Sammendrag av paperet som skal presenteres på seminaret:
In January 2025, Norway reformed the contractual early retirement scheme (AFP) in the public sector. For employees born in 1963 or later, the AFP benefit was changed from a temporary, income-tested pension between ages 62–67 to a lifelong, actuarially adjusted supplement from age 62 that is unaffected by labor earnings. Earlier cohorts remained under the previous rules. We evaluate the immediate labor supply effects of this reform using individual-level payroll data from Norway's microdata.no platform. Our empirical strategy compares outcomes for the reform cohort (born January 1963) with those of the pre-reform cohort (born January 1962), aligning individuals on the month they turn 62. The research design was developed before post-reform data was available and documented in a publicly available pre-analysis plan. The design was supported by minor differences in pre-eligibility labor supply between cohorts and negligible placebo effects using earlier cohorts. Results show clear and persistent effects on labor supply. Weekly working hours increased by between 1.4 and 1.8 hours in the first month after turning 62, corresponding to roughly a 5–6 percent rise relative to the pre-reform baseline. The reform effect remains positive through at least five months after eligibility, with some evidence of a strengthening impact over time. Monthly wage income rose on average by NOK 3,000 (about 6 percent, in 2024 kroner). We find that extensive margin adjustment is the main driver -- fewer people transition from full-time or long part-time to zero hours after the reform. Sector and gender breakdowns reveal heterogeneous effects: the strongest increase in working hours is observed among men in the municipal sector, the weakest among men in the state sector, and intermediate effects among women. Overall, the restructuring of the AFP scheme produced an immediate and sustained rise in labor supply and earnings among newly eligible public-sector employees.