forskningskommentaren setter vi årets valgkamp i en historisk kontekst ved å spørre: Hva har vært viktige saker for norske velgere siden andre verdenskrig? Kjennetegnes den norske dagsorden av stabilitet eller endringer fra valg til valg? Hvilke partier nyter tillit på saker som figurerer høyt på den politiske dagsorden, og hvordan endrer dette seg over tid? Det finnes få studier som har undersøkt velgernes dagsorden i norsk etterkrigstid sett under ett (men se Bjørklund, 2020). Ved hjelp av data fra stortingsvalgundersøkelsene identifiserer og diskuterer vi fire hovedtyper av saker som har opptatt velgere i Norge. Vi peker på de «glemte» sakene som har forsvunnet fra dagsorden over tid – som boligpolitikk og forsvarspolitikk; de «nye» sakene som har blitt viktigere i valgkampene i den senere tid, som innvandring og klima; og de «tidløse sakene» som har stått på dagsorden i mer eller mindre hele 60-årsperioden, som skattepolitikk og eldreomsorg. Vi tar også for oss en sak som har vært svært viktig for utviklingen i norsk politikk, men som er i en kategori for seg selv: spørsmålet om norsk medlemskap i Den europeiske union (EU). Til slutt undersøker vi velgernes tillit til partiene i disse sakene og studerer sakseierskap i de senere periodene (1997–2017), da spørsmål om best politikk på ulike politikkområder ble inkludert i valgundersøkelsen. Underveis diskuterer vi hva slags betydning dagsorden og sakseierskap har hatt for partienes oppslutning og stemmegivning. Til grunn for gjennomgangen ligger tverrsnittsdata fra stortingsvalgundersøkelsene for perioden 1957 til 2017. Helt siden 1957 har Valgforskningsprogrammet ved Institutt for samfunnsforskning, først i samarbeid med Norsk Gallup og siden 1977 i samarbeid med Statistisk sentralbyrå, stilt et landsrepresentativt utvalg av norske velgere spørsmål om hva som var de viktigste sakene for deres stemmegivning. I tillegg har prosjektet siden 1997 stilt spørsmål om sakseierskap – nemlig om hvilke partier velgerne mener har best politikk på enkelte saksfelt.

• Eichhorn, Jan & Bergh, Johannes (2021). Lowering the Voting Age to 16 in Practice: Processes and Outcomes Compared. Parliamentary Affairs. 74(3), s. 507–521. doi: 10.1093/pa/gsab019. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Research into the possible consequences of lowering the voting age to 16 used to be rather speculative in nature, as there were few countries that had implemented earlier enfranchisement. This has changed over the past decade. We now have a range of countries in different locations, mostly in Europe and South America, where 16- and 17-year-olds can vote in some or all elections. In many of those places empirical research has given us insights into the experiences of young people and the impact of those changes on political discussions. However, so far these studies have largely been conducted individually in each country, which makes comparisons difficult. This article summarises the key insights from empirical research across countries with lower voting ages. It identifies common patterns, but also highlights differences. Overall, the impact appears to not be negative and often positive in terms of political engagement and civic attitudes. However, the comprehensiveness of effects varies. The article offers some possible frameworks to understand differences, in particular by reflecting on the processes that led to voting franchise changes, but also indicates where gaps in knowledge remain, and what sort of research would be required to produce systematically comparable results.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle; Hesstvedt, Stine & Karlsen, Rune (2021). Increased media choice and political knowledge gaps: A comparative longitudinal study of 18 established democracies 1995-2015. Political Communication. 38(6), s. 731–750. doi: 10.1080/10584609.2020.1868633. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We investigate the often-stated, but disputed claim in the political science and political communication literature that increasing media choice widens inequalities in political knowledge. The assumption is that in a high-choice media environment, the politically interested will consume more news while the uninterested will avoid such content, leading, in turn, to widening differences in political knowledge. Although previous studies show that high media choice increases political knowledge gaps in the United States, comparative longitudinal evidence is currently lacking. To fill this gap, we draw on data from four rounds of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. Overall, we do not find general support for the high-choice knowledge gap thesis. In most countries, there is no indication that inequality in political knowledge has increased over time. Building on recent insights from political communication research, we question key assumptions of the high choice knowledge gap thesis.

• Hopmann, David Nicolas & Karlsen, Rune (2021). Elections and political communication in the Nordic countries. I Skogerbø, Eli; Ihlen, Øyvind; Kristensen, Nete Nørgaard & Nord, Lars W. (Red.), Power, communication, and politics in the Nordic countries. Nordicom. s. 219–240.
• Karlsen, Rune; Lütz, Georg & Öhberg, Patrik (2020). Candidate Campaigns in Comparative Perspective. I De Winter, Lieven; Karlsen, Rune & Schmitt, Hermann (Red.), Parliamentary Candidates Between Voters and Parties: A Comparative Perspective. Routledge. s. 78–96.

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• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (2023). Politikk i urolige tider. En studie av stortingsvalget 2021. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. 344 s.

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• Bergh, Johannes; Hesstvedt, Stine & Karlsen, Rune (2022). Dagsorden og sakseierskap ved stortingsvalget 2021. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Den politiske dagsorden og partienes troverdighet på de saksområdene som er på dagsorden er viktig for å forstå utfallet av et valg. Velgernes dagsorden referer til de sakene velgerne er opptatt av og som de mener er viktige for deres stemmegivning. Hvilke saker som dominerer velgernes dagsorden er sentralt fordi politiske partier har varierende troverdighet hos velgere på ulike saker. Dette refereres til, både i faglitteraturen og offentligheten, som partienes sakseierskap. Formålet med dette notatet er å presentere nye tall for dagsorden og sakseierskap ved stortingsvalget 2021.

• Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2020). Hvilken valgordning får flest velgere til å stemme? Om sammenhengen mellom valgordninger og valgdeltakelse. (Vedlegg til NOU 2020:6 "Frie og hemmelige valg : ny valglov"). Institutt for samfunnsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

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• Saglie, Jo (2024). Eldre og politisk representasjon.
• Rommetvedt, Hilmar; Saglie, Jo & Segaard, Signe Bock (2024). Coalition formation in Norwegian municipalities: national blocs or local variation?
• Segaard, Signe Bock & Shamshiri-Petersen, Ditte (2023). Cross-pressured voters: The issue of environment and climate in the wealthy oil nation of Norway . Vis sammendrag

  Climate & environment has constituted a dominating political issue in many elections all over Europe the last years. Green parties have mobilised new voters, and old parties have tried to adopt a greener profile. However, there is a trade-off between a progressive approach to green transition and climate change mitigation, and a traditional (both left wing and right wing) approach to welfare and economic issues. By applying the wealthy oil nation of Norway as an extreme case, this paper aims at shedding light on the political dilemma embedded in this trade-off, and on how it is perceived by voters. Is seems plausible that a substantial number of Norwegian voters hold ambivalent attitudes towards the green transition, as it is perceived incompatible with continued (oil-based) wealth and welfare, and thus find themselves in an attitudinal cross-pressure, as they want to favour both issues. The question to be put under investigation is how Norwegian voters reflect upon the dilemma and how the cross-pressured voters reconcile their conflicting attitudes. The questions are addressed by analysing voters’ qualitative and unsolicited election diaries, collected by the app “My Election Diary” throughout the 2021 Norwegian national election campaign. The diaries allow for gaining insight into voters’ authentic, unprompted reflections on climate & environment and welfare, which both were salient issues in the campaign. This in turn contributes with a more nuanced picture of the cross-pressured and ambivalent voter

• Saglie, Jo (2023). Sentrum-periferi: en skillelinje i endring?
• Segaard, Signe Bock (2023). Signe Bock Segaard: Valgdeltagelse og tilgjengelighet: Har Norge noe å lære av Danmark? Altinget.no. Vis sammendrag

  Mister vi noe når stemmegivningen strekkes ut over mange uker? I vårt naboland, Danmark, er valgdeltagelsen på et nivå som vi i Norge bare kan beundre og kanskje bli litt misunnelige på, skriver forsker I ved Institutt for samfunnsforskning, Signe Bock Segaard.

• Hesstvedt, Stine & Saglie, Jo (2023). Centre and periphery: a changing cleavage in Norwegian politics? . Vis sammendrag

  In the literature of electoral politics, geography has been rediscovered as a political cleavage. Traditionally, the work of Lipset and Rokkan (1967) described the urban-rural cleavage as a power struggle over economic resources and national identity that cut across other cleavages. Current research, however, finds increased overlap in attitudes, depicting the rise of a green, progressive and left-leaning urban electorate and a nationalist and conservative rural population that contributes to elevated levels of polarization. This paper provides new knowledge about the development of the urban-rural cleavage in European multi-party systems over time, by analysing six decades of unique survey data from Norway, where the cleavage have been persistently vital to electoral politics. Specifically, we study changes in the attitudes of rural and urban populations towards new and old politics issues between 1957 and 2021. We also assess the changing content and saliency of the urban-rural cleavage by making use of Most Important Issue (MIP) survey questions. Overall, the paper contributes with novel insights of the development of a century-old cleavage that has again come to the fore in electoral politics.

• Hesstvedt, Stine & Saglie, Jo (2023). Cross-cutting or overlapping? The urban-rural cleavage in a historical perspective. Vis sammendrag

  In the literature of electoral politics, geography has been rediscovered as a political cleavage. Traditionally, the work of Lipset and Rokkan (1967) described the urban-rural cleavage as a power struggle over economic resources and the centre–periphery cleavage as a struggle over national identity. Both of these cut across other cleavages. Current research, however, finds increased overlap in attitudes, depicting the rise of a green, progressive and left-leaning urban electorate and a nationalist and conservative rural population that contributes to elevated levels of polarization. This paper provides new knowledge about the development of the urban-rural cleavage in European multi-party systems over time, by analysing six decades of unique survey data from Norway. We ask: How and to what extent has the urban-rural cleavage become more overlapping or cross-cutting since the 1950s and until today? Specifically, we study changes in the attitudes of rural and urban populations towards new and old politics issues between 1977 and 2021. We also assess the changing content and saliency of the urban-rural cleavage by making use of Most Important Issue (MIP) survey questions. Overall, the paper contributes with novel insights of the development of a century-old cleavage that has again come to the fore in electoral politics.

• Shamshiri-Petersen, Ditte & Segaard, Signe Bock (2022). Hvad synes du om valgkampen? Forskere beder om hjælp via ny app. videnskab.dk.
• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2022). Norway: Political Developments and Data in 2021. Victory for the Centre-Left. European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. 61(1), s. 351–361. doi: 10.1111/2047-8852.12377. Vis sammendrag

  The main political event in Norway in 2021 was the Storting (parliamentary) election in September. After eight years of rule by a Conservative Party/Høyre Prime Minister, the 2021 election was a decisive win for the centre-left. However, it was a win by a fragmented group of five parties, only two of which ended up forming the new government. Despite the new large centre-left majority in Parliament, the new government, like the previous one, is a minority government. The Covid-19 pandemic dominated Norwegian life through much of 2021, with two large-scale lockdowns early in the year and in December. While the last (December) lockdown was a bit controversial, the government's handling of the pandemic was largely depoliticized. The main issues for voters in the election were environmental issues (including climate change). The pandemic did not register as an important issue among voters.

• Segaard, Signe Bock (2021). Sådan blev Norge klar til at holde valg med høje smittetal. [Radio]. Danmarks Radio, P1 Morgen.
• Segaard, Signe Bock (2021). Demokratiet må utvikle seg i tråd med tiden . Kommunal rapport. s. 19–19.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle; Karlsen, Rune; Steen-Johnsen, Kari & Beyer, Audun (2021). Misinformed or uninformed? A panel-study of how the use of social media as a news source influences political knowledge .
• Haugsgjerd, Atle & Linde, Jonas (2021). Vehicles of democratic dissatisfaction? Populist radical right electoral success and satisfaction with democracy in Europe 1976-2019.
• Segaard, Signe Bock (2021). Det gode lokaldemokrati? Selvstyre, velferd og politisk tillit.
• Bergh, Johannes & Karlsen, Rune (2021). Norway: Political Developments and Data in 2020. European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. doi: 10.1111/2047-8852.12325.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle (2021). En europeisk vänstersväng? Om det norska valet.
• de Blok, Lisanne & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2021). Take a Chance on Me: Experienced Risk and Political Trust.
• Segaard, Signe Bock (2021). Det må bli et klimavalg. [Avis]. Dagsavisen.
• Bergh, Johannes & Christensen, Dag Arne (2020). Ulikhet i innvandrernes valgdeltakelse i Norge. I Segaard, Signe Bock (Red.), Det norske lokaldemokratiets legitimitet. Tillit, deltakelse og ulikhet. Institutt for samfunnsforskning. s. 81–95. Vis sammendrag

  Hvor mye «goodwill» i form av legitimitet og folkets tillit har lokaldemokratiet, dets aktører og institusjoner egentlig å gå på? I denne rapporten belyser vi, ved hjelp av forskjellige perspektiver og et omfattende datamateriale, ulike aspekter ved politisk tillit og demokratisk legitimitet. Premisset vårt er at hvis demokratiet – og det lokale selvstyret mer spesifikt – skal fungere i praksis, må det ha oppslutning i befolkningen. På denne måten handler rapporten om grunnlaget for lokalpolitisk legitimitet og tillit, slik det ligger ikke bare i sosial og politisk (u)likhet i deltakelse og representasjon, men også i de systemer, medvirkningsstrukturer og prosesser som eksisterer i demokratiet, særlig på lokalt nivå. Rapporten retter søkelyset mot spesifikke problemstillinger knyttet til politisk og sosial (u) likhet i deltakelse og politisk tillit som så belyses gjennom empiriske analyser ut fra ulike perspektiver: innbyggerperspektiv, politikerperspektiv, systemperspektiv og prosessperspektiv. Hensikten er å forsøke å forstå generelle mønstre i utviklingen og statusen for den lokalpolitiske legitimiteten og tilliten: Hva skyldes disse mønstrene, og hvilke konsekvenser har de? Det er ikke mulig å gi entydige svar og ei heller å belyse alle årsaker og konsekvenser, men i denne rapporten vil noen av disse bli undersøkt og drøftet nærmere. Avslutningsvis samles trådene, og legitimiteten til det norske demokrati anno 2020 – og lokaldemokrati spesielt – drøftes.

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