Birth rates in Norway have steadily declined from 2009 to the record-low level of 1.4 children per woman in 2023. This development is not unique to Norway: Around the world, birth rates are falling below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman), suggesting a global cultural shift. At the same time, there are important within-country differences in the decline.
It mainly affects younger people, and birth rates have fallen more among those with lower education and income. It is particularly striking that childlessness has increased more among men than among women, and that men’s childlessness and birth rates are increasingly linked to education and income levels.
That birth rates are falling in all countries and especially among those with the lowest income challenges existing theory and empirical research. In this project, we use detailed Norwegian data to examine which new explanations may underlie the different patterns in the decline in birth rates.
The project is divided into three parts:
- The first part will identify and quantify the most important social and economic drivers behind the increasing inequality in number of children and childlessness.
- The second part will provide new knowledge about the distribution, development, and significance of attitudes and desires regarding children.
- The third part will shed light on the role of partnership formation and internal negotiations in explaining inequality and the decline in birth rates.
