Lost in Transition? Uncovering Social and Health Consequences of Sub-Optimal Transitions in the Education System

• Beck, Kathryn Christine; Hellstrand, Julia & Myrskylä, Mikko (2026). More Education and Fewer Children? The Contribution of Educational Enrollment and Attainment to the Fertility Decline in Norway. Demography. doi: 10.1215/00703370-12475875. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abstract Period fertility has declined rapidly in Norway in the 2010s, reaching record lows. Although there is a clear education‒fertility dynamic, significant educational shifts have occurred and it is unclear how much this contributed to recent fertility declines. To disentangle this, we utilize high-quality Norwegian register data and model yearly transitions between educational enrollment, educational attainment, and childbearing for men and women born in 1964‒2006. Using a counterfactual simulation approach, we explore the contribution of educational expansion versus lower fertility within educational groups to the decline in period and cohort fertility. Forecasting is used to complete fertility for cohorts aged 30+. We found that educational expansion contributed partially to the observed cohort fertility decline (2.11 to 1.98 children) for 1964‒1978 female cohorts but stagnated for younger cohorts. The predicted decline thereafter (to 1.59 children by the 1992 cohort), as well as the 2010s period fertility decline, was fully driven by decreased fertility across educational levels. For men, educational expansion was slower and did not contribute to fertility decline. For both genders, the contribution of changed fertility behavior was strongest among the low and medium educated, particularly for predicted ultimate childlessness. Our results suggest that increased education is not the main fertility barrier in contemporary Norway. Instead, falling birth rates, particularly among lower educated groups, are driving the fertility decline for both genders.

• Flatø, Martin; Bratsberg, Bernt Magne; Kotsadam, Andreas; Torvik, Fartein Ask; Røgeberg, Ole & Stoltenberg, Camilla (2025). Ready for school? Effects on school starters of establishing school psychology offices in Norway. Education Economics. p. 1–19. doi: 10.1080/09645292.2025.2588588. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We consider long-term impacts of establishing school psychology offices in Norway. In the 1960s, these offices assessed school readiness resulting in increased postponement of schooling for children born late in the year. We find a positive effect of establishing offices in the 1967–1970 period on adult income, with stronger effects for younger children in each cohort, males, and children in low-income families. After a legislative change in 1976, the offices could reject applications for delayed school entry. In this period, we find no overall benefits of establishing an office, and negative effects on adult earnings for males and disadvantaged children.

• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2025). The later the better? A novel approach to estimating the effect of school starting age on ADHD and academic skills. European Sociological Review. 41(5), p. 675–688. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcaf004. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine; Hart, Rannveig Kaldager & Flatø, Martin (2024). School Starting Age, Fertility, and Family Formation: Evidence From the School Entry Cutoff Using Exact Date of Birth. Demography. 61(6), p. 1999–2026. doi: 10.1215/00703370-11686231. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In the past 50 years, the age at first birth in Norway and other European countries has shifted, leading to concerns that individuals begin childbearing too late to reach their intended family size. This article analyzes the effect of school starting age on fertility and family formation by utilizing Norway's age-based school entry policy. Using individual-level register data and a regression discontinuity design, we find that being born after the age cutoff for school start results in an increased age at first birth of 2.9 months for women and 4.0 months for men, whereas completed cohort fertility was unchanged. Similarly, being born after the cutoff increased the age at first marriage by 4.7 months for women and 2.4 months for men, with no effect on the overall probability of having a partner. Results show that age at completed education and earnings development are important mechanisms in this fertility postponement. Additionally, we analyze detailed age- and parity-specific effects, providing important insights into how age at starting school affects fertility timing but not overall fertility.

• Beck, Kathryn Christine; Røhr, Helene Lie; Reme, Bjørn-Atle & Flatø, Martin (2023). Distressing testing: A propensity score analysis of high-stakes exam failure and mental health. Child Development. 95(1), p. 242–260. doi: 10.1111/cdev.13985. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This study used rich individual-level registry data covering the entire Norwegian population to identify students aged 17–21 who either failed a high-stakes exit exam or who received the lowest passing grade from 2006 to 2018. Propensity score matching on high-quality observed characteristics was utilized to allow meaningful comparisons (N = 18,052, 64% boys). Results showed a 21% increase in odds of receiving a psychological diagnosis among students who failed the exam. Adolescents were at 57% reduced odds of graduating and 44% reduction in odds of enrolling in tertiary education 5 years following the exam. Results suggest that failing a high-stakes exam is associated with mental health issues and therefore may impact adolescents more broadly than captured in educational outcomes.

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• Beck, Kathryn Christine; Hellstrand, Julia & Myrskylä, Mikko (2024). More Education and Fewer Children? The Contribution of Educational Enrollment and Attainment to the Fertility Decline in Norway. SocArXiv Papers. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/h9kg4. Full text in Research Archive

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• Flatø, Martin (2026). Forskningsmøte om biologi og læring. Innspill til utvalget om framtidens fellesskole. Full text in Research Archive
• Wörn, Jonathan & Evensen, Miriam (2026). Growing Educational Gaps in Childlessness, Employment, and Income: Explained by Changes in Resources and Abilities Available to Less-Educated Groups? SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/sb62p_v1. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin; Håberg, Siri Eldevik; Salvanes, Kari Vea; Skålholt, Asgeir; Wörn, Jonathan & Stoltenberg, Camilla [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2025). Lost in transition? Et seminar om overganger i skolesystemet. doi: https:/www.fhi.no/om/kurs-og-konferanser/lost-in-transition-et-seminar-om-overganger-i-skolesystemet/. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Overgang fra barnehage til skole, og ungdomsskole til videregående er eksempler på overganger som kan være vanskelige for mange. På dette seminaret får du ny innsikt i konsekvenser av disse overgangene, fra skolestart til fullføring av videregående opplæring. Det blir også en spennende panelsamtale mellom forskere, myndigheter og interessegrupper.

• Skålholt, Asgeir (2025). Fra utdanning til arbeid – konsekvenser av økt arbeidsledighet for nyutdannede yrkesfagelever. Full text in Research Archive
• Wandem, Fredrik Solli; Flatø, Martin & Larsen, Simen Mjøen (2025). Født sent på året: Urettferdig fra første skoledag? Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Ett band. Fem medlemmer. Alle født i november. Ingenting er på stell. De mener det er fordi de er født sent på året. Kan det være så enkelt? Forskning og erfaringer fra praksis viser at de kanskje er inne på noe.

• Wandem, Fredrik Solli; Flatø, Martin & Larsen, Simen Mjøen (2025). Podkast: Født sent på året – Urettferdig fra første skoledag? Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Ett band. Fem medlemmer. Alle født i november. Ingenting er på stell. De mener det er fordi de er født sent på året. Kan det være så enkelt? Forskning og erfaringer fra praksis viser at de kanskje er inne på noe.

• Jakobsen, Siw Ellen; Stoltenberg, Camilla & Flatø, Martin (2025). – Norge har et lite fleksibelt skolesystem. [Internet]. forskning.no. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Norsk skole bør se mer til Danmark for å hindre at så mange faller fra, ifølge Camilla Stoltenberg.

• Jakobsen, Siw Ellen; Flatø, Martin & Beck, Kathryn Christine (2025). Hvordan går det egentlig med desemberbarna? [Internet]. forskning.no. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Har du, eller venter du et desemberbarn? Da har forskerne både gode og dårlige nyheter til deg.

• Flatø, Martin; Beck, Kathryn Christine; Salvanes, Kari Vea; Skålholt, Asgeir & Stoltenberg, Camilla (2025). Forskning: En skjev start på skolen kan prege hele skolegangen. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Også senere i utdanningsløpet kan vanskelige overganger få langvarige negative konsekvenser, skriver forskere ved Folkehelseinstituttet, Institutt for samfunnsforskning, NIFU og NORCE. De mener overgangene i skolen fortjener nytenkning.

• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2025). The later the better? A novel approach to estimating the effect of school starting age on ADHD and academic skills. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2025). Senere skolestart og ADHD. [Radio]. NRK. Full text in Research Archive
• Wörn, Jonathan (2025). School Performance and Inequalities in Family Formation: A Population-Wide Register-Based Study from Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2025). Studie: Barn født tidlig på året har lavere risiko for ADHD. [Journal]. VG. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  FHI-studie viser at barn som er blant de eldste skolestarterne har lavere ADHD-risiko og bedre skoleresultater enn de yngste.

• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2025). FHI: Senere skolestart reduserer risikoen for ADHD. [Internet]. TV2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Barn som er blant de eldste når de starter på skolen, har betydelige lavere sannsynlighet for å få en ADHD-diagnose sammenlignet med de yngste, viser en ny studie.

• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2025). (+) FHI: Senere skolestart minker risikoen for ADHD-diagnoser. [Journal]. Psykologisk.no. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Å begynne på skolen ett år senere reduserer risikoen for å få en ADHD-diagnose med 59 prosent, fastslår en ny studie fra Folkehelseinstituttet.

• Beck, Kathryn Christine; Reisel, Liza & Torvik, Fartein Ask (2025). Forskere er uenige om fleksibel skolestart. [Journal]. Kilden. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Opptakssystemet favoriserer de eldste skolebarna, slår forsker fast. Er fleksibel skolestart løsningen?

• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2025). I Danmark får ett av ti barn utsatt skolestart. I Norge er Leif (6) én av de få som har fått vente. [Journal]. Aftenposten. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Veldig få barn får utsatt skolestart i Norge, selv om eksperter har anbefalt en mer fleksibel ordning. Forskning gir nye svar på hvordan det går med dem.

• Flatø, Martin (2025). Bekymret for fall i jentenes skoleprestasjoner. [Journal]. Utdanningsnytt. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Forskjellene mellom gutters og jenters resultater i ungdomsskolen blir mindre. Forsker frykter det skyldes jenters psykiske helse.

• Flatø, Martin (2025). Lesing som medisin! Bøker i et folkehelseperspektiv. doi: https:/www.arendalsuka.no/programsoek/details/21137. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin; Torvik, Fartein Ask; Monstad, Karin & Stoltenberg, Camilla (2025). Vi har et skrikende behov for kunnskap om barn. doi: https:/www.altinget.no/artikkel/vi-har-et-skrikende-behov-for-kunnskap-om-barn. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Fallende skoleprestasjoner og økt fravær avdekker et skrikende behov for kunnskap for å møte vår tids utfordringer. Til det trenger vi registre fra skoler og barnehager, skriver Martin Flatø, Fartein Ask Torvik, Karin Monstad og Camilla Stoltenberg.

• Stoltenberg, Camilla (2025). Nasjonale individregistre for barn. [TV]. Dagsnytt 18. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine; Hellstrand, Julia & Myrskylä, Mikko (2025). More Education and Fewer Children? The Contribution of Educational Enrollment andAttainment to the Fertility Decline in Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin (2025). Menn kan også bidra til økt fruktbarhet. Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.). Full text in Research Archive
• Salvanes, Kari Vea; Flatø, Martin & Skålholt, Asgeir (2025). Program Selectivity in Vocational Education and Training: Effects on School Completion and Mental Health. Social Science Research Network (SSRN). doi: 10.2139/ssrn.5203297. Full text in Research Archive
• Skålholt, Asgeir & Salvanes, Kari Vea (2025). Effects of business cycle fluctuations on the school-towork transition for vocational students -the role of general skills. Social Science Research Network (SSRN). doi: 10.2139/ssrn.5261645. Full text in Research Archive
• Salvanes, Kari Vea; Skålholt, Asgeir & Flatø, Martin (2025). Program selectivity in vocational education and training: effects on school completion and mental health. Full text in Research Archive
• Salvanes, Kari Vea; Flatø, Martin & Skålholt, Asgeir (2025). Program selectivity in vocational education and training: effects on school completion and mental health. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin (2024). Kjønnsforskjeller i utdanning og arbeidsliv. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2024). The Latter the Better? A Novel Approach to Estimating the Effect of School Starting Age on ADHD and Academic Skills. Full text in Research Archive
• Skålholt, Asgeir & Salvanes, Kari Vea (2024). Effects of business cycle fluctuations on the school-to-work transition for vocational students – the role of general skills. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine; Hart, Rannveig Kaldager & Flatø, Martin (2024). School Starting Age, Fertility, and Family Formation: Evidence from the School Entry Cutoff using Exact Date of Birth. Full text in Research Archive
• Salvanes, Kari Vea (2024). Effects of programme selectivity in vocational education and training on school completion and mental health. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine; Flatø, Martin & Hart, Rannveig Kaldager (2024). Januarbarn utsetter fødsler. Full text in Research Archive
• Torvik, Fartein Ask; Flatø, Martin; Reme, Bjørn-Atle & Stoltenberg, Camilla (2023). Derfor forsker FHI på gutter i skolen. p. 30–30. Full text in Research Archive
• Salvanes, Kari Vea (2023). Effects of programme selectivity in vocational education and training on school completion and mental health. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine; Reme, Bjørn-Atle; Røhr, Helene Lie; Flatø, Martin & Stoltenberg, Camilla (2023). Nederlag i skolen går hardest ut over guttene. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin & Torvik, Fartein Ask (2023). Kjønnsforskjeller i modenhet. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin; Reme, Bjørn-Atle; Stoltenberg, Camilla & Torvik, Fartein Ask (2023). Nyanser i gutteforskningen. Morgenbladet. Full text in Research Archive
• Torvik, Fartein Ask; Flatø, Martin & Stoltenberg, Camilla (2023). Derfor må fleksibel skolestart prøves ut. Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.). Full text in Research Archive
• Stoltenberg, Camilla; Torvik, Fartein Ask & Flatø, Martin (2023). Guttekrise? Søkelys på kjønn løser ikke alle problemer, men kanskje noen. Dagens næringsliv. Full text in Research Archive
• Torvik, Fartein Ask; Reeves, Richard; Reisel, Liza; Flatø, Martin; Seehuus, Sara Marie Jorunn & Solli, Ingeborg Caroline Foldøy [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2023). Seminar on Men’s Equity: Education, Earnings, Health and Fertility. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin (2023). Kjønnsforskjeller i skoleprestasjoner og utdanning. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2023). Testing til besvær: Konsekvenser av eksamen på ungdoms psykiske helse. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin; Bratsberg, Bernt Magne; Kotsadam, Andreas; Torvik, Fartein Ask; Røgeberg, Ole Jørgen & Stoltenberg, Camilla (2023). Ready for School? Effects on School Starters of Establishing School Psychology Offices in Norway. CESifo Working Papers. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2023). Unge som strøk på eksamen, hadde høyere risiko for psykiske plager og stoffmisbruk. [Journal]. Forskning.no. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2023). Stryk på eksamen kan føre til psykiske plager. [Journal]. VG. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2023). Stryk på eksamen gir dårligere psykisk helse, ifølge FHI. [Journal]. Psykologisk.no. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin (2023). Strid om fleksibel skolestart. [TV]. NRK Dagsnytt 18. Full text in Research Archive
• Dregelid, Solrun; Flatø, Martin & Kravdal, Øystein (2023). Helt alene. [Internet]. Nettavisen. Full text in Research Archive
• Stoltenberg, Camilla; Torvik, Fartein Ask & Flatø, Martin (2023). «Guttekrisen» kan ikke avlyses – hverken helt eller nesten. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2023). Distressing Testing: A Propensity Score Analysis of High Stakes Exam Failure and Mental Health. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin (2023). Forskning på gutters utfordringer i skolen: Årsaker, konsekvenser og tiltak. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin (2023). Menn og det moderne arbeidslivet. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2023). The Effect of School Starting Age on Later Life Fertility and Family Formation. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin (2023).  Ready for School? Effects on school starters of establishing school psychology offices in Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2023). The Manipulation of Birth Timing and a Novel Approach to School Starting Age and ADHD. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin (2022). Menns helse og utenforskap. Full text in Research Archive
• Wörn, Jonathan (2022). School performance and family formation in early adulthood. Full text in Research Archive
• Kinge, Jonas Minet & Flatø, Martin (2022). Helseforskjeller starter i barndommen. Full text in Research Archive
• Christine, Beck Kathryn; Røhr, Helene Lie; Reme, Bjørn-Atle & Flatø, Martin (2022). Distressing Testing: A Propensity Score Analysis of High Stakes Exam Failure and Mental Health. Full text in Research Archive
• Skålholt, Asgeir (2022). Generalizing Vocational Education – Effects on Completion in Upper Secondary in Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2022). A Propensity Score Analysis of High Stakes Exam Failure and Mental Health. Full text in Research Archive
• Beck, Kathryn Christine (2022). The Effect of High-Stakes Exam Failure on Mental Health. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatø, Martin (2021). Kjønnsforskjeller i skoleprestasjoner. Full text in Research Archive

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